00:00Hi, everybody. I'm Brittany Lewis, a breaking news reporter here at Forbes. Joining me now
00:08is Keith Ives, CEO of Causal Design. Keith, thank you so much for joining me.
00:13Thanks for having me.
00:15The U.S. Agency for International Development has really been in Trump administration's
00:19crosshairs since President Trump started his second term. The State Department announced
00:25last week it told Congress that they are going to go through with effectively dismantling
00:30the entire agency and then reorganizing some of it to the State Department. But before
00:34we get into your reaction to that news, you've worked with USAID. Can you talk about how
00:39exactly you've worked with them and your company works with them?
00:43Yeah, thank you. Causal Design, we're a research, evaluation, and economic analysis
00:50firm. And for the past 11 years, we've been supporting USAID as well as other development
00:56organizations, nonprofits, and even governments overseas with understanding the impact of
01:04foreign assistance. So we design experiments and evaluations to, one, hold both donors
01:13and implementing partners, those nonprofits that are normally delivering projects overseas,
01:18to hold them accountable to ensure they're doing what they said they were going to do
01:22and avoiding the concerns of fraud, waste, and abuse. And then, two, we also help them
01:27optimize, providing research and insights into what works and also how to do it better
01:31and how to do it at a lower cost. And we've done that for years. We're a small business.
01:37And so 10 years ago when we started, we were doing a lot of small-scale elements. And then
01:42as of January this year, we were working in 25 countries around the world supporting USAID
01:48with these types of analytics and evaluation.
01:52So if you've been in this business now for over a decade, you have worked in the Obama
01:57years, Trump years, part one, Biden years, and Trump years, part two. What do you think
02:04then is missing from this conversation when it comes to the impact of foreign aid? Because
02:08people who are critical of this say, hey, this is not only hurting people abroad. This
02:12is hurting our friends abroad. This is also hurting research and small businesses here.
02:18People who are supporting the cuts are saying, hey, we need to put America first. There's
02:22a lot of waste, fraud, and abuse. Where do you land?
02:25Yeah. We've worked through numerous administrations, different political agendas and policy objectives.
02:35I think, one, we need to make sure that we, when we're talking about this, we talk about
02:40humanitarian assistance, which is something that individuals and communities might pursue
02:47on their own and value just on the value of life. And that is a tool that we use in foreign
02:55assistance. But foreign assistance isn't just humanitarian work. It's a policy tool. It's
03:01a relationship tool. And every administration uses it a little differently to focus on expanding
03:08trade, securing our borders, and reducing migration. The foreign policy is a much larger
03:14umbrella than just humanitarian assistance. And humanitarian assistance is one of those
03:19tools. It's one of the most powerful tools that we have to demonstrate to the world and
03:26other communities what we value and what it means to be American, to demonstrate and even
03:33nudge other countries towards the democratic values that we hold. It's an incredible tool.
03:40And it does. It's always, you know, for decades, it's been a tool that every administration
03:45has wanted to use. They might change it a little bit, but it's a powerful tool and it's
03:51dumbfounding to watch the administration dismantle it and set it aside.
03:56Let's talk about that reaction just a little bit more, because since President Trump came
04:00into office now the second time, USAID has faced cuts. Now the State Department says it
04:06is officially going to be shuttered with some of its responsibilities being moved over
04:10to the State Department. What is your reaction to that news?
04:15Well, today, I'm glad they have a plan, because since January 27th, we had a stop work
04:22order that stopped all aid flows, all foreign assistance, killed, you know, all of these
04:29activities, stopped them dead in their tracks. And then three months later, they finally
04:34have a plan. So I'm thrilled to see a plan.
04:37I actually think that the way that they're reorganizing, folding it under State Department,
04:41emphasizing the role of some other development agencies that we have in our government that
04:45we don't talk about as much, like the Millennium Challenge Corporation, the Development
04:50Finance Corporation. Those are powerful tools for foreign assistance and trade, and they
04:54were doing great work. And I'm glad that we're going to expand that work. And I think
04:59there'll be some synergies by bringing those together and having them more closely
05:03coordinated. I am concerned, though, that we are pulling everything into the State
05:08Department, which, you know, the State Department has a different objective.
05:13It has a different mission. And I think in quick glance, at a quick glance for the average
05:18American, we go, oh, the State Department does everything overseas.
05:22So it makes sense that everything international should be under the State Department.
05:26But their objectives are usually more political and more relational, whereas some of
05:33these other niche agencies like USAID have a different mission that that it's actually
05:38and there's an added value to it being independent in pursuing that.
05:43I want to read part of Secretary of State Marco Rubio's statement on this.
05:47He said this, quote, Thanks to President Trump, this misguided and fiscally irresponsible
05:53era is now over. We are reorienting our foreign assistance programs to align directly
05:58with what is best for the United States and our citizens.
06:01What do you make of that?
06:02And what it what do you think knowing because, you know, USAID, what do you think is
06:08best for the United States and its citizens?
06:11Well, first of all, calling this whole process responsible is just false.
06:18It wasn't a review.
06:20It was just a gutting.
06:22I heard the analogy.
06:23Someone said this was like doing surgery with an ax.
06:28Secretary Rubio asserted in court filings that he personally reviewed over 8000
06:36contracts to ensure that they weren't, you know, doing these things, that they're
06:41accusing the agency and its activities of do it.
06:44I saw the data point that somebody did the math on the period of time where he's
06:49asserted he did that review.
06:50And that means he would have dedicated on average eight seconds to every contractor
06:56review. There's no way that that was a responsible, intentional review.
07:03An example, one of the things contracts that our firm has that's been terminated now
07:08was to do the third party monitoring of our emergency food aid programs in the conflict
07:15affected areas of Sudan and South Sudan.
07:18I am really glad to see that some of the contracts and grants to deliver food aid
07:23continue in that area.
07:25But now who's monitoring it?
07:28Who's ensuring that the U.S.
07:29interests are actually being delivered when they just wholesale dismantle the foreign
07:34assistance program and activities?
07:38These aren't just individual pieces.
07:39It's a concert of contracts that ensure that we're delivering aid to the right places
07:45in the right way, that there isn't fraud.
07:48And I think they've intentionally or unintentionally dismantled actually a lot of
07:53the things that assure the American public that our dollars are being spent in a way
07:57that benefits America.
07:59I mean, if that math is correct and you're it's on average eight seconds to look at a
08:04contract, that's really not time, not enough time to read an entire contract, absorb it
08:10and then make a decision.
08:11So let's say you were talking not with me, but with Secretary of State Marco Rubio, what
08:16exactly would you tell him?
08:17I mean, what do you think he's missing here?
08:20Yeah, I don't know where I'd start because I'm so dumbfounded by the difference of
08:26what's being said and what was done.
08:29I would have loved a thorough review.
08:32I'm an evaluator.
08:33I've dedicated my career to aid, effectiveness and accountability in foreign
08:37assistance. I would have loved to have been a part of it.
08:40Let's do a review.
08:43Let's go through while programs continue.
08:45Let's go through and let's look at these and let's make them make sense for this
08:48administration. But the narrative that they're giving the public doesn't align with
08:54reality. Two of the contracts that Causal Design had terminated were issued by the last
09:02Trump administration.
09:04And if these are, in fact, fraud, waste and abuse, then under those two contracts that
09:10would have been under the supervision of Trump during his first administration.
09:14So that was his fraud, waste and abuse.
09:16And clearly that's not the case.
09:18These were meaningful, powerful and valid work that we were doing and they were just
09:23dismantling it. The other big point that I would I would make to Rubio is that these
09:30actions have not made America safer, stronger and more prosperous.
09:35What they've done is devastated small businesses here in America.
09:40When we go on the news and people hear about foreign assistance, they always think
09:45about the programs that are happening overseas in Africa, in Asia, in Latin America.
09:49And that's right. We should think about the humanitarian impact that we're having.
09:53But the people delivering that work are U.S.
09:57small businesses like our firm, our firm that lost 90 percent of its revenue.
10:02And as of tomorrow, April 1st, we'll be down to 10 percent of our employees.
10:12And by June 1st, I don't know that we'll be in business.
10:16This is killing businesses across the country.
10:18We're not a D.C. based firm.
10:20We're based here in Colorado.
10:23And and there are thousands of U.S.
10:25businesses and tens of thousands of Americans who've been devastated by this and the
10:32run on effect economically and socially here in America will be enormous.
10:37You're a veteran, you're a CEO of a small business, and it's really alarming to hear you
10:42say 90 percent of this business has been chopped at its knees.
10:46I don't know if we will be in business come June and tomorrow is April 1st.
10:51So talk to us a little bit about that.
10:54I mean, because this is being reorganized to the State Department, do you think is that a
10:58glimmer of hope for you or no?
11:02No, it's not.
11:04I think, again, we need to be clear that this isn't it is a reorganization of our foreign
11:11aid infrastructure, but it's still a gutting up.
11:13It's still a complete dismantling of those systems.
11:18There are programs that are continuing and those are going to continue under the State
11:21Department, but they're a fraction, a fraction of what was being done before.
11:25The majority is going to be concentrated on that emergency humanitarian work.
11:30As well as some that's that's more focused on economic development and investment, and
11:35again, I'm thrilled to see some pieces moving forward, but it's such a small fraction.
11:40It's not going to help not us as small businesses.
11:44You know, the other piece is that this review process.
11:49Delta blow to our business and probably hundreds of other small businesses working in
11:54this area that we can't recover from.
11:57Our firm has invoices from November and December and January for work that was
12:03approved and delivered that still hasn't been paid.
12:08It wasn't just the review.
12:09We haven't been paid and we're not alone in this.
12:13And we've been paid for for work we did last year.
12:18And because of that, the financial implications, I'm not sure that we can recover.
12:24I'm not sure that U.S.
12:26banks are going to make credit available to firms like ours anymore.
12:32You know, the government has always been seen as a very safe and reliable client.
12:36And when when small businesses that work in government contracting seek financial tools
12:41to finance this work, it's a safe bet for banks.
12:45Government contracting is not a safe bet for banks anymore.
12:49The Treasury is not releasing payments.
12:53That is really, really alarming to hear.
12:56I mean, do you think that the Trump administration knows just how devastating these
13:01cuts have been for small for small businesses like your own?
13:07I hope so.
13:08I think my concern is they're moving so fast and and so swiftly and so dramatically
13:18that they're not paying attention.
13:20You know, if there was the due diligence of the unintended consequences, then then they
13:27wouldn't have done this and they would have done it with with intention.
13:31We had no warning when our stop work orders came for 100 percent of our U.S.
13:37federal work.
13:38There was no warning. It wasn't a, hey, we're going to turn these programs off.
13:43We're going to ramp down and give us all time to pivot.
13:47They they cut it with an axe.
13:52Didn't pay us what they owed us.
13:54For work before the executive order, you can't take those sort of actions unless, you
14:02know, you're someone like Elon Musk or Trump and and you're not going to feel those
14:07consequences. You're not concerned about the small guy.
14:10I mean, this is there's just no way around it.
14:14This is demolishing small businesses.
14:16And while they they do this, they parrot these lines like, oh, it's just Beltway bandits
14:21and it's just D.C.
14:22and it's it's the swamp.
14:25But I'm sitting here in Denver, Colorado, with employees in 11 states, and that's who's
14:31being hit. And you're sitting in Denver, Colorado, still waiting to get paid for work you
14:36did in 2024.
14:38So how how are you going to get paid for that work?
14:41Is there any lawsuit?
14:42What are what are your next steps?
14:45Yeah, so we are engaged through a membership association, the Small Business Association
14:51of International Companies, and we're a plaintiff in a court case, one that's gone all
14:55the way to the Supreme Court now and then come back down and told the government you need
14:59to pay them for work they did.
15:02But those those payments are are slow coming.
15:05I think some of our peers have gotten paid up to maybe 50 or 60 percent of what the
15:12government owes them. We still haven't received our payments.
15:15And the government is is saying that they're going to pay them.
15:19They're saying they need another month.
15:22But again, that's those unintended consequences.
15:24And their original filings, they said, oh, we have no way of making these payments.
15:29And our point back to them was, well, that's what happens when you fire everyone in an
15:34agency and you get rid of all your contract officers, you get rid of everyone who approves
15:38the the the payments.
15:43The the analogy that that I read was, you know, the government's saying they don't have
15:49the infrastructure to ensure that these payments are made and get them done on a timely
15:54basis is is akin to the child who kills his parents and then begs for mercy because he's
16:01an orphan. They they obliterated the system and now are complaining that they don't have
16:07the capability to pay us what the what we're owed.
16:11Keith, I will certainly be hoping for a follow up conversation here, but before I do, I
16:16am curious, what is what's next for causal design?
16:20Because you're saying, hey, we might not be in business come June.
16:24I know you're a veteran, you're you were a veteran, a Marine veteran.
16:29I am related to Marine veterans.
16:30I know just how problem solving, solution oriented they are.
16:35I mean, what's next for you?
16:36What what are you thinking of next?
16:39Yeah. Adapt, improvise and overcome.
16:42The last few months have leveraged all of that.
16:46And every day I wake up and go, how do we solve today's problem?
16:49Right now, my my focus is on our employees, which we've been trying to give them as much
16:55notice and financial assistance as possible, making sure that that they land and they
17:00continue their careers.
17:02To be honest, I'm not worried about the business.
17:05I'm worried about our staff.
17:07I'm worried about the sector as a whole.
17:09I'm working hard with industry associations.
17:11I'm talking to my representatives and trying to get out the message about how important
17:15this work is. And I'll figure out what's next for me later on.
17:22But that that's, you know, since I was 18 and raised my hand and stepped onto the yellow
17:29footprints to become a Marine, I've been mission, mission oriented.
17:32And that's been in humanitarian action.
17:35It's been in development economics and now in in accountability on aid.
17:39We'll figure out what's next.
17:41The mission will continue.
17:42Keith, I really appreciate the conversation today.
17:46Best of luck to you, and I hope we can have a follow up soon.
17:48Thank you again for joining me.
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