00:00Namaskar friends, India holding the Indus Waters Treaty in abeyance in response to Pakistan's role in the
00:16Pahlgaar massacre has drawn attention to the treaty itself and also to the precarious situation of
00:22water in Pakistan. In fact, this is Pakistan's worst nightmare. I am Tilak Diveshir and you are watching
00:30The Great Game Reloaded. The decision to hold the Indus Waters Treaty in abeyance was based on the
00:36assertion of Prime Minister Modi that blood and water cannot flow together at the same time. Made
00:43after the 2016 Pakistan sponsored Uri attack in which 18 Indian soldiers were killed. The Prime
00:51Minister, while referring to the Indus Water Treaty, was expressing India's frustration that its
00:56generosity over the treaty was being met with Pakistan's continued terrorist attacks on Indian soil.
01:04So what is the Indus Waters Treaty? The 1960 Indus Water Treaty had divided the six rivers of the Indus
01:12Basin between India and Pakistan. Of the total water in the Indus system, India got only 20% from the
01:20eastern rivers of Ravi, Bias and Satlaj. Pakistan got over 80% from the western rivers of Indus, Jhelum and Chenab.
01:29However, India could use these western rivers for non-consumptive purposes like irrigation,
01:37hydropower and navigation. India also paid 162 million dollars for the construction of dams in Pakistan.
01:45Today, almost 85% of hydroelectricity and 95% of water storage in Pakistan is because of the storage
01:55built as a consequence of the treaty and Indian money. What does holding the treaty in abeyance really mean?
02:03Does it mean that India could store or even divert the Indus waters? Does India have the capacity to do so?
02:10At the moment, India has run of the river hydropower plants on the western rivers that do not store massive amounts of water.
02:17These would include the 330 MW Kishan Ganga and the under construction 850 MW Ratlay projects
02:25that use the force of running water to drive the turbines and generate electricity.
02:30These do not impede the flow of the rivers into Pakistan.
02:35The combined storage capacity of Indian projects on the western rivers is modest compared to the extensive infrastructure
02:43that India has built on the eastern rivers like the Bhakara Dam on the Satluj, the Pong Dam on the Bias and the Ranjit Sagar Dam on the Ravi.
02:52Now, however, with the treaty being held in abeyance, there is a possibility that India could either modify existing infrastructure
03:01or build new storage structures or divert waters of the western rivers.
03:06Were India to start managing the flow with its potential infrastructure, Pakistan would feel the impact, especially during the rise season when water availability is already low
03:18and when the predictability and timing of flows is important.
03:22While this is in the future, India can do three things at present.
03:26One, not share hydrological data of flows. Such data is critical for Pakistan to plan for irrigation, hydropower, drinking water and flood forecasting.
03:37Two, not notify Pakistan about the projects it is building on the western rivers and neither accept visits by Pakistani officials.
03:46Three, flush silt from its dams without prior warning.
03:52Flushing is a method that is used to clear sediments from dams by flushing water through the bottom outlets and pushing the sediment downstream.
04:02Indus and its tributaries carry large levels of silt that collect in dams.
04:08Sudden flushing of this silt could have significant consequences downstream.
04:13The understanding that was reached between the directed journals of military operations of India and Pakistan on 10th May on the cessation of hostilities does not include the Indus Water Treaty that continues to be held in abeyance.
04:27One important facet that Pakistan has not been talking about is that India had been pushing for the renegociation of the Indus Water Treaty for some time.
04:37India's contention is that the treaty should take into account latest engineering techniques and factors in climate change, demographic changes and the need for renewable energy.
04:50In fact, the treaty provides for negotiations for a new treaty but Pakistan has been stonewalling the matter so far.
04:58Pakistan has been shocked by India's bold move leading to absurd statements from Pakistan leaders even though they are meant to assuage domestic audiences.
05:09Recently, Pakistan People's Party chief Bilawal Bhutto threatened, and I quote,
05:14either our water will flow through it or their blood will, unquote.
05:18While he said this in the context of India, it was also aimed at Pakistan-Punjab that is trying to construct six canals on the Indus to irrigate the Cholistan desert.
05:28The Director General ISPR claimed, and I quote,
05:31If you stop our water, we will stop your breathing, unquote.
05:36In this, he was echoing L.E.T. Supremo Hafiz Saeed.
05:40This showed how rattled Pakistan has been by India holding the Indus Water Treaty in abeyance.
05:46Pakistan knows that India does not have the large infrastructure to stop the waters of the three western rivers, but it is still rattled. Why?
05:55From being a water-abundant country in 1951, Pakistan today is a water-scarce one, and heading towards absolute water scarcity.
06:05Population is growing at 2.55% and mismanagement of its water resources are the primary reasons.
06:12Some statistics will help to understand the problem.
06:16The annual per capita availability of water in Pakistan has declined to under 1,000 cubic meters, making it a water-scarce country.
06:26The country is expected to become absolute water-scarce, less than 500 cubic meters per capita per annum by 2035 or even earlier.
06:36Absolute water scarcity means drought-like conditions in parts of the country.
06:41Pakistan has built only three major storage facilities – Mangla on the Jhelam, Tarbela on the Indus, and the Chashma Baraj on the Indus.
06:50That can store only 10% of the inflow. The world average is 40%.
06:56Without adequate storage, about 30 million acre-feet of water in the Indus in the surplus months flows it to the sea.
07:05To put it in perspective, this is equivalent to more than the entire water of the Chinab River, or twice the existing storage capacity of Pakistan.
07:16Just imagine, the entire water of the Chinab flowing into the sea because Pakistan does not have storage capacity.
07:24The cost of lack of storage capacity had been calculated at approximately 21 billion US dollars a few years ago and is today estimated at 29 billion US dollars.
07:37Then, Pakistan's irrigation is highly inefficient. Only about 36% of water reaches the field from the river. 64% gets wasted in transmission.
07:48There are other issues too, like growing salinity and especially the ingress of saline water into the over-pumped freshwater aquifers and the issue of sedimentation.
08:00Sedimentation or silting has severely reduced the storage capacity of the storage reservoirs – Tarbela and Mangla.
08:09The result? These dams are reaching dead levels by March, reducing water supplies for agriculture in critical months.
08:17The UN estimates that water demand in Pakistan is growing at an annual rate of 10%.
08:23This demand is projected to rise to 274 million acre-feet by 2025, while total water availability by 2025 is not likely to change from the current approximately 200 million acre-feet.
08:39This gap of 74 million acre-feet is almost two-thirds of the entire Indus River's current annual average flow.
08:48Where does Pakistan get another Indus River from? Because there isn't another Indus River.
08:53Now you can understand why Pakistan is rattled. Even without India holding the Indus Water Treaty in abeyance, Pakistan faces a serious deteriorating water security situation.
09:04Simply put, it is running out of water. Disruptions in water flows by India holding the treaty in abeyance would cause a multiplier effect.
09:13It would be catastrophic for Pakistan where irrigated agriculture plays such a dominant part in the economy on which 60% of the population is dependent and any decrease in crop yields will affect both livelihoods and food security.
09:30Let me end this episode with an interesting anecdote, though unrelated to water, from the last days of the British Raj from my book, Pakistan at the Helm.
09:40To discuss the partition plan, Lord Mountbatten, the last Governor-General, had called a meeting on 2 June 1947 of one representative each from the Congress, the Muslim League and from the Sikh community.
09:54Jinnah asked for more time to consider, but Mountbatten told him firmly, and I quote,
10:01Mr. Jinnah, I do not intend to let you wreck all the work that has gone into this settlement. Since you will not accept it for the Muslim League, I will speak for them myself.
10:14Unquote.
10:15Mountbatten added that the next morning, he would announce to all the leaders that Jinnah had given him an assurance with which he was satisfied and on no account would he allow Jinnah to contradict him.
10:28He continued, and I quote, after this announcement, when I look at you Mr. Jinnah, you would nod, signifying that whatever I am saying is correct. Unquote.
10:39At the meeting held the next morning on 3 June 1947, when Mountbatten looked at him, Jinnah dutifully nodded his head.
10:47This raises the interesting question, if the Muslim League or Jinnah had actually accepted the decision of the 3rd June Partition Plan.
10:57The proposal and counter-proposals were made on behalf of the Muslim League by Mountbatten on the basis that he was given the authority to represent and decide on behalf of the party.
11:09Whether the Muslim League had given this authority or whether Mountbatten grabbed this initiative remains an untold story.
11:18Thank you for watching. See you again soon with another topic and another anecdote. Until then, I am Tilak Divesha. Namaskar and Jai Hind.
11:28Namaskar and Jai Hind.
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