00:00What happens when water becomes a weapon? On April 23rd, 2025, India took an unprecedented step
00:08announcing that the Indus Waters Treaty, a landmark water-sharing agreement with Pakistan,
00:13is now in abeyance. The Indus Waters Treaty of 1960 will be held in abeyance with immediate effect
00:20until Pakistan credibly and irrevocably abjures its support for cross-border terrorism.
00:26The move came just days after the terror attack in Pahalgam that left 26 civilians dead
00:32and reignited tensions between the two nuclear-armed neighbors.
00:36For over six decades, the Indus Waters Treaty withstood the pressures of conflict,
00:40surviving the wars of 1965, 1971, and the 1999 Kargil War, as well as decades of political strain.
00:49Now, for the first time, India signals a formal departure.
00:53Welcome to Deep Dive with Outlook.
00:56I'm Aranya Mukherjee, and today we will explore the history, legal frameworks,
01:01and implications of the abeyance on Indo-Pakistan relations.
01:05But what does this suspension really mean? Can a country simply pause an internationally binding
01:11treaty? And at what cost? The Indus Waters Treaty, brokered by the World Bank in 1960,
01:17divides control over six rivers between India and Pakistan. Pakistan received the three western rivers,
01:24Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab. India retained control over the eastern rivers, Ravi, Bayas, and Sutlej. The treaty
01:31allowed for India to have limited agricultural use and hydroelectric development on the western rivers,
01:38but did not permit any alteration to their natural flow. Projects like the Baglihar Dam on the Chenab and later
01:45the Kishan Ganga project on the tributary of the Jhelum sparked regular disputes. Pakistan accused India of
01:52violating the treaty's intent alleging that withholding and manipulation of vital hydrological data occurred.
02:00India has maintained that it has operated within the treaty's parameters.
02:04So, can a treaty simply be paused? Under international law, the answer is not so straightforward.
02:10Under the Vienna Convention of the Law of Treaties signed by both India and Pakistan, international
02:16treaties are binding. Suspension is allowed only under what is called Article 62, which requires a
02:23fundamental change of circumstances that makes the treaty impossible to carry out. Legal experts remain
02:29divided on whether the Pahlkam attack meets that threshold. The Indian government argues that it
02:34can no longer sustain cooperation after repeated cross-border attacks. Pakistan has dismissed the
02:40linkage, rejecting the claim as unfair and unlawful, warning that this move could violate global diplomatic
02:47norms as well as Article 54 of the Geneva Convention that prohibits attacks on civilian objects like water
02:54infrastructure, especially if it's essential for the survival of civilian populations. There's more
03:00than just legality at stake. For Pakistan, the Indus is not just a river system, it is an agricultural
03:05backbone. Over 80 percent of farmland and around one-third of hydropower generated depends on water from the
03:13Indus Basin. Experts say that India lacks the massive storage infrastructure and extensive canal systems
03:20needed to withhold tens of billions of cubic meters of water from the western rivers.
03:26Even if infrastructure is created, the suspension's immediate impact is limited by geography.
03:31Roughly 97 percent of Pakistan's water flows naturally, driven by glacial melts and monsoon rains.
03:39India's capacity to regulate this flow, as of now, is restricted to around 1.5 million acre-feet,
03:46a fraction of the total amount. The danger for Pakistan lies in the long term. If India builds
03:52a full 3.6 million acre-feet of storage, it could manipulate seasonal flows, delay critical water
04:00releases, especially during Pakistan's sowing seasons. Whether the Indus will provide a bridge for cooperation
04:06or become another front for conflict will depend on how both nations and the world respond in the months
04:12ahead. Thank you for watching Deep Dive with Outlook and stay tuned for more explainers like this.
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