Breaking through tariffs and trends

AWANI

What’s driving China’s trade resilience? We break down the latest numbers with Shan Saeed, Global Chief Economist at Juwai IQI.

Transcript

00:00Now we're here to unpack China's trade statistics for April.

00:03We have Shan Seyed, Global Chief Economist at UAIQI.

00:07Now, Shan, despite U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods,

00:11China's exports grew by 8.1% in April, far exceeding expectations.

00:16So what factors do you think help Chinese exporters maintain this resilience

00:20and can it actually be sustained in the long term?

00:24Shan?

00:25I think Chinese have shown remarkable resilience

00:28in diversifying very quickly

00:30and they are moving most of the trade and commerce

00:33to Southeast Asia, Europe, Africa, and GCC.

00:37And if you look at these combined regions,

00:41ASEAN, GCC, Africa,

00:43so they combine together around 2.5 billion population along with Europe.

00:51So that contributes significantly to the overall export outlook

00:56and that clearly demonstrates that the Chinese are pretty smart

01:01and they have already planned how to move away from these tariffs

01:07and they have navigated it quite significantly.

01:12Moving forward, I think it is sustainable

01:15because China has a close relationship with ASEAN,

01:20they have a close relationship with Africa, GCC, and Europe.

01:23And in all these countries, they have a few things in common.

01:29They have rising economies, they have macroeconomic stability,

01:36they have growing infrastructure,

01:39and above all, they have the desire to have strong relationship with China in the long run.

01:48So I think all these economies, the regions,

01:52they want to continue their trade relationship in the long run.

01:56Right.

01:57Looking at this region, Shan,

01:59while China's exports to the U.S. dropped by 21%,

02:03export to ASEAN actually surged by 20.8%.

02:07Does this actually signal a clear shift in China's trade strategy towards this region?

02:12And within ASEAN, you feel which countries do you see becoming even more important

02:16for China's growth and why?

02:19Absolutely.

02:20The largest increase in outbound shipment went to Indonesia, Thailand, and Vietnam.

02:27And if you look at these regions, I was in Indonesia last week,

02:30and I can tell you what's happening in Indonesia.

02:33Indonesia right now is booming.

02:34So Indonesia, 278 million, Vietnam, 100 million population, Thailand, 72 million population.

02:42So China wants to deal with those countries where demographics are big,

02:47where they have leadership, where the young population is strong,

02:52and above all, they have the infrastructure and macroeconomic stability.

02:57So China is quite bullish.

02:58And the recent visit of President Xi Jinping to Malaysia, to Vietnam, and Cambodia

03:05is a clear signal that Chinese have clearly pivoted towards ASEAN,

03:11which is the growth region with 620 million population,

03:16GDP size touching almost $4 trillion by the end of this year.

03:20So China has made it very clear that they want to move into this region

03:26where income levels are rising.

03:28The leadership of various governments are committed to having long-term relationships.

03:34And above all, the macroeconomic stability is one of the key factors

03:38that make China to come to this part of the world.

03:43Right.

03:44Shan, your input on Malaysia.

03:46What role do you think Malaysia can play in helping position ASEAN

03:49as a major global economic force?

03:53And how can we make sure this leads to long-term resilience and prosperity for the region?

03:59I think the recent visit of Chinese President to Malaysia

04:02has given a lot of leverage to Malaysia.

04:06And it has clearly given Malaysia a clear advantage in the ASEAN region

04:11that Malaysia is playing a key role in bringing all the ASEAN countries together,

04:18leading from the front.

04:19And this gives a limelight in the last two, three months.

04:24You have seen all the global newspapers, local newspapers.

04:27They're all talking about Malaysia.

04:29Global companies are moving into Malaysia.

04:31FDI is coming into Malaysia.

04:33So obviously, Malaysia has got a clear advantage in all this situation.

04:39And it helps the population at the macro level.

04:44Right.

04:45Thank you so much, Shan.

04:46That was Shan Saeed from Juei IQI.

Category

Transcript

Be the first to comment

Recommended