Padres vs. Astros: High ERA Clash in Sunday Night Baseball

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00:00Yeah, well, I'm going to, because I do like both of these lineups per se,

00:02but against this pitching matchup, which makes it interesting,

00:04because we just talked about Dylan Cease, right?

00:06That high ERA and a really high whip rate of 1.5.

00:10You take a look at Frambois Valdez, 22 innings pitched this season so far.

00:13Look at the ERA also, approaching five.

00:15But if I have him on my card today with the XFIP numbers, which I love,

00:18he's fifth out of 30, which means a 3.20 XFIP number and a fifth number of 3.39.

00:24So it's another one of those where it's like, okay, the ERA is high,

00:27but it shouldn't be that high.

00:29And we'll see if some of those numbers come down, and two pedigree pitchers nonetheless.

00:32So if we're handicapped in this game, Tom, 9.29, 9.30 in the rotation,

00:36a 7.10 start tonight is the Sunday night baseball game.

00:38You look at the total, open up at 7.5.

00:40Hasn't moved at all, still sitting at 7.5.

00:43Look at the line itself, right around a minus 125 overnight.

00:46Most outlets, minus 125 to minus 30.

00:49So that hasn't changed here.

00:50If we look at some of the markets here just with who is betting which way,

00:54the money line numbers speak.

00:55About 65% of them coming in on San Diego as the slight underdog tonight in this game.

01:01Do you agree that the betting public's like, you know what?

01:03An underdog price would cease in San Diego.

01:05I'll take that.

01:07Absolutely agree with that.

01:08Cease and the Padres come away with the win.

01:10They avoid being swept.

01:12And I think we're going to see more offense than people anticipate.

01:15And I'm expecting it to come from the Padres side of things versus lefties this year,

01:19the Padres offense, that is.

01:21They have a 17.5% striker rate, the third lowest in the league.

01:25They have a 150 ISO.

01:26They have a 106 WRC+.

01:28They're looking good, despite not having my guy Jackson Merrill,

01:32who I desperately want back in the lineup.

01:34They're awesome.

01:35I know Bogarts hasn't been the same player he was over the past few weeks.

01:38It's been a slow week for him.

01:39But you give me the top of that lineup with Tatis, Luisa Rice, Manny Machado,

01:44you want to throw in a Gavin Sheets in there, and then a Xander Bogarts.

01:47I think the offense is going to be there.

01:49I think that Valdez is a good pitcher.

01:51And the XFIP numbers do suggest that he will continue to be better than he currently is.

01:55But he's not a dominant strikeout pitcher.

01:57I see some runs, not necessarily from home runs, though.

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