Steep increase in wind-related hurricane damage expected by 2060

AccuWeather

AccuWeather Forecasting Senior Director Dan DePodwin and AccuWeather Climate Expert Brett Anderson discuss the top headlines related to climate change in the May 23 edition of Climate In The News.

Transcript

00:00Today we're covering two climate stories with hurricane season starting June 1st.

00:05We'll begin with how climate change is expected to increase the amount of wind damage from hurricanes

00:10and then turn to the Chesapeake Bay and the increase in marine heat waves.

00:14Brett, our first analysis study from the Society for Risk Analysis looked at hurricanes

00:20and how climate change is expected to increase the amount of wind damage

00:24and then the insured losses from wind damage across the southeastern U.S.

00:28That's right. Hurricane winds are responsible for about 40% of total losses

00:34and then you also have to factor in storm surge and heavy rainfall as well with that

00:39but about 40% which is a significant number.

00:42Now what the prediction is over the next half century to at the end of the century here

00:47is an increase of up to 76% of damage of losses due to wind by 2060

00:55and as much as 100% this is a worst case scenario by 2100.

01:00That's a significant increase obviously in the amount of wind damage that could be caused by storms.

01:03What areas of the southeast are or do we expect to be most impacted from the increase in wind damage?

01:09Yeah, the study focused on Texas, Louisiana and Mississippi and specifically Texas

01:15where projections are we could see an increase in 14% of losses due to wind by the 2050s.

01:23So this is obviously due to the likelihood of more intense hurricanes, maybe not more frequent storms

01:27but more intense hurricanes and what other reasons behind this finding?

01:30People moving into more riskier areas, low-lying areas.

01:34We're seeing obviously a continued trend of people moving from the northeast, midwest,

01:38down to the south into these higher risk areas.

01:41So from the hurricanes, which obviously need water to be fueled, we'll turn to the water itself here in the Chesapeake Bay

01:47from this story from the University of Maryland, Maryland Today,

01:51using satellite data to track the temperature of Chesapeake Bay

01:55and to understand how marine heat waves work in the Chesapeake,

01:59which are very important to understand the ecosystem of the bay.

02:01Yeah, we've talked about marine heat waves over the oceans.

02:04We've had several across the Pacific and Atlantic.

02:07Now we're really narrowing into a much smaller area of the Chesapeake Bay,

02:11which is a critical waterway, obviously, for fishing and marine life.

02:15And what we've seen here, on average, they have about 25 marine heat wave days annually.

02:22And over the past 20 years, we've seen a 10% increase in those days,

02:26which is equal to about two to four additional marine heat waves per year, which is a big deal.

02:30Yeah, certainly an increase in heat waves that has a pretty wide-raging impact,

02:34I would think, on the ecosystem of the bay.

02:36Yeah, absolutely.

02:37If we get a marine heat wave, what was stated, late spring when there's fish that are spawning,

02:43it can have a huge impact on the population and, therefore, fishing as well and everything.

02:47And this is a really unique use of satellite data.

02:50They also found differences between the lower and upper parts of the bay.

02:53That's right.

02:54The lower bay, fewer heat waves, but they tend to last longer.

02:57Upper bay, which is, of course, as you head up towards the Baltimore area,

03:01more frequent heat waves, but they're shorter duration.

03:04Yeah, again, a very interesting use of satellite data,

03:06not just to look at satellites, perhaps, on the evening news or here on the AccuWeather Network,

03:10but also to track sea surface temperatures, in this case, in the Chesapeake Bay.

03:14Thank you, Brett, for that insight.

03:15For other stories about climate, you can find that at accuweather.com slash climate.

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