ASX bounces back from six-month low

The local share market managed a small rise today after the US market went up on Friday.

Transcript

00:00Today is the 25th anniversary of the peak of the dot-com bubble, which was embodied

00:07in the Nasdaq index.

00:09It peaked at 5,132.5 and over the following two and a half years it fell 78%.

00:16Today the Nasdaq is more than tripled that March 2000 peak and has fallen 9.5% so far.

00:21Here's a chart of the main US index, the S&P 500, comparing Donald Trump's first

00:26term with his second so far.

00:29A big difference, as you can see, and that's partly due to the rising odds of a recession,

00:34in turn caused by the prospect of tariffs and the general uncertainty going on.

00:39This graph comes from a New York betting shop so it's not what you'd call a statistical

00:43model but this one is more statistical and it's going viral right now.

00:48The Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank's GDP Now model is saying the US is already in recession.

00:55The other reason US shares are falling is simply that they've gone up so much because

00:58of another tech boom, or perhaps bubble, especially since Donald Trump's first election.

01:04This graph uses market value compared to GDP.

01:08It's a record high so it could be time for an adjustment.

01:12Another sidelight worth noting is that although most of the attention has been on technology

01:17and AI, tobacco stocks have done even better and that's because governments did them

01:22a huge favour by banning their biggest cost, advertising and marketing.

01:27Saved them a fortune.

01:29The Aussie market went up today, dutifully following the US.

01:33Suspended Star Entertainment is bleeding in the water so naturally sharks are circling.

01:37US casino giant Bally's is offering $250 million for 50.1%.

01:43Star was too busy to respond.

01:47The US market rose on Friday but Hong Kong fell 2% today.

01:51And the Aussie dollar is steady tonight at 63.1 US cents.

01:55And that's finance.