00:00Hi, everybody. I'm Brittany Lewis, a breaking news reporter here at Forbes. Joining me now is
00:08Stevie O'Brien, lawyer and government and public policy expert with McMillan. Stevie, thank you so
00:13much for joining me. Thank you for having me. It is an historic conversation. We are about to have
00:19Canada had an election on Monday night. And our first conversation was at the beginning of January.
00:24And that was when Prime Minister Dustin Trudeau was stepping down. And he told me that liberals
00:29were polling the lowest they had ever been in modern history. Well, less than four months later,
00:35the Liberal Party in Canada made quite the comeback. Mark Carney was elected as Prime
00:39Minister. Talk to us exactly how this happened. What's the reaction? Tell us more.
00:45So this was a historic turnaround, sort of unprecedented in Canadian politics. You're
00:52right. Our first conversation, the liberals were around 16%. And at the end of last night,
00:58they were, you know, they won the popular vote. They won the most seats in the House. There's still
01:03some ballots being counted. So the possibility of a majority government is still alive. But but either
01:08way, they formed government with the end. It's something that, you know, four months ago, we wouldn't
01:14have believed could happen. I'd say the reasons there are a couple triggering events. So the resignation
01:21of Prime Minister Trudeau, followed quickly by a very fast liberal leadership convention, which brought in
01:29Mark Carney, sort of an outsider and non, you know, he's not a politician, but he's a world class
01:36economist. You also match that with the inauguration of President Trump and the conversations about tariffs
01:43in the 51st state. And all of those things kind of came together to give the Liberal Party a massive
01:51surge in the polls.
01:53Yeah, so I want to talk about that a little further, because we had another conversation in March. And
01:57that's when Mark Carney, he overwhelmingly won in a landslide to replace Trudeau. How has he been doing?
02:03Apparently, Canadians think pretty good if he won again last night.
02:07You know what he's been doing? He's been doing an excellent job. I think he's meeting the moment.
02:13We're not in Canada looking for theatrics. I think we want bland competence. And that is what he's got
02:22in spades.
02:24And Pierre Polyev, who was the conservative leader, he was called Maple Maga. And it's very clear based on
02:31what has happened the past couple of months, that Canada is rejecting Trump, Trumpism,
02:36anything that looks or resembles President Trump, they don't want. And what was Mark Carney's
02:43platform? Was it that he's not Trump, that he's not theatrical, that he is pushing that type of
02:49politic away?
02:51It was a much more positive campaign. The Liberals ran on positivity and on hope, and the Conservatives
02:58sort of ran on fear and a need for change. And ultimately, I think that the main question,
03:04the main fear based question, at least of this election was, who do Canadians fear more,
03:10the Liberals or Donald Trump? And I think we saw last night that they are more afraid of Donald
03:16Trump than they are about a fourth Liberal term.
03:20I think something that has stuck out in my last conversation with you is that Americans that I've
03:26talked to, politicians I've talked to in America, weren't taking President Trump so seriously when he
03:31said things like, Justin Trudeau is the Governor Trudeau, not Prime Minister Trudeau. He wants to
03:37make Canada the 51st state. Americans just thought that was more hyperbole from President Trump.
03:42Canadians, you told me last time, take that really seriously, even more so than the tariff
03:47situation. They were very angry about that type of talk. And President Trump posted on Truth Social
03:54something to the effect yesterday of Canada. I'll actually read it. He wrote this,
03:59good luck to the great people of Canada, elect the man who has the strength and wisdom to cut your
04:04taxes in half, increase your military power for free to the highest level in the world, have your
04:09car, steel, aluminum, lumber, energy, and all other businesses quadruple in size with zero tariffs or
04:15taxes. If Canada becomes the cherished 51st state of the United States of America, no more artificially
04:21drawn line from many years ago. Look how beautiful this landmass would be free access with no border,
04:28all positives with no negatives. It was meant to be America can no longer subsidize Canada with the
04:33hundreds of billions of dollars a year that we have been spending in the past. It makes no sense
04:38unless Canada is a state. Was that do you believe the nail in the coffin there that it was time to elect
04:45or keep Mark Carney in power, reject the conservatives, reject Donald Trump? What do you think?
04:52I definitely think that President Trump's comments about the 51st state and sort of threats about
04:59sovereignty are absolutely the motivating factor behind many people voting liberal and the sort of
05:07the collapse of some of our smaller, because we're not a two-party system, we're normally a four or five
05:12party system, but all of the smaller parties sort of collapsed their vote to support the liberals to
05:19stand up to this threat. I think that most Canadians still find it, you know, very offensive and a very
05:26concerning and are happy that Prime Minister Carney's sort of never 51 is a catchphrase, elbows up a hockey
05:36term is another, is another saying that is becoming quite popular here. And there are people at rallies
05:43with hockey sticks with Canadian flags. So people are concerned, and they think that Prime Minister Carney
05:50will be the best to sort of guide through this sort of tumultuous time in our relationship.
05:56As you said, this is a historic election in unprecedented time. It was a major comeback for the Liberal Party.
06:02The Conservative leader, Paliyev, he lost his parliamentary seat. But how badly did Conservatives
06:08take a beating last night? Or, I mean, as you noted, it is still pretty close.
06:13So, except it is, it is close between a minority and a majority government. The Liberals have definitely
06:20won the election. A majority just means they don't need to barter with some of the smaller parties
06:27to have their legislation approved. They would have been able to just sort of move, move things
06:33forward a lot easier. The, the, another interesting thing, and this, this election was full of twists
06:41and turns. So yes, Paliyev lost his seat, which he had held for 20 years. At the same time, the Conservatives
06:48did lose, but they had polled at the highest percentage they have polled in modern history. And they picked up
06:54seats that they didn't have in the last election. So he can arguably say he did, he did very well in this
07:02election. The Liberals just did better, completely unexpectedly better. So I think there's going to be a big
07:08conversation within the Conservative Party about what to do next. You had mentioned that there was a full
07:14rejection of Maple MAGA, or Timbit Trump, as others have called him. But I think, I think what we see in the polls is that
07:24actually there were, there was 40%, he received over 40% of the vote. So that's a lot of people who were not
07:30turned off by his rhetoric, by Paliyev's slogans and sort of attack dog style. Many liked that. Many did not.
07:42I guess my next question, I don't know if it's too early, but is there any idea in the Conservative Party
07:47of where they go from here? Because as you said, it's kind of like a mixed bag. Hey, 40% still likes this
07:52message. I mean, Paliyev did lose a seat that he held for years. He didn't become Prime Minister. But
07:58is there any indication of where Conservatives go next? What direction they take?
08:03I think the dust is going to have to settle. And I think there's going to be a lot of conversations,
08:08and probably a lot of infighting about what the direction to go is, whether to keep and try again,
08:17maybe in another couple of years, minority governments don't tend to last a full mandate.
08:22Or to change course. And I think they're going to have to do a lot of reflection. For the last two
08:30years, they looked like they were sailing into a super majority. They were 26 points ahead in the
08:35polls. And they lost that in the last three months. And I think everybody's still reeling.
08:42And I think it's really interesting, because when you're looking at America now, and especially in
08:45November on, the inverse has happened, where Democrats really had to take a look inward,
08:51there's still a lot of infighting in that party of what direction we choose. But I want to read some
08:55quotes from Mark Carney last night. He said this, quote, President Trump is trying to break us so that
09:01American America can own us. That will never ever happen. Prime Minister also said this, we are over the
09:07shock of the American betrayal, but we should never forget the lessons. And our old relationship with the
09:12United States, a relationship based on steadily increased integration is over. As we know,
09:18Canada is a neighbor of the United States, longstanding allies, one of our biggest trade
09:23partners. I mean, where does this relationship go when he's saying the old relationship is over,
09:28saying things like America betrayal? What happens next? What do Canadians want to see from Mark Carney
09:33when it comes to dealing with President Trump in America?
09:36So I think Canadians did feel a great sense of betrayal. And as we've talked before, not just
09:43sort of with the large tariffs, but also this sort of Governor Trudeau and the 51st state rhetoric over
09:52and over again, comments that Canada shouldn't exist as a country, very offended. The relationship is
09:59not what it was. I think what Canadians wanted, Carney, and one of the reasons that he won is he
10:06will, he has impeccable financial credentials. He is the man for the moment. He was former governor of
10:13the Bank of Canada and the Bank of England. He was at Goldman Sachs. He's been in our department. He
10:18helped Canada through the 08 financial crisis. He's the man for the moment. So I think they're expecting
10:25him to negotiate with President Trump a new trade deal, but also to use his international network
10:33to build closer ties for Canada with our European and other trading partners and to really strongly
10:42look to diversify who we trade with. You mentioned in the quote you were reading from Truth Social
10:49about the billions of dollars of subsidies. So much of that is related to oil that flows from
10:58Canada to the United States at a fair discount. But if we look to find other markets for that oil,
11:07the United States will actually have to purchase more expensive oil from somewhere else. And
11:10while the trade balance might even out, I don't think that's what the American consumer wants,
11:16more expensive oil or gas. I'm curious what Canadians want to see with these tariff talks,
11:22because when it comes to this, President Trump, I know from American politics, doesn't want to
11:27appear weak. He wants to see leaders coming to him to strike a deal. I know when it comes to China,
11:34the president, President Xi, he's not coming to the table. President Trump has retaliated with
11:39exorbitant tariffs. There's a tit for tat there. What do Canadians want to see with Prime Minister
11:45Carney? Do they want to see this tough talk? Because this is very tough rhetoric against
11:50America. What do they want to see from there? Well, I think in when President Trump was elected
11:56the first time, he took a tough stance with respect to trade and renegotiate. He sort of tore up NAFTA
12:04and forced a renegotiation of the trade agreement in North America. I think what we would like to see
12:09is let's go back to that table. Let's sit down as neighbours and friends and figure this out as a
12:16continent. And that's what we're hoping to do. And that's what I think they hope that Prime Minister
12:23Carney is able to do. I would note that the president and the Prime Minister had a very cordial,
12:29positive conversation at the beginning of April. And so continuing on that trajectory is, I think,
12:35is it the goal? Stevie, in our past conversations, I mean, I am struck by how much has changed,
12:42how historic and unprecedented this election is. And I always really appreciate the Canadian
12:47perspective. So from that, do you think we're missing anything from this conversation?
12:54So this election was largely influenced by what was happening south of our border. And the comments
13:03made by President Trump had impacts on our polls, for sure. But there is another story that was also
13:10going on, sort of, if that was the top line ballot issue, the second one was cost of living. And I think
13:18that Canadians are still struggling with that, as many, you know, in America, Australia, Britain are.
13:24And that that, I think, Prime Minister Carney is also going to need to spend some time focusing on
13:31housing, focusing on the cost of groceries. And so is it and it's that challenge, she's gonna have to
13:39balance that while still spending money on defense and looking for new trading partners.
13:43Well, this fascinating conversation once again, and I hope we can talk as Prime Minister Carney
13:48continues on his journey as the leader of Canada. Thank you again so much for the conversation.
13:53You're welcome back anytime.
13:56My pleasure. Thank you so much.
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