00:00Max Freed, he's on the bump today in Kansas City for the Pinstripes as they take on the KC Royals.
00:06Of course, a postseason rematch of the division series a year ago.
00:10The Yanks a minus 200 favorite inside Kauffman Stadium tonight.
00:14Total eight and a half.
00:17Minus 200 on the road, even with Freed on the bump.
00:20Is it too steep in favor of those Yanks?
00:23Look, Noah Cameron has been really good on the season.
00:26119 total batters faced on the season.
00:28I've got an 0.64 ISO and a weighted on base percentage of 194.
00:32Now, he's doing this a little bit with smoke and mirrors.
00:34Why do I say that?
00:34He's only got a 16% K rate, which is really hard to do, which means baseball is getting put in play.
00:39Eventually, you're all going to get damaged.
00:41Now, here's the interesting part about it again when we take a look at the ERA as compared to the analytics.
00:46Noah Cameron in the last 30 days, 25 of the third innings pitched here.
00:49He's got a 1.07 ERA, which is spectacular.
00:52But that XFIP is at a 4.27, a market disagreement between what he's given up and what he possibly should have given up.
01:02And now you're taking a look at temperatures at 83 degrees here at Kauffman Stadium and a light wind blowing out.
01:07You've got four mashers in that lineup against left-handed pitching over the past month.
01:11That's Paul Goldschmidt with a .238 ISO power number.
01:13That's Ben Rice with a .462 ISO power number.
01:16Aaron Judge with a .250 ISO.
01:18And Cody Bellinger at a .259.
01:20All of those guys as well with high weighted on base percentages and high walk rates.
01:24We're expecting traffic on the bases.
01:26I don't know if I want to lay a minus 200, even though Max Fried is sensational.
01:29Cameron's been a good pitcher, but does it catch up to him tonight against those New York Yankees?
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