Retired Rear Admiral Mark Montgomery, senior director of the Center on Cyber and Technology Innovation at the FDD, discusses the ongoing ceasefire talks between the U.S., Russia, and Ukraine, what the deal entails, and whether it will come to fruition.
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NewsTranscript
00:00Hi, everybody. I'm Brittany Lewis, a breaking news reporter here at Forbes. Joining me now
00:07is retired Rear Admiral Mark Montgomery, a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense
00:11of Democracies. Mark, thank you so much for joining me.
00:15Thank you for having me, Brittany.
00:16A really important and fluid conversation. I want to note where we are right now in terms
00:21of time. It's eleven forty five a.m. Eastern Time on Thursday. And this is important because
00:27the ongoing negotiations between the United States, Ukraine and Russia are ongoing. So
00:32let's talk about where we are. Earlier this week, Ukraine agreed to a U.S. proposed immediate
00:3730 day ceasefire deal in the war with Russia. And a U.S. envoy arrived in Moscow today on
00:43Thursday to negotiate with Russia. And based on reporting, it isn't looking too optimistic
00:48that Russia is going to agree to this deal as is. A top aide to Putin reportedly said
00:54that the deal gives them nothing based on what you're hearing, based on what you're
00:57seeing from the ceasefire negotiation. What do you make of where we are right now?
01:01Well, Brittany, that was a great summary, because I think where we are is the United
01:05States has conducted a maximum pressure campaign on its ally, Ukraine, and Ukraine is buckled.
01:12They've given in on what will be a critical minerals deal for us or some type of payback
01:16for $150 to $170 billion that we've given Ukraine and mostly military assistance. It
01:25also freezes in place the Russian gains, both the 2014 gains in Crimea and in Eastern Ukraine,
01:33but also some increased gains that Russia's had over the last three years. And in theory,
01:40it would give some vague security guarantees to Ukraine, but also most importantly, the
01:46turn back on of U.S. information sharing, intelligence sharing, and weapons shipments.
01:54So Ukraine fully negotiated in public with the United States its position. And now we're
02:00reaching out to Russia, which obviously is a suboptimal way to negotiate with an authoritarian
02:06regime with a penchant for power.
02:09And I think what's interesting, if you've negotiated anything in your life, whether
02:13it be personal for a salary, anything, you know that if you're compromising to begin
02:18with before the other person has even negotiated at all, that's not a good position to be in.
02:24And we saw what was on display in the White House less than two weeks ago with President
02:30Trump's meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. And from there, it was really fiery,
02:37really chaotic. And after that meeting, critics labeled President Trump everything from a
02:42Putin apologist to someone who's cozying up to a dictator. Based on those characterizations,
02:47based on the negotiations that we're seeing today, what do you make of that?
02:52I think we have to hold our fire on that. Look, I'm disappointed with how we treated
02:56President Zelensky. I think he is a hero of our generation for the way he fought off a
03:02invasion by a Russian army 10 times the size of his country. And when confronted,
03:08asked by the Biden administration, do you want a plane to get out? He said,
03:11I don't need a plane. I need weapons. I mean, this man is a hero. However,
03:16I don't know that we can pass judgment on President Trump until we see how he responds
03:20to Putin now. When Steve Wyckoff, his negotiator going into Russia, gets what I think is likely
03:28to be a rejection of the current terms, does President Trump then do the smart thing, which
03:33is a maximum pressure campaign on Russia, the protagonist, the instigator, the invader of
03:41Ukraine? And if he does that, and he can do that through a number of methods, what weapons we give
03:46them, the restrictions on those weapons, economic sanctions, affecting oil shipments throughout
03:54China and India, a maximum pressure campaign on Russia will force Russia to come to the table as
04:01well. Because just like Vladimir Zelensky, Russia does not hold the cards either. The United States
04:07holds the cards. Let's talk about what Putin's aide is saying, because this is what Reuters has
04:13quoted him as saying, quote, I stated our position, meaning Russia's position, that this is nothing
04:18other than a temporary respite for the Ukrainian military, nothing more. And then he reiterated
04:23this quote, it gives us nothing, meaning the deal. It only gives the Ukrainians an opportunity to
04:28regroup, gain strength and to continue the same thing. Is this just tough talk from Russia as a
04:34negotiating tactic? Or do you really think they're not going to get on board? They're not going to
04:38play ball? I'm not sure there are concessions that Russia could get and give a little enough
04:47that they would play ball. But I don't think Zelensky is in that position. In other words,
04:51if Zelensky were to agree to no foreign troops, or Zelensky were to agree to no rearming,
05:01and some weird election scheme in Ukraine, then I think Russia would deal. But to me,
05:07those are unacceptable concessions for Zelensky and for Ukraine. So, I do think we're very quickly
05:14going to come to a point where Russia will have to be induced to agree. And the way they're
05:19induced to agree is a maximum pressure campaign executed by the United States under the leadership
05:26of Donald Trump. If we don't do it, we're going to be left in this middle land with no agreement.
05:32If he does it, I think over time, it may take two or three months, but Russia will see how weak its
05:37hand is. And talk to us about that a little bit more. You mentioned that with sanctions,
05:42with weapons. If you were advising the President, let's say Russia says no deal here,
05:48and you're saying, okay, President Trump, what you need to do is a maximum pressure campaign
05:52on Russia. What would you want to see? So, the first thing I would do is first,
05:57again, turn to my European partners and remind them that they are the principal suppliers of
06:02weapons, purchasers of weapons for the Ukrainians. Unfortunately, our defense industrial base is
06:07probably where they'll have to go to buy some of this stuff, but that's okay. What we're going to
06:11say is you're responsible for the security. Whether you use the $300 billion in Russian
06:16funds that they've frozen, or that they use new European money, begin to flow more European money
06:22in. Then release all the weapons systems that are flowing to Ukraine from the United States. They
06:26still have $20 billion plus worth of weapons systems previously purchased that could flow to
06:33them. And give them, and then open up some new ones, like more ATAKMS. They're a long-range
06:39ground-launched weapon. More airdropped weapons from the F-16s. Give them permissions to use those
06:47longer-range weapons at their maximum ranges inside Russia, affecting Russian troop concentrations,
06:53affecting Russian airfields. So, increased weapons, fewer restrictions on the weapons
06:59to increase their likelihood of success. And then finally, a serious sanctioning campaign
07:05against Russian fossil fuels, oil and natural gas. What I mean by that is we already have some
07:13sanctions on what's called the shadow fleet, but really sanction the secondary and tertiary
07:19receivers of that oil. Cut off their ability to sell that. Russia is vulnerable. Their economy
07:26is driven largely by the sale of these fossil fuels. And their whole government budget is
07:3345 percent, 40 to 45 percent for defense, 50 to 55 percent for buying votes from babushkas, right?
07:40You know, either way, if he has to cut that down, Putin's going to have real trouble. He either
07:46can't fund the war, or he can't fund his supporters throughout the country.
07:53Either way, he's in real trouble. Got to cut off his access to resources from his fossil fuels.
08:01I think what you mentioned at the beginning of this conversation is important.
08:05This is really a David and Goliath story. If you remember three years ago in February of 2022,
08:11no one thought Ukraine was going to last more than a couple of days. They thought Ukraine
08:15was going to fall pretty immediately. President Zelensky said, I'm not leaving. He said that
08:19video of exactly where he was. He was offered a plane out, like you said, and he said, no,
08:23I need more weapons. The Kremlin said, though, that the tides have changed now for Russia.
08:28Russia is anticipating that their military is going to take back the Kursk region.
08:33As we know, Ukraine took that over in a surprise offensive last year. Do you think this action,
08:39this changing of the tide for Russia, is impacting these talks at all?
08:45I'm glad you put it out, Brittany. You're absolutely right. You know,
08:47they've captured back about 85 percent of the Kursk region they've lost.
08:52Ukrainians now hold 77 square miles. It's about two districts of Columbia is what they have right
08:59now. It's a very small patch of property. I think they're going to lose it. They need to
09:03exfiltrate those troops safely, get them back behind Ukrainian lines, and preserve as much of
09:08the force they can. But that does not mean Russia's won. Russia's on the front foot,
09:13but the Russian military has serious problems. They don't operate well together. They fight in
09:19what can only be described as a gruesome, feeding their soldiers, men, into a meat grinder. They're
09:29losing men at an unbelievable level. They're now having to recruit, they're now having to draft
09:37Slavic youth from Moscow and St. Petersburg areas. This will have an impact on Putin's
09:44popularity at home, a negative impact, these losses. I think he has a problem coming with
09:50manpower in about the 2026 timeframe. So as President Trump would like to say, Vladimir
09:56Putin, you do not have the cards here. The United States can make this a painful experience for you.
10:02So get to the negotiating table with real concessions to match President Zelensky's
10:07concessions, and then we can have peace. Without that, the United States should support Ukraine
10:12in a way that eventually bends Putin to Trump's will.
10:17To your point, no one is holding the cards here. Russia's army is facing serious problems.
10:22Ukraine made a deal of concessions before Russia was even brought to the negotiating table.
10:27Who is the winner in this deal?
10:31Again, we won't know, Brittany, until we see how President Trump plays President Putin.
10:37If I say right now, Zelensky's really laid his cards out. He's played all the concessions he can.
10:44So if he does not get equal concessions from Russia, we will not have a peace treaty
10:50or even a cessation of hostilities. So from my perspective, we do not know
10:54until President Trump plays his strongest card, a maximum pressure campaign on Russia.
11:01I know that a lot remains to be seen here as you and I are talking,
11:05because I noted at the top of the conversation, the U.S. envoy is in Russia right now.
11:10They're negotiating with Russia. What specifically are you looking out for next?
11:16A readout from that meeting and a readout, both of the Russian version
11:20and the American readout, because they could be somewhat different. And then
11:24President Trump's reaction. He's already hinted he could use sanctions to hurt Putin.
11:32He's already turned the spigot back on for intelligence sharing and for weapon system flow.
11:39So Vladimir Putin's got to know he's got risk here. So let's see what happens at the end of
11:44this meeting. Mark Montgomery, I always appreciate our conversations. I appreciate your insight,
11:50your expertise. You are welcome back anytime. And I specifically hope that you come back
11:54as we see more of these negotiations fleshed out. Thank you for your time.
11:59Thank you for having me, Brittany. Great to be with you.