Padres' 11-0 Home Streak Challenged by Cubs at Petco Park

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00:0014-3, a perfect 11-0 at home, tied for the fourth-best home winning streak

00:06to begin a Major League Baseball season in history.

00:09That would be the Padres, who have been favored, by the way,

00:12in nine of those 11 home victories.

00:15Not the case today at Petco Park, as the Padres host the Cubs

00:20for the second game of this midweek set.

00:23Shota Imenaga gets the start for the Cubbies,

00:25and thus, the updated numbers, minus 152 in favor of the Cubs.

00:32Over-understands at 8.

00:34Early on, DRS, you said we should expect some offense today in San Diego.

00:39If we see offense, who does that favor?

00:42Could San Diego's home win streak be snapped at 11?

00:46Analytics sometimes tough to use this early in the season,

00:49particularly with pitchers.

00:50We understand that.

00:51Once you get around until June, you have enough on every one of these pitchers

00:54to make really good decisions the rest of the summer.

00:57Major League Baseball statistics on hitters, usually right about a month in,

01:0150 to 60 to 70 at-bats, you'll be good to go,

01:03and you get a good feel on these guys, whether they were hot, cold to start.

01:06It usually levels out.

01:07The reason I bring this up is, you take a look at tonight

01:09in the Padres lineup tonight, going up against a lefty.

01:11Doesn't look that great.

01:12Fernando Tatis, terrible numbers against lefties.

01:15Bogarts, Gonzalez, Gurriel, Joe, and Diaz.

01:18There's only about two or three batters in that lineup that you can trust.

01:20Say, okay, how are you going to get runs out of this?

01:22And show to Ian Minaga, you take a look at his first couple starts here,

01:2523 and a third innings pitch, a 2.7 ERA.

01:28Absolutely fantastic.

01:30Let's flip it over to the Chicago Cubs on this side,

01:32going up against Randy Vasquez.

01:33We'll get to the pitchers in just a moment here from a side-by-side.

01:37Lineup looks decent here.

01:37Against right-handed pitching, they've done very well.

01:39Tucker's been great.

01:40Bush has been great.

01:41P. Crow Armstrong's been great.

01:43Amaya's been great.

01:43Everybody else right in that little holding pattern.

01:46But hear me out on this.

01:47You see the seven and a half, and you might say,

01:48well, Donnie, give me the ERAs of both of these pitchers.

01:50Look at Vasquez, 15 and two-thirds innings pitch, not a lot, 1.72.

01:54We just told you Imanaga was a 2.70.

01:57Stone cold under Petco Park.

01:59Hear me out on this.

02:00And again, limited innings that are pitched.

02:02You take a look here on the options with Imanaga, 2.70 ERA.

02:06That turns into a 4.97 XFIP number, which is a disaster,

02:10which means he's getting lucky and giving up way too many fly balls,

02:13not striking out enough guys, and putting too many runners on base.

02:16Let's get the Randy Vasquez, 15 and two-thirds innings pitch, a stellar 1.72 ERA.

02:22But look at the XFIP number, 6.32.

02:25Two of the worst analytical pitchers on the mound tonight

02:27based on early season statistics at Petco tonight.

02:30So again, it's very early to use these judgments,

02:33but you can see the ERA is there, which people go,

02:36oh, they're really good form,

02:37but they're getting a little bit lucky early in the season.

02:39Two lineups I think can do some damage.

02:41And by damage, Ben, what are we talking about?

02:43Three runs for the Padres, three runs over here for the Cubs,

02:47and you're right in that ballpark.

02:48You head off to extras in style at that point.

02:50I do think we get a total in this game over the 7.5

02:53as opposed to taking a side in this one.

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