Trump humilié par Xi… et à deux doigts d’un tsunami financier mondial !
#Trump #XI #Chine #Géopolitique #Economie #Marchés
#Trump #XI #Chine #Géopolitique #Economie #Marchés
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00:00Yeah, hello friends, I hope you're doing well, that you're feeling good.
00:06So, wow, we've just had a crazy week in the financial markets and I titled this video
00:11Trump Humiliated by Xi Jinping, China Takes Control.
00:17That's what we just experienced this week. I think a lot of people don't realize what just
00:22happened this week. From the beginning, Donald Trump has always said, I never back down,
00:28I never turn around, I go all the way, I am the master of negotiation, the master of and there,
00:34we saw his master in negotiation Xi Jinping. So, I know some people are going to say to me,
00:39you put, are you pro-China? Certainly not. But clearly, uh, there, we just saw Trump take a big
00:46beating. So whether it's 2020, 2016, or 2024, Trump has always said, I never back down.
00:56Yesterday, he capitulated. I don't know if you read the Wall Street Journal article,
01:02but it's everywhere. Trump has just backtracked.
01:07He has just announced that smartphones, computers, electronic components, smartwatches,
01:13production machines, in short, everything that Americans buy en masse from China.
01:18Well, listen carefully, there will be no more tariffs, or new tariffs, on these products.
01:25If that's not a spectacular retreat, I don't know what to call it.
01:30And the consequences are that it's a humiliation for Donald Trump.
01:34And obviously for many people, eh. And I think, and I've already spoken about it several times,
01:41I said, either he understands that he's made a huge mistake and he backtracks,
01:46or he continues and it's a disaster. And I said it on my YouTube channel and that's what we just
01:50experienced. He had the choice between economic catastrophe, financial Armageddon, the dollar was
01:56falling, interest rates were rising, and so on, and then it was a catastrophe. And Trump wasn't going
02:02to prevent the catastrophe. The American Federal Reserve, which is the American Central Bank,
02:07Trump wanted it to lower interest rates, the Fed said, no, no, no, I'm not lowering because the
02:13risk of inflation is too high. Jamie Dimon, who is one of the most powerful men in the United States,
02:18who is the president of J.P. Morgan, said the same thing. He said, the risk of recession is very high,
02:25the risk of an increase, and your interest is very high, and that helps us understand why Trump backed
02:30down. And why did he back down? Quite simply because he's stuck. He no longer has any room to
02:37maneuver. The American debt, the American public debt, is at a record high, more than 35 trillion
02:43dollars. The dollar is collapsing. Ah, that's the dollar against all currencies. And we see that
02:51before Trump's arrival, it goes up, up, up until January. Okay? Then as soon as Trump takes office,
02:59look at the dollar, it's incredible. As soon as Trump comes to power, the dollar collapses. And of
03:05course, bonds also collapse. That's American bonds, the TF of American bonds. TLT, we see that Trump is
03:14stuck because we have to understand the economic reasoning behind it. The United States has a very
03:21large debt, we understand that, 35 trillion dollars and every year, they must actually borrow from
03:28international financial markets because they have to refinance the debt.
03:31It's that they issued debt for a certain period and at a certain time, they are obliged to renegotiate
03:39the debt. How shall I say, to raise new debt at an interest rate that is the current one?
03:46However, previously, as we know, during the 2010s, interest rates were almost at zero.
03:53This helps us understand why countries like France, like the United States, and so on,
03:58saw their debt explode. Their debt exploded because behind it, well, the debt was free.
04:04We could increase the debt without any consequences.
04:08Everyone wanted to buy American bonds, French bonds, German bonds.
04:14But today, and this is the thing, is that we realize that the most powerful country in the world,
04:19the country that dominates the planet, okay, on an economic level, on a geopolitical level,
04:25today, nobody wants the dollar. People are fleeing the dollar, people are fleeing American bonds,
04:32and capital is fleeing the United States.
04:36What just happened is for the first time in modern history that people no longer want American bonds,
04:42no longer want the dollar.
04:45So they're fleeing the dollar, they're fleeing the United States.
04:49And the other important point is that interest rates have exploded.
04:54Trump told us, listen, when I come to power, interest rates will go down,
04:58everything will be fine, we'll have the jobs planned.
05:02Look here, this is Trump coming to power.
05:05So here, he arrives in January.
05:08Indeed, interest rates were at 4.82 and everyone is pretty positive,
05:13everyone is pretty optimistic.
05:14And then suddenly, in 2, 3, 4, 5 weeks, we go from 3.90 to 4, to the highest 4.60%.
05:24And if Trump hadn't done anything, we would have had rates that would have exploded upwards.
05:33And Trump understood that if he didn't block this increase in your interest,
05:37it would be extremely difficult to reverse it.
05:41And the other important point is China.
05:44China holds American debt, more than $1 trillion of American debt.
05:50And if China starts selling its American bonds?
05:54And if other states, European countries, emerging countries,
05:58Japan also starts selling these American bonds,
06:01it's a financial Armageddon for the planet.
06:06The crisis of this prime would have become a minor phenomenon
06:09compared to what we would have had because there,
06:11for the first time, it would be a widespread distrust of the United States.
06:18And Trump understood that.
06:20So, we can indeed blame him for showing off, talking too much, and so on.
06:25But Trump is still intelligent.
06:27And he said to himself,
06:28And there, it's the absolute nightmare that if we have a bond crash, it's already happened.
06:47If we take long-term bonds, look at long-term bonds.
06:54We'll take a monthly chart.
06:56This is bonds since 2020.
06:57It's only going down.
06:59But it can continue to fall, and that's what's crazy.
07:02So if bonds collapse, if we have a dollar crisis, and that's the case right now,
07:07if we have a loss of global confidence,
07:10well, in fact, it's going to be a catastrophe.
07:12And that's Trump's fear.
07:15That is to say, imagine, he just came to power, two months later, it's good.
07:19And there was a lot of talk about LZ Trusts in Great Britain.
07:22She announced some policies that were unrealistic for the financial markets.
07:28And very quickly the British currency collapsed,
07:31and we had speculators who attacked the British currency, the pound sterling.
07:35And then, Trump, and finally, he found himself facing the same situation,
07:41and I had already talked about it in my book during trading,
07:43I talk about it often, I said no one can prevent a stock market crash.
07:48I talked about Alan Greenspan when we had the crash of March 2000,
07:52the crash of technology stocks.
07:55For three years, Alan Greenspan lowered domestic tons,
07:58he went from 6.5 to 1%.
08:01Do you think that prevented the stock market from falling?
08:05No, the stock market continued to collapse.
08:09So the markets spoke and indeed some stocks literally collapsed.
08:14Tesla lost 56%, Apple lost 35%,
08:18the Nasdaq lost 26% from its highs.
08:21And when Wall Street sends such a violent message, so quickly,
08:24remember, uh, the Nasdaq, it has already fallen like that,
08:28but this time it was very, very quickly.
08:31And so in fact it's a bit like 2020,
08:34we had a flash crash and then Trump actually said to himself,
08:38okay, if I don't do anything, the markets will literally collapse.
08:42Look here, this is the Nasdaq.
08:45Crack, uh, gap, gap, drop.
08:49And this, this big candle, everyone knows why,
08:52why did we have this big candle?
08:54Well, quite simply because Trump went on a social network,
08:57TR Social, he said,
08:59yes, maybe it's time to buy.
09:02And right after,
09:03he announces that he's finally going to withdraw,
09:06there will be a 90-day truce on customs duties.
09:09And then, in fact,
09:11we're saying to ourselves,
09:12but is he a head of state or is he a clown?
09:14Sorry, E.H., I know there are people who love Trump
09:17and are absolute Trump fans,
09:19but it's not, it's not logical.
09:22It's not possible to be so amateur because here,
09:25we're talking about the president of the world's leading power
09:28and here we're almost talking about insider trading.
09:31That's what's crazy about this story.
09:34How can a president and we're not talking about Trump coin,
09:37Melania coins M coin.
09:40It's incredible to live through this.
09:43So the bottom line is,
09:44Trump wanted to play hardball,
09:46the result is, he gives in.
09:48Of course, he saves the stocks.
09:51And again and again.
09:52Yes, I'm sure that on Monday,
09:54probably the NASAQ will open higher,
09:57the stocks will open.
09:58But at what price?
10:00And are we out of this slump?
10:03It's too early to say because with Trump,
10:05in fact, once again, we can prepare for anything.
10:07But one thing is certain.
10:09For an investor, clearly,
10:10there are some who have suffered.
10:12There are many who have suffered.
10:13For a trader, etc., it's paradise.
10:16The volatility is crazy,
10:18the movements are rapid.
10:19You just have to not be in long-term yes mode here.
10:23You have to be in we don't know mode,
10:25sorry, but we don't know.
10:28That can, we can have,
10:29we can have crazy days,
10:31uh, days at 20%.
10:32That's never happened since,
10:34uh, 2001.
10:36That's what's crazy.
10:38And meanwhile,
10:39the Chinese president is waiting and he's calm.
10:42Why?
10:43Because he's not the bad guy in this.
10:45Everyone says yes.
10:46No, but the Chinese have finally gotten closer to the Europeans.
10:51He told them,
10:52well, in the end,
10:53we should work together,
10:54we should do things together
10:55and in the end,
10:56it's Trump who comes across as the bad guy.
10:59And once again,
11:01I remember then
11:02and we can read it in history books and so on,
11:04we had at a certain point
11:05a big fight between the United States and,
11:08uh,
11:08the USSR,
11:10the Soviet Union.
11:12And the fight is a fight of values.
11:14That is to say,
11:15in the end,
11:16the Americans were saying,
11:18here we have the consumer society,
11:20capitalism,
11:21freedom,
11:21liberalism and so on
11:23and the Soviets.
11:24Well,
11:25here it is,
11:26it's the old economy,
11:27dictatorship.
11:29And soft power is ultimately this power,
11:31this power of attraction,
11:33it was clearly in the United States.
11:35Which means that the Russians are leaving the states,
11:38they were leaving the Soviet Union,
11:40they were fleeing the Soviet Union
11:42to go to the United States,
11:43but also all the brains on the planet.
11:45We had this that we call the brain drain.
11:48The United States has attracted the best brains on the planet.
11:50We mustn't forget that.
11:52Yes,
11:53of course there are the Americans,
11:54but they took the best from around the world
11:56and attracted them
11:57because behind it there is a crazy soft power.
12:00And that's also what explains
12:02when there was the Trump debate,
12:04who said,
12:05yes,
12:05regarding immigration and so on,
12:07we're going to end immigration.
12:09And then Elon Musk said,
12:10Hey guys,
12:11okay,
12:12fine,
12:13but don't forget,
12:14a lot of brains,
12:15EH,
12:16the numbers are there.
12:17I made a quick request to Chad GPT.
12:21I say,
12:22okay,
12:22what is the percentage of doctors,
12:24EH,
12:25foreign doctoral students in the American system?
12:2845% of new PhD graduates in the United States
12:32are international students on temporary visas.
12:3562% in computer science,
12:3755%,
12:3856% in engineering,
12:4053% in mathematics and statistics.
12:43That also explains it,
12:44and the countries of origin,
12:45look,
12:46look at China,
12:47India,
12:48South Korea,
12:49Iran,
12:49Bangladesh,
12:50Saudi Arabia,
12:51it's quite funny.
12:53France is in 27th place
12:55and 0.6% of the total.
12:58But it's super interesting
12:59to have these results.
13:01Super,
13:01super interesting.
13:02So I think you've kind of understood my point of view,
13:05it's okay,
13:06soft power belonged to the United States until today
13:09and now Trump is destroying the soft power of the United States.
13:13That is to say,
13:14everyone,
13:15the Europeans who wanted to go to the United States are saying no,
13:17but maybe that we're going to wait a little bit.
13:19And people around the world are saying,
13:21well,
13:21maybe we're going to wait a little bit.
13:23And even here's the prestige of the United States,
13:25which is ultimately strong,
13:27which is to attract the best minds on the planet,
13:29EH.
13:29I know that many Nobel Prize winners,
13:31including me,
13:32in my field,
13:33economics,
13:34there are several French Nobel Prize winners in economics,
13:37who are also graduates in France,
13:38who have degrees from the Ecole Normale Supérieure,
13:41Agrigés,
13:41etc.,
13:42who then went to the United States.
13:44That's where they received their Nobel Prize in.
13:46Unfortunately,
13:47they do it for American universities,
13:48but it was in the United States that they did it.
13:51Esther Duflott,
13:52for example,
13:53Gérard de Brayu,
13:55Tyrol,
13:55etc.
13:56There are really plenty of economists
13:58who are at MIT,
14:00EH,
14:00or at Harvard,
14:01etc.,
14:02and who are often foreigners.
14:06So China clearly understood,
14:08uh,
14:09that it had to be calm,
14:10and it's a fight,
14:11it's the art of war,
14:12and clearly the Chinese are winning part of the fight.
14:17They have a long-term strategy.
14:20Of course,
14:20they want to dominate trade,
14:21technology,
14:22artificial intelligence.
14:23We mustn't kid ourselves,
14:25there are no good guys,
14:26EH.
14:27The United States and the Chinese are clearly there to dominate.
14:31Uh,
14:32and but they are going,
14:33and they are clearly here in a strategy of independence.
14:36We don't want to depend on the United States,
14:39we don't want to depend on the world,
14:40we want to be the power.
14:42It has 1.25 trillion dollars in American bonds.
14:46That is to say,
14:49they can,
14:50if they want,
14:51use this lever.
14:53The worst thing is that they didn't even need to use it.
14:56Trump said,
14:57it's fine,
14:58I give up,
14:59why?
14:59Because China has the best cards at the moment.
15:02And besides,
15:03that's what I was saying to myself,
15:05but what Trump is doing isn't logical.
15:08Because in fact,
15:09by taxing China so heavily,
15:11he's penalizing American companies,
15:13Tesla,
15:14Apple,
15:14and others.
15:15He's penalizing his own companies since all these companies produce in China.
15:24Besides,
15:24Tim Cook at one point,
15:26I don't know if you've ever heard this podcast in which he said,
15:29without China,
15:30we could never produce what we're producing.
15:33We need China.
15:34Quote,
15:35Tim Cook,
15:35the CEO of Apple,
15:36is no joke.
15:38So you see once again that China doesn't even need to make announcements,
15:42it doesn't even need to make threats.
15:45It's just going to move forward silently,
15:47strategically,
15:48and coldly.
15:49And there,
15:50we see that Trump,
15:51well,
15:52ultimately,
15:52is very fragile.
15:54It's a house of cards.
15:55He promised to relocate production,
15:58well,
15:58we'll wait.
15:59He threatened to punish China.
16:02In this case,
16:03it's the United States that is doing the punishing.
16:06He said,
16:06I'm going to make the dollar a weapon,
16:08the dollar is collapsing.
16:11And he said,
16:12we're going to impose it,
16:13we're going to force people not to because at one point the BRIC countries explained that they were going to have their own currency.
16:21And then Trump said,
16:22if they ever do,
16:23we're going to attack them,
16:25they must use the dollar.
16:27Will he be able to impose that today?
16:29We agree that he won't.
16:30So we can clearly see that the United States is going backwards,
16:35both in terms of soft power and economically.
16:38So they're going backwards.
16:39Trump is losing face.
16:41Obviously,
16:42he just saved the day.
16:44But for how long?
16:46Because there's clearly a dynamic that we see in all the mink rankings and others.
16:51In 2050,
16:53China will be the world's leading economic power,
16:55and India will follow suit and become the second largest economic power.
16:59By the end of the century,
17:01India will be the world's leading economic power.
17:04Moreover,
17:05we're going to have a complete reversal in the economic ranking.
17:10Let's come back to this PricewaterhouseCoopers ranking,
17:13the world in 2050.
17:15And what does it tell us?
17:17In 2050,
17:18China will be number one,
17:19India number two,
17:21the United States number three,
17:23Indonesia number four,
17:24Brazil number five,
17:26Russia number six,
17:27Mexico number seven,
17:29Japan number eight,
17:30Germany number nine,
17:32Great Britain number ten.
17:34We see that France is dropping out of the ranking,
17:36and we see that some countries,
17:38for example,
17:39Germany was number five,
17:40will be nine.
17:43Great Britain,
17:44France,
17:44which was number ten in 2016,
17:47will be out of the rankings in 2050.
17:51And we can clearly see that these emerging countries will become the main economic powers on the planet.
17:56And in 2050,
17:59China will represent 20% of the global economy.
18:02The United States 12% of the global economy.
18:06The European Union 9% of the global economy.
18:10India,
18:1015% of the global economy.
18:12So you see India and China 20% to 15%.
18:16And the European Union,
18:19the 27 countries will only represent 9% of the global economy.
18:25So you see that in the next 30 years,
18:27or not even in the next 25 years,
18:29everything will be turned upside down.
18:31The global ranking will be completely turned upside down.
18:35And that's what we're experiencing right now.
18:37So,
18:38in conclusion,
18:38can we say that this is the end of the United States?
18:40Can we say that the financial markets are going to collapse?
18:43No,
18:43the United States is still there.
18:45It still has an aura.
18:46It will always attract talent and so on.
18:48It's true,
18:49and Ray Dalio says it precisely,
18:50right?
18:51We are in the process of changing regimes,
18:53right?
18:53As in the past,
18:54in history,
18:55we have always had cycles,
18:56and we have always had economic powers that dominated,
18:59and then,
19:00at a certain point,
19:01they were overtaken by other economic powers.
19:03This is what we are experiencing.
19:04We are experiencing the end of a world and the beginning of a new era with Chinese domination,
19:10Indian domination,
19:11so we must understand this and project ourselves into the future.
19:15And clearly,
19:16this is something that I have understood for a long time because it's unfortunate,
19:20but that's how it is.
19:21That's the economic reality.
19:23So I hope,
19:24friends,
19:24that you enjoyed this video.
19:26If so,
19:26feel free to leave me a comment.
19:28Also,
19:29feel free to tell me if you think Trump has just lost the economic war.
19:33Have the markets just disavowed him definitively?
19:37And is it ultimately like a passing of the baton,
19:39EH?
19:40That's what Ray Dalio says.
19:41Ray Dalio,
19:42who is a big hedge fund manager,
19:44who is a very serious person,
19:46says ultimately,
19:47well,
19:47it's China that will take over.
19:49And he says we are living this episode and we are living it live,
19:52and that's what's fascinating.
19:53Thank you very much,
19:54friends,
19:55don't hesitate to like,
19:55to share.
19:56I'll see you soon.
19:57Ciao.
19:57Ciao.