00:00If you look at the normal timing and the evolution of viruses,
00:03there were three pandemics in the 20th century.
00:05We haven't had one for 37 years.
00:08So notwithstanding what's going on in Southeast Asia,
00:12you would say we're about due for the natural evolution of how pandemics occur.
00:30When you think in terms of the possibility of a pandemic flu,
00:36there's a broad spectrum of the possibility of whether it will come,
00:40and if so, to what degree it's going to be really serious.
00:44And we have that from experience in the 20th century,
00:46when you had the 1918 flu,
00:49which was a public health catastrophe of 50 million plus people worldwide died.
00:54Then you have the 1968 pandemic flu,
00:56which was really relatively mild,
00:58not significantly greater than the seasonal flu.
01:01So when you have what's going on in Southeast Asia,
01:03namely the chicken, fox infected, et cetera,
01:06and people getting infected,
01:07although inefficiently, there's now a total of 118 cases,
01:12there's still the potential for there being a very serious public health catastrophe.
01:17The question most Americans have is probably the one that's most difficult to answer.
01:21How scared should people be about this?
01:24As you said, Ron, it's almost impossible to answer that question.
01:28We should be concerned,
01:30but the concern should be an impetus for preparedness
01:35and not an impetus for fear or for panic
01:39and thinking that the end of the world is coming.
01:42And it's an understandable reaction
01:43when the American public sees the flurry of activity
01:47that Susan was referring to,
01:49they immediately interpret that with the inevitability
01:52that there's going to be a catastrophe.
01:53And that's not the case.
01:54In fact, if you look at it in the big picture,
01:58it's unlikely that we're going to have a pandemic flu
02:01that's going to essentially roar through the population of the world
02:04and cause a 1918.
02:06But the possibility exists, likely a small possibility.
02:11So as I was mentioning before,
02:12that spurs us to prepare for the worst case scenario.
02:16And when the American public sees you preparing for the worst case scenario,
02:20sometimes they assume that the worst case scenario is inevitable,
02:23and it's not.
02:24So we should say, stay tuned, monitor and follow what's going on.
02:29It's a serious situation,
02:30but it's not anything for people to be frightened about.
02:33If we're planning for the worst case scenario,
02:34isn't it possible that we're planning and spending money
02:37that we don't have on something that's not going to happen?
02:39That is a possibility and a reality you just have to face
02:43and the balance and priority of things.
02:45If you plan for the worst case scenario and it doesn't come,
02:48people will naturally say, well, then you wasted money.
02:51But if you don't plan for the worst case scenario when it comes,
02:54then you've been grossly negligent and irresponsible.
02:57It's a tough call.
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