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00:00So, of course, the big news on Thursday afternoon that we broke down for you here on a Friday morning on the early line was Aaron Rodgers signing with the Pittsburgh Steelers.
00:10And one of Donnie's main questions was not exactly how this changes things for the Steelers.
00:15Does it make them a conference contender?
00:18But what would the financials be behind this maneuver?
00:21And would that make sense for Pittsburgh as well?
00:24Well, on Saturday, DRS, we got our answer.
00:28Steelers quarterback Aaron Rodgers was in the team's training facility to sign his one-year $13.65 million contract that includes $10 million guaranteed and has a max value of $19.5 million.
00:44The deal includes $5.85 million worth of playtime and team performance incentives.
00:50So, there you go, DRS.
00:52That is the structure of the one-year deal for Aaron Rodgers in the Steel City.
00:56What do you make of it?
00:58I like it.
00:58I like it a lot here.
00:59And if you say, okay, how did you get that $20 million?
01:02Understand this, what it probably means.
01:03First-team All-Pro, NFL MVP, and Super Bowl champions.
01:07You probably get all of that.
01:08That would equate to the Steelers would probably be happy to pay him $75 million if he was able to do that.
01:12But I like that because it shows that you didn't break the bank.
01:16And it was a one-year deal, which caught me off guard a little bit because that says, you know what?
01:19That doesn't sound like, Ben, that's a one-year $38 million contract.
01:22But you can't do that in the NFL.
01:23You got to spread those years out over, let's just say, if you signed a three-year deal, like, wow, he really went for the money.
01:28Because even if he only plays one year, you spread the cap hits over year two and year three.
01:32So, it's not that bad if he retires or you have to cut him.
01:34But the fact that it's a one-year deal and all-encompassing this season, which is great because now you can say, if he's playing really well, maybe open up the books a little bit and extend that into the next two to three years.
01:44Even lower that cap a bit more, give him a little bit more money, thank you for this, and we might be able to play you until you're 42, 43, or 44 years old.
01:51But also from a standpoint of what other quarterbacks are making in the NFL.
01:55And I know it's wrong to do this, but guys like Brock Purdy signing 50-plus million per year, and I got Aaron Rodgers at $13 million a year.
02:04I'm not comparing a bet.
02:05I'm not saying the two different situations there in San Francisco and Pittsburgh are different.
02:09But I'm just trying to use that leverage by saying there's a lot of quarterbacks making five times the amount that he is making.
02:16Maybe you are getting Aaron Rodgers on a bargain.
02:18I like to see it.
02:19Do I think it's going to turn into a Super Bowl?
02:20Nope.
02:21Do I think they'll be competitive?
02:22Absolutely.
02:23But I like the fact that this wasn't like, ha-ha, Steelers.
02:26I told you I would come back, but you know what?
02:28I told you $15 million.
02:30It's $30 million now.
02:31And they'd be like, we don't have anywhere else to go but sign you for $30 million.
02:34You got us.
02:34Oh, well.
02:35We'll see how it turns out.
02:36I like the fact that it was very manageable.
02:38That's a plus sign for the Steelers.
02:40I really agree, DRS.
02:42Anywhere north of $20 million, it would have been like, okay, what are we doing here?
02:48And this guy Aaron Rodgers, who claims he's not in it for the money at the age of 41,
02:52about to enter year number 21 of his NFL career, what exactly is the scenario?
02:58I think this is very fair, very equitable, very reasonable on both sides.
03:0313.65 for this season.
03:0610 mil guaranteed.
03:07Let's compare it to a couple other one-year deals around the National Football League.
03:12First, a veteran, Russell Wilson, has a contract with the Giants that can be worth nearly 21 mil,
03:19but it's 10.5 mil guaranteed.
03:21That's pretty similar to the Aaron Rodgers deal with the Pittsburgh Steelers.
03:2513.65 in terms of that annual average value, DRS.
03:30Daniel Jones, Sunday one-year, $14 million deal in Indianapolis.
03:34Thus, Aaron Rodgers being in that ballpark at this stage of his career on a one-year loan virtually in the Steel City makes a ton of sense to me.
03:44So the financial details, they check out.
03:47As Donnie and I broke down the entirety of Friday, does it really move the needle?
03:51Is Aaron Rodgers better than Mason Rudolph?
03:54Yeah.
03:55For a Steelers team, that win total is eight and a half, knowing the standard that Mike Tomlin has set over nearly two decades in Pittsburgh.
04:03Does it make them a winning football team?
04:06Yeah, probably.
04:07Could they even win 10 games and get to the playoffs?
04:09Sure, they've done that in four of the last five seasons with very mediocre or slightly above average quarterback play.
04:17Does it make them a conference contender or a team that can win a playoff game for the first time since 2016?
04:23I think both Donnie and I still have our doubts.
04:26Here are the odds, DRS, for Aaron Rodgers, the individual at the QB spot for the Steelers.
04:32His season-long passing yards prop, 3,300 and a half.
04:36To get to 4K, that would be plus 380.
04:39Those numbers on the bottom are certainly very unlikely in terms of how long they are to win MVP or Offensive Player of the Year.
04:49Aaron Rodgers last season, under 3,800 passing yards or slightly above.
04:54The last time even a Steelers quarterback, DRS, threw for more than 3,300 in a season was Ben Roethlisberger in his final NFL season back in 2021 when he finished with 3,740.
05:09So Aaron Rodgers, even a flirt with those numbers on your screen would be an upgrade for an individual at the quarterback spot over the last three seasons or so.
05:18Yeah, three of those four numbers on the graphic would be wildly entertaining.
05:23He's not going to be Offensive Player of the Year.
05:24He's not going to win the MVP, and I don't think he gets to 4,000 yards.
05:273,300, just based on Aaron Rodgers' career, like, yeah, he should get that in his sleep.
05:31It's less than 200 yards per game here for a 17-game season.
05:34The question is, will he play all 17?
05:36And also, that Arthur Smith offense and Mike Tomlin going, hey, we got that 14-3 lead in the third quarter.
05:41Let's not really press it down.
05:42That'll be interesting to see.
05:44I'd be willing to bet that he does get 3,300 yards.
05:46That is a low bar.
05:47But also understand this from a betting philosophy on the Aaron Rodgers move to the Pittsburgh Steelers.
05:52I always get a kick out of this, Ben.
05:53Ah!
05:54Aaron signed with them.
05:56Didn't even move the odds, man, on winning the Super Bowl where their team went to them.
06:00You idiot.
06:00It was baked into the number.
06:01We knew he was going to the Steelers.
06:03That's been months in advance with those price points.
06:06So, I always get a kick out of, like, this move was so bad, none of the numbers moved.
06:09Because we all knew, outside of you, that he was going to the Pittsburgh Steelers, people.
06:14So, understand that.
06:15But 3,300 yards should be doable.
06:17You got D.K. Metcalf.
06:18You got Aaron Rodgers.
06:20You should be winning the majority of your games, which, again, is a slight majority,
06:23where if we think we're going to win nine games out of eight, you should have the lead in a lot of those.
06:27He should get that.
06:27He should get the 3,300 yards passing.
06:30Yes, he really should, DRS.
06:32It's a great point, by the way, about the odds for Pittsburgh.
06:35It was the largest elephant in the room, the worst-kept secret around the NFL.
06:39Aaron Rodgers was going to sign with the Pittsburgh Steelers.
06:42Just a matter of when, at least that was the expectation, so the oddsmakers factor it into their season outlook in 2025 for the Steelers.
06:52Aaron Rodgers, as we shared on Friday, in his 20-year NFL career, has played 14 seasons where he has been out there for at least 15 games.
07:01In all 14 of those years, DRS, he has never thrown for less than 3,695 yards.
07:09So if he is relatively healthy, and even the Steelers aren't great, or the offense looks poor, he's going to go over 3,300 and a half.
07:18More on the early line up next.