Seth Lugo's Surprising Rise and Strategic Fantasy Pick

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00:00Talk about this particular Royals pitcher.

00:03Look, do I think there's regression in Seth Lugo?

00:05Probably.

00:06And if you recall last year in the fantasy baseball black

00:08book, this was my big breakout pitcher investment of 2025

00:13and people were like, I said, Lugo really?

00:15I said, look, if he can go ahead and continue what he did

00:18in San Diego last year with the Kansas City Royals, he's

00:21going to have a phenomenal breakout season.

00:23He's going to be a guy that wins you drafts.

00:25I think he was going somewhere around like 280 P or at

00:28170.

00:28It was absurd wherever he was.

00:30It was so late in drafts where it didn't cost you anything

00:32to be wrong on Seth Lugo.

00:34And guess what?

00:34It doesn't cost you anything now because he's at 148, 148

00:39overall for a guy who was challenging for a Cy Young.

00:42So, yes, if I'm going to be fair, Pablo Lopez, XFIP, XERA

00:47were all better than his ERA.

00:49Seth Lugo, his XFIP was higher.

00:52His FIP was higher and his XFIP was higher, but none of

00:55which were at four.

00:57We're talking about 375 or 325 and 383.

01:00All tenable numbers, right?

01:02We know the beginning of the year, Seth Lugo wasn't striking

01:04out a lot of guys, but that changed after the first six

01:06starts of the season.

01:07And Seth Lugo started striking out guys.

01:09Look, I'm not saying Seth Lugo is Pablo Lopez.

01:12I'm not saying he's even Justin Steele.

01:14I'm saying is he is going far too late in drafts right now

01:18considering what he gave you last year.

01:21And I think it's important to not discard or discount the

01:2433 starts and the 200 innings.

01:26And that's another thing.

01:26I know people are concerned.

01:28We threw 200 innings, but he doesn't have the same miles

01:30on him as he was a, he was a relief pitcher for most of

01:33his tenure with the Mets, a spot starter at best at times.

01:36He got his opportunity with the Padres.

01:38We've seen what the Padres have done.

01:39They got the best out of Dylan Cease.

01:41Look what they got out of Michael King last year.

01:43So look, Seth Lugo was turned around.

01:45His career was turned around to me.

01:47I know he's 35 years old.

01:49I know it was too good to be true last year, but the ADP

01:53is too good not to buy in again in 2025.

01:55All right.

01:56Let's quickly move through the remainder of this list.

01:58I think this next guy just suffers of people going, oh,

02:01I don't think they know enough about the Astros pitching

02:03staff now that a lot of the big names are gone.

02:05Let's talk about this name Joe.

02:07Well, we talked about Hunter Brown a couple weeks ago

02:09on the show.

02:09He was our deep dive, right?

02:10Remember we did Hunter Brown the first month of April

02:12at an ERA over 10.

02:14After that, he had an AERA.

02:15The rest of his starts at 285.

02:17So what more do I have to sell you on folks?

02:19Hunter Brown is good.

02:21He had a terrible April.

02:22He made adjustments.

02:23He fixed it.

02:24He is going to be a starter.

02:25You need to be investing it in 2025.

02:28I'm sorry.

02:28There's just extreme value here.

02:30This team is still pretty good.

02:31And if Cam Smith comes along quickly and fills that base

02:34spot, he's going to really help that offense.

02:37And then the other guy is Spencer Schwellenbach, another

02:40player that, you know, last year came up and struggled

02:43a little bit and that's okay.

02:47As long as you figure things out and I think what you're

02:49looking for is Schwellenbach to build on what you saw

02:51last year in this Braves rotation.

02:53Braves are still a really good team.

02:55He threw 123 big league innings last year.

02:5721 starts, struck out 127 guys, a 335 ERA and a 1.04 whip.

03:02He's going to give you whip.

03:03He's going to give you ERA.

03:04He's got good solid strikeout potential.

03:06The win potential is there.

03:08So the question is, what does it look like when it gets

03:11to 150 big league innings this year?

03:13Well, we can cross that threshold when we come to it.

03:15As an investment right now where Schwellenbach is going

03:19once again at 92, almost 100th player overall, same range

03:22as Hunter Green.

03:23Now, Hunter Green's a guy I like more for strikeouts, but

03:26if you're looking to lower whip and ERA, Schwellenbach

03:29might be the safer guy for that.

03:31Probably more win potential as well.

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