Twins vs. Guardians Preview: Weather Impacts Betting Odds

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00:00Pretty short numbers today between the two.

00:02Minnesota, a minus 118 money line favorite.

00:05The Guardians, an ever-so-slight dog on the other side.

00:07Now, even money, plus 100.

00:09Total down from seven and a half, now to seven.

00:13Not great weather this week in Minnesota.

00:15And they've got to finish the first game of this set DRS before.

00:19How does that impact the handicap?

00:21Yeah, probably going to be a complete stay away at this point

00:24because you're looking at temperatures.

00:25It's one thing like, hey, it's spring and it's 68 degrees.

00:27It's 45 degrees at first pitch and it's 740 with being expected.

00:32It's going to be freezing.

00:33I'd be surprised.

00:34They're going to try to get at least one of these in,

00:35but game number two is going to be a mess.

00:36If we're just looking at the starting pitchers,

00:38you do have some sort of an interesting circumstance.

00:40Gavin Williams is fifth on the card today with an XFIP of 3.15.

00:45You'll love to see that.

00:46But also at the same time, you take a look at his 4.03 ERA.

00:51So like, wait a second, he's getting a little bit unlucky.

00:52Yes.

00:53Then you take a look at Chris Paddock on the mound here from Minnesota.

00:55He's got a 2.15 ERA, but a 4.86 XFIP, almost the exact opposite.

01:01So if you're just looking at pitchers, Gavin Williams over the past 30 days,

01:03lefties and righties have been starting to get to him.

01:06But again, is he getting just a little bit unlucky at that point?

01:09Is that going to turn around today?

01:10And also, it's not a great hitter's ballpark overall.

01:13Now you end in the cold temperatures and rain into the forecast.

01:17If they do play, trying to force this way through,

01:20which is always a little bit of a food for thought.

01:22Understand this about baseball.

01:23It is a business.

01:25They don't want to come back and play extra games.

01:27So when the umpire understands that the conditions are bad,

01:30hey, that ball's four inches off the plate, it's D-Rike three.

01:34Let's keep the game moving at this point.

01:35That's always tough when you're over back.

01:37So I probably lean more towards the under,

01:39not because I like the pitching matchups,

01:41but because the weather conditions, number one,

01:43and also the understanding where the ump is not going to be,

01:45hey, I'm going to have a real tight strike zone today,

01:48hoping we get a three and a half hour game in the pouring freezing cold.

01:51That's dangerous.

01:52Under for me tonight,

01:53and we don't even know who the starting lineups are going to be technically.

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