Analyzing Ohtani's MVP Chances Against Rising Award Contenders

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00:00So we look at Otani's season, and let's even take out the equation that he probably will return to

00:04the mound. Is he a dead giveaway as the favorite, or guys like Corbin Carroll are scorching hot in

00:10the same division? Can somebody catch Shohei Otani? I think Corbin Carroll can catch him in

00:17terms of production. Pete Alonzo's off to a great year. Soto's not off to the start we necessarily

00:23expected, but I think it's tough for me to break this down without factoring in him returning to

00:29the mound. As you know, you said you wanted to exclude that, but here's what it comes down to

00:32for me, and I've said this before across sports, but I think I can say the situation where both

00:38things are true. That's a terrible number for Otani for the MVP market, but it's probably the bet to

00:45make. I'm not saying I am making that bet, but once he gets back to the mound, and even if he is an

00:49average pitcher, if he's an average pitcher plus 30, 35, 40 home runs, and 90 or 100 RBIs, he's just

00:56going to win it. That's just what it comes down to. He will win that award just because that's

01:00what's going to happen. Even if Corbin Carroll does amazing things, steals more bases, hits for higher

01:05average, whatever it might be, Otani's still going to win it, and it's a situation where I don't like

01:10the odds, but I think he's going to win it. And again, because even if you don't think he's going

01:15to win it, you have to pick somebody who's actually going to win it over him, because Corbin Carroll has

01:18been absolutely spectacular. If he keeps up his numbers, he probably does win the MVP, which is why he's

01:24at a 5-to-1 price, not a 15 or 20-to-1 right now. He's been spectacular, but it feels to me like

01:29Otani. Slump-proof may be not the right word, but Otani going in long stretches where he doesn't

01:35produce just doesn't seem possible with how many runners in scoring position, even from the bottom

01:40of the lineup as he's a leadoff batter, or just starting the game off with a base knock and coming

01:44around scoring a run. The RBI will be there. The home runs will be there. The batting average is going

01:48to be there. The runs scored will be there, and then if he does come back and pitch, you have those

01:52added extracurriculars that we talk about. Tatis is out there. Tucker's having a good

01:56season. Alonzo's been phenomenal so far for the Mets, and Bryce Harper getting hot here as

02:01these summer months start to kick in. It is a fun market, but again, I don't think anybody's

02:05sitting on this side saying, you know what? Otani and everybody else, like, I would still

02:08bet Otani than everybody else.

02:11It really is the case, and I would love to see a world where Otani was still in the AL,

02:17because we would have an awesome record with Carroll. Even just from the NL perspective

02:23between Kyle Tucker, like you said, Alonzo, and then Corbin Carroll, we would be in for

02:28an awesome market, and then if it was Otani, Judge, and Bobby Witt, we would have two phenomenal

02:33markets to break down. We'd actually have some really good talking points. That's really

02:36not the case.