Study confirms AccuWeather the leader in hurricane forecasting accuracy

AccuWeather

As we approach hurricane season, Jon Porter reports on a recent Kantar study confirming AccuWeather as the leader in hurricane forecasting, accuracy and advance notice over other weather sources.

Transcript

00:00AccuWeather was there every step of the way, delivering life-saving forecasts and guidance.

00:06Now, a new independent study confirms it.

00:09Cantor, a global leader in data and analytics, reviewed hurricane forecasts from 2024

00:14and it found that AccuWeather led the way in accuracy, communication, and advanced notice.

00:21It's called the AccuWeather Advantage.

00:23You can only get that here on the AccuWeather network, accuweather.com,

00:27and the AccuWeather app, which is a free download.

00:30Now, joining us further to talk about this groundbreaking information here

00:35on the accuracy of our 2024 hurricane forecast, we have Chief Meteorologist Jonathan Porter.

00:41You know, John, it's a big statement to make.

00:44Obviously, when you make a statement like we just made, you have to have some proof to back it up.

00:51And we have the numbers.

00:53We do.

00:53And as you mentioned, Bernie, this is a significant study because it's the first time to our knowledge

00:58that any source has been confirmed to have a more accurate forecast than the National Hurricane Center.

01:04And AccuWeather experts provide that forecast to people and businesses to help them stay safer and be better informed.

01:11And all the stats that we have, as validated by Cantor, prove that.

01:16And you can see here the specific, the numbers.

01:18Here's the proof behind that statement.

01:21Look at the track and intensity accuracy advantage that AccuWeather provided compared to the National Hurricane Center

01:28and all other sources, which, by the way, Cantor verified that all other publicly available sources,

01:34other weather sources, are using the National Hurricane Center forecast.

01:38And you can see that we had a 6.2 percent more accurate track forecast, a 4.0 percent more accurate intensity forecast,

01:46and that advantage grew on the landfalling storms.

01:49The track, we were 8.9 percent more accurate and 4.4 percent more accurate on the intensity of storms.

01:55And look at that important landfall location and intensity parameter because that oftentimes defines where the greatest impacts are,

02:03where the storm makes landfall.

02:05AccuWeather provided a more accurate forecast of landfall location by 8.6 percent

02:10and 37.8 percent more accurate landfall intensity forecast compared to the Hurricane Center and all other sources.

02:19And it's also about the advance notice.

02:21We cannot express how important it is to give people advance notice.

02:27And as you go through these numbers, John, I want to remind everybody,

02:29it's not just one individual statistic that we went over.

02:33When you averaged them or combined them all together, the advantage becomes even greater.

02:40That's right, Bernie, and that's an important point.

02:42This study by Kantar looked at the entire season.

02:45It looked at every forecast AccuWeather hurricane experts made it.

02:49It compared it with the then-valid National Hurricane Center forecast to provide these comparisons.

02:55And all the data we're showing are on average, averaged over all those forecasts.

02:59And you can see that on average, AccuWeather experts exclusively provided a first forecast,

03:05track and intensity forecast for hurricanes and tropical storms,

03:0819 hours before the National Hurricane Center and other sources.

03:13Imagine that, getting advance notice from AccuWeather 19 hours earlier.

03:17That enables you to make better plans and stay safer.

03:21And, of course, our forecast extended, on average, 25 hours further into the future

03:27beyond the forecast of the National Hurricane Center and other sources.

03:31And I want to point out, too, that the National Hurricane Center is an indispensable part of this work.

03:38We utilize all the forecast models and data that the National Hurricane Center provides.

03:43Their work provides, their important work provides the foundation that's used by AccuWeather

03:47and the entire weather enterprise here in the United States.

03:51Our job is to look at what the National Hurricane Center is putting out, consider it,

03:55and then our experts look at ways to improve the forecast.

03:58And that's what's proven in this forecast.

04:00You know, the only long-track storm we had last year, and what do I mean by that,

04:04is a storm that started in the Atlantic, the tropical Atlantic,

04:09and made its way toward the United States was Beryl.

04:14And what a storm that was, we'll get to that in a second.

04:17But, John, some other key points about the accuracy of our hurricane forecasts.

04:24Well, Kantar validated that AccuWeather experts exclusively provided the first forecast for Beryl

04:2928 hours in advance of the National Hurricane Center and other sources.

04:34And that was critical to provide life-saving advance notice to the islands in the Caribbean

04:39that were going to be dealing with what became a Category 5 hurricane.

04:42AccuWeather was also the first to predict that the storm would make landfall in Texas

04:4830 hours before the National Hurricane Center and other sources.

04:51Also the first to forecast 8 to 12 inches of rain and flooding before any other source.

04:55And, of course, that was a big problem, flooding not only at the coast but inland in that storm.

04:59And more advance notice on the location of the storm, 41 hours in advance on the track of that storm.

05:06Yeah, and then, of course, we had Hurricane Helene and the cleanup still continues from this life-changing storm.

05:14And there, again, we provided key wording to help people make the best decisions.

05:20AccuWeather was the only source to call Helene a once-in-a-generation storm

05:24and to predict a catastrophic flooding disaster right where it happened in the mountains in the western part of the Appalachian,

05:32in the southern Appalachians in western North Carolina, eastern Tennessee, a devastating storm.

05:37And we provided, by the numbers, more accuracy on the landfall location and, of course, the wind intensity at landfall,

05:43but also better described those significant impacts.

05:47One of the more powerful hurricanes, of course, was Hurricane Milton,

05:53where we provided weeks in advance notice that this storm was going to form and move into the Gulf of Mexico.

06:00We made no mistake about that.

06:02Other sources, including the National Hurricane Center and other weather sources, were flip-flopping

06:06on whether there was going to be any development of a tropical storm and eventually hurricane.

06:11AccuWeather consistently called for a tropical storm and hurricane to develop,

06:16and, of course, that's exactly what happened.

06:18We were first to forecast that.

06:19We also warned of the damaging winds and flooding in Florida before any other source.

06:24And we provided, on average, forecasts that extended 22 hours further in the future

06:30as compared to the government and all other sources on Milton,

06:34a devastating storm across the southeastern United States.

06:38And, of course, Sean, you can have the most accurate forecast in the world,

06:41but you have to communicate it properly,

06:43and you have to make sure that the people can get the forecast many different ways.

06:49That's correct, and that's a key part of it.

06:52The Cantar study also validated AccuWeather's real impact scale for hurricanes

06:57as a better measure and a more comprehensive representation of a tropical storm

07:03or hurricane's impacts.

07:04You can get these advantages exclusively from AccuWeather in terms of, on average,

07:09greater advance notice, greater accuracy across all of the AccuWeather platforms.

07:14So important as we head into hurricane season in order to make the best decisions for your family,

07:20keep them safer, better prepared, also for your business with the AccuWeather app,

07:25the AccuWeather network, and, of course, our AccuWeather for business services,

07:29where we provide site-specific forecasts and warnings

07:32through the AccuWeather hurricane warning service for businesses

07:34so they can operate safer and be best prepared.

07:38All of this is powered by AccuWeather's proven superior accuracy,

07:41and we're here for you every step of the storm, well before it develops,

07:46before it develops, as the storm has developed,

07:49and we're informing you where it's heading,

07:51and, of course, during and after the impacts as well.

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