“They could try…” Ex-diplomat Jawed Ashraf warns of dangerous escalation by Pakistan

ANI

New Delhi, 9th May 2025 (ANI)— Former Indian diplomat Jawed Ashraf has termed Pakistan’s recent actions a “very dangerous escalation, we have to watch out, they could attack one on one at night, or may take a shield of LoC Mountain, They could try cyber-attack as well.”

Transcript

00:00I think it is obviously a very dangerous escalation.

00:04Remember when we announced the strikes on the nine terrorist targets or hubs,

00:12what we had said that we have attained our objectives.

00:17They could try either to do it again tonight.

00:19Tonight may well be a day on which we'll have to watch carefully.

00:24They may also combine this with an attempt to do a subconventional attack

00:28through another major round of infiltration using the cover of LOC firing.

00:33How do you get Pakistan back on, let's say, the grey list?

00:36Compelling new case based on the new set of evidence that you have

00:41about not just terrorist groups there,

00:45but also about explicit state complicity, military support and abetment for it.

00:52I have seen last night a major escalation.

00:56Yes.

00:56Pakistanis side and they have also attacked some of our cities,

01:00which attacked all over the repulsed.

01:03Right.

01:03As a diplomat, how do you look at this situation and how far it can go?

01:10Well, I think it is obviously a very dangerous escalation.

01:14Remember when we announced the strikes on the nine terrorist targets or hubs,

01:23what we had said that we have attained our objectives

01:27and we do not wish to see any further escalation,

01:31because that was our objective, that justice be served

01:34and that deterrence be, in a sense, established

01:37and a political resolve be conveyed.

01:40Now, after that, Pakistan had a choice either to not escalate

01:45or they have taken the other choice, which is to respond militarily.

01:50Now, their response had to be on civilian or military targets.

01:55And that is actually, in a sense, declaration of war.

01:57So the first night they have actually tried to attack so many civilian

02:02and military targets in India that were repulsed.

02:07In turn, we, as we have always said, we will try to maintain escalation dominance.

02:12We responded very effectively, domain for domain.

02:16That is very important to remember.

02:18Once again, in a measured manner, just to send a signal.

02:22But then we saw a higher level of response from Pakistan yesterday.

02:26Perhaps what they wish to achieve is that if they can break through this wall

02:31and of air defense that we have established and get one major target in India,

02:38whether it be a military establishment or a major city,

02:42then they can actually claim that we have been able to deter Indian aggression,

02:48as it were, and then try to change the narrative.

02:52Now, that is also combined with two other forms of engagement with us.

02:57One is the traditional, intense, escalated, elevated firing along the line of control

03:03and the international border.

03:05With dense population and living in very close proximity,

03:09it is obviously a situation fraught with great risk for our people.

03:13The second is the information warfare, which is entirely new in the era of social media,

03:20artificial intelligence, deep fakes, because that can have an impact in terms of confusing the people,

03:28sort of creating a dissonance over here about what's exactly that is happening

03:33and then can affect the morale.

03:35So I think these are the three areas now.

03:39Will they further escalate?

03:40They could try either to do it again tonight.

03:43Tonight may well be a day on which we'll have to watch carefully,

03:47or they might take a pause and hope for our guards to drop and then come back and attack again a little later.

03:54And they may also combine this with an attempt to do a subconventional attack

03:59through another major round of infiltration using the cover of LOC firing.

04:03And just sort of say that we have been able to teach this, again, pass this off as something that was emanating from within India.

04:13So this is a range of options.

04:15They will continue.

04:16Remember, we also have to be very watchful on cyber attacks.

04:19But in terms of visible military operations,

04:22I think they have to reach a point of inflection,

04:25recognizing that either escalation or expansion into other domains such as ground offensive or naval warfare

04:35or direct use of large-scale use of jets, military jets can lead to a further escalation from our side

04:43and which will impose a huge cost on them.

04:46So that's a point that they have to make.

04:48It's not for us.

04:49But that risk remains.

04:51Javejji, also another thing, India is also trying to isolate them diplomatically

04:57and in fact telling the world that what they are doing is wrong.

05:02Do you think that, what is your assessment of it,

05:06whether the world is understanding the semantics or the arithmetic of these kind of attacks,

05:12why Pakistan is doing it, and are they understanding India's point of view?

05:16So I'd say this, let me put it at three different levels.

05:20One is that there is always an unqualified expression of solidarity and sympathy

05:26and support for India with regards to the terrorism.

05:32But there is also a reflexive tendency to locate this in the context of what people call

05:39the long-standing disputes and rivalries and issues between India and Pakistan.

05:46So that, in a sense, kind of creates a context or sort of rationalizes this a little bit,

05:52including from our closest strategic partners.

05:56You see that kind of an expression.

05:58And therefore, it is also important to mention that it's one thing to have solidarity and support,

06:05quite another thing to translate that into concrete action.

06:11Concrete action in terms of punitive economic financial measures

06:15that creates disincentives for Pakistan to pursue the path of terrorism

06:20and enables it to change its behavior or induces it to change its behavior.

06:27But that is perhaps not likely to come.

06:29We will, of course, press the case in FATF.

06:32We will also press very hard when it comes to the IMF bailout package,

06:36as you've already heard our foreign secretary mention.

06:39Now, then you have to see this in another context.

06:42We are today, we look back on 99, 2001, 2008.

06:48We're in a different world today.

06:50It's an international order, in some sense, has collapsed.

06:53You see almost every country preoccupied with its own set of challenges.

06:58America is trying to completely look about making it,

07:03you know, renegotiating the terms of its international engagement.

07:06It no longer wants to be seen as someone that is leading the world.

07:10It just wants to focus on making America great again.

07:13Europe is caught in a war, and between geopolitical rivalry of China

07:17and the United States, Russia, China, Middle East,

07:19all have their own set of problems.

07:21So it is in that era.

07:23So you don't see that kind of, I recall in the past,

07:27there would be immediate shuttle diplomacy taking place

07:30between India and Pakistan from the United States and other countries.

07:36That sort of is missing.

07:37You've seen a perfunctory offer of help from the U.S. president.

07:43Vice President Vance is none of our business,

07:45but everyone expects that it is not going to escalate.

07:48And I think there is a much higher threshold of acceptance for our action

07:54because of the turbulence that is there in the world

07:58and in a general dilution of the overall power structure that exists in the world

08:05and the way power shifts are taking place

08:07and the way the United States is also redefining itself and its role in the world.

08:12So we'll have to actually manage a lot of this on our own.

08:16Having said this, I think if there is a point of escalation,

08:19I don't even rule out possibility of the U.S. and Russia

08:25and perhaps also bringing China to work together on this

08:28because that may be a great way for the United States and Russia

08:31to show that there are areas in which they can collaborate

08:34given the proclivity of the current Trump administration in this regard.

08:39Now, that is something that I think we would also want to avert.

08:43And I think our external affairs ministers and others have made it very clear

08:46that we are not going to escalate,

08:48but we are just going to pursue our objectives with regard to terrorism.

08:54And they need to take, understand and accept and accommodate that.

08:58Sir, you mentioned in your last remarks about disincentivizing Pakistan

09:04by punching them or by stopping some aid from IMF or FATF.

09:09You work very closely with FATF in France.

09:12Sir, please, can you throw some light on this aspect of the conflict?

09:17So there is nothing, you know, these things don't happen overnight.

09:20I mean, you need to, you know, how do you get Pakistan back on,

09:25let's say, the gray list?

09:27Now, you're compelling new case based on the new set of evidence that you have

09:33about not just terrorist groups there,

09:38but also about explicit state complicity, military support and abetment for it,

09:44and the lack of any steps that they have taken with regard to cutting off

09:48terrorism financing and support.

09:50And once we make that case, we'll have to really lobby all the members,

09:55first at the APAC level, and then we'll take it to the FATF plenary.

09:59But it's something that I think we will pursue because we obviously will build a whole body

10:06of legally sustainable and acceptable body of evidence on this.

10:13Now, IMF is going to be also a process of negotiations.

10:16And again, there will be countries that will support saying that, you know,

10:20you cannot penalize the people of Pakistan.

10:23I mean, Pakistan also has some sort of a strategic value for them.

10:27And also, they also cooperate with them, ironically, on counterterrorism.

10:32You heard President Trump mention the support they got in his first State of the Union address

10:36with regard to getting somebody.

10:38So that's also an asset that Pakistan has.

10:40But that would not stop us from mounting a very comprehensive and concerted...

10:46What we would argue also for countries that provide bilateral assistance to Pakistan

10:52is that they really do need to condition assistance to steps that Pakistan takes on terrorism.

10:58Remember that many of those assistance packages actually have those provisions,

11:03but they're usually waived or they are diluted in larger interest.

11:09The U.S. put that condition in...

11:10Yes.

11:11I mean, I was in Washington, D.C.

11:13We were working in the Congress when we had a number of...

11:16When there were a number of conditions,

11:17I saw Congress put on the Enhanced Partnership with Pakistan Act.

11:20But they were either waived or were diluted as a result of the ongoing war in Afghanistan.

11:26Another big worry here in New Delhi is the role of China,

11:30which is another giant in the region,

11:32and which has a very, very close ties with Pakistan.

11:36And there is a worry, like I will say in a layman's language,

11:40there is a worry that China may also enter the conflict

11:44or may support Pakistan indirectly.

11:46Although the public statement from China has been very measured so far.

11:50So, do you also factor in this angle, in this scenario?

11:55Well, I think, you know, there are different...

11:57First, I have to say that, you know, we do take or war game these situations

12:03or we do prepare for a two-front war, as you are very well aware of it.

12:08But, of course, that will always be a challenge.

12:11What I would say is that, to us, I mean, it is on the basis of evidence

12:17or what I see from China, its internal preoccupations,

12:21its set of problems it is dealing with in its own neighborhood,

12:25but also in sorting out these great trade issues with the United States,

12:29that it has no particular interest in getting into a direct conflict

12:32or with India in this war, it may provide a certain level of assistance

12:38to Pakistan diplomatically, which it will, without doubt.

12:42And it will also provide perhaps, I mean, you will have to also take into account

12:46perhaps a provision of assistance in terms of satellite imagery,

12:52signal intelligence, and perhaps continue to supply munition

12:57for the weapon systems that they have.

12:59But, you know, so that maybe it will be limited at that level.

13:03But I think at this stage, China is also interested in finding a way

13:08to ease tensions with India and try and normalize relations

13:12as it deals with the massive trade dispute with the United States.

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