00:00In the unfortunate event of a large-scale conflict between India and Pakistan,
00:04how do you think Indian Muslims will react? Will they stand with India, or will they support
00:10Pakistan? This is a question that has been asked by many people, especially on social media.
00:17So today we thought we'll try to answer this question for you.
00:20Hello and welcome to the show. I am the host. To start with, let me tell you what a survey
00:27conducted in 2019 found. It found that 78% of Indian Muslims would not support Pakistan
00:33if a war broke out between India and Pakistan. The same survey found that 18% of Indian Muslims
00:41would support Pakistan in such a war, and only 4% said that they would support the Indian state.
00:48Now this survey was conducted three years ago. Do you think the numbers would be different today?
00:53Let us know in the comments. But before we move further, let me tell you about the survey.
00:59It was conducted by a Muslim polling agency called the Muslim Public Affairs Research Center,
01:05or MPARC. MPER is an independent Muslim polling agency based in New Delhi. It was set up to gauge
01:12Muslim opinion on a range of political issues, especially those concerning the Muslim community.
01:18It aims to be the interface between Muslim public opinion and policymaking. The survey was conducted
01:25between December 2018 and January 2019. A total of 200 Muslim respondents were interviewed for the
01:32survey across 16 states and Union territories. Now, this was not a mammoth survey, but it does give
01:39us some interesting insights into the minds of Indian Muslims. The survey asked Indian Muslims a range of
01:45questions like whether they felt more connected to Pakistan or to India, whether they wanted independence
01:51for Jammu and Kashmir, and whether they would support Pakistan in a war with India. So what did the survey
01:57find? For starters, it found that most Indian Muslims feel no connection with Pakistan. As far as their loyalty
02:04goes, they are first and foremost Indians. In fact, 92% of the respondents said that they felt more
02:11connected to India than to Pakistan. Only 4% chose Pakistan and 2% said that they did not feel connected to either
02:21country. The survey also asked Indian Muslims about their views on Article 370. You all know what that is. It was a
02:30special provision in the Indian constitution that gave special status to Jammu and Kashmir. India's parliament had the power
02:37to make laws on matters like trade, commerce and agriculture for Jammu and Kashmir. But after 50 years,
02:45this provision was revoked in August 2019. The Indian government said that the move was aimed at
02:51integrating Jammu and Kashmir more closely with the rest of the country. But Pakistan cried foul. It said
02:59that India's move was a violation of international law and the United Nations Security Council resolutions on
03:05Kashmir. It also said that the revocation would have a bearing on regional stability and called for
03:12restraint. What was the international response? Not much. The United States called for restraint, while the
03:19United Kingdom said that it was a domestic matter. Coming back to the survey, it found that most Indian
03:24Muslims were not too bothered about the abrogation of Article 370. In fact, 65% of the respondents said that
03:32they were not concerned about the removal of the article at all. They said that the decision did not
03:37affect their daily lives. 27% said that they were not in favor of the move, but it did not evoke much
03:44emotional response from them. And only 6% said that they were very much concerned about the abrogation of
03:51Article 370. So clearly Indian Muslims were not too emotionally invested in Pakistan's position on Kashmir.
03:59What about their position on a full-scale war between India and Pakistan? We'll come to that
04:04in a bit. But first, a quick word on the history of the partition. Most of you already know it, but here's
04:11a quick recap. After India got its independence from the British rule in 1947, the subcontinent was split
04:18into two separate states, India and Pakistan. This was done on the basis of religion. Muslim-majority areas
04:26became Pakistan, and Hindu-majority areas became India. This process led to the largest mass migration
04:34in the history of mankind. More than 10 million people crossed over to the newly formed states.
04:40They were followed by communal violence, and both countries inherited huge armies from the British,
04:46which then went on a rampage, killing hundreds of thousands of people. Today, the two countries still
04:52claimed the region of Kashmir, leading to multiple wars and cross-border terrorism. Now, coming back
04:59to the survey, it found that most Indian Muslims would not support Pakistan in a war with India.
05:05We told you those numbers at the beginning of the show. 78% respondents said that they would not
05:11support Pakistan if a war broke out. 18% said that they would support Pakistan, and 4% said that they
05:19would support India. So there you have it. Despite sharing a religion and a history, most Indian
05:26Muslims said that they would stand with India in a war against Pakistan. Why is that? Well, the survey
05:34does not go into the reasons behind these numbers. But analysts say that several factors could have
05:40influenced Indian Muslims' choice. For one, most Indian Muslims have little or no connection with
05:46Pakistan. For them, India is their homeland. They identify themselves as Indian first and Muslim
05:53second. In fact, many of them probably don't even know much about Pakistan's history or its people.
05:59So why would they want to fight alongside Pakistani soldiers? Then there's the fact that India is a much
06:05bigger and stronger country than Pakistan. So it's obvious that fighting alongside Pakistan would not have been a
06:12very attractive proposition for Indian Muslims. Finally, there is the example of Bangladesh. You see, Bangladesh was also
06:20carved out of Pakistan. It was initially called East Pakistan. When it broke away, it did not join India. Instead, it became its
06:29own independent country. So Indian Muslims could have been influenced by the example of Bangladesh while responding to the
06:36survey question. However, it is important to remember that these are just numbers. They cannot predict what each
06:42individual Muslim in India would do in such a situation. Also, these numbers could change if the war is being fought on the
06:50basis of religion, like a Hindu versus Muslim war. The survey did not factor in such eventualities. It was conducted at a time
06:58time when India and Pakistan were discussing a possible resumption of formal peace talks. Also, it is important to
07:06remember that India and Pakistan have fought three wars after the partition, and none of them were fought on the
07:12basis of religion. So what do you make of these numbers? Will Indian Muslims stand with India or Pakistan in the
07:20unfortunate event of a war between the two countries? Or will they remain non-aligned? Let us know in the
07:27comments. If you like this video, press the like button and share it with your friends. And don't forget to subscribe.
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