Market Rally Fades As 60% Of CFOs Now Expect A Recession In The Second Half Of 2025

The market opened the week with a rally on hopes of easing tariffs, but confidence within corporate America remains shaky, according to a CNBC survey. Sixty percent of CFOs expect a recession in the second half of the year, and another 15% forecast one in 2026. That is up significantly from 7% last quarter. Pessimism has surged due to tariff uncertainty, shifting White House messaging, and concerns over resurgent inflation. U.S. trade policy is now cited as the top external business risk by 30% of CFOs. Capex plans are softening, and 95% of CFOs say policy uncertainty affects business decisions.