Russia likely to seek lifting of US sanctions, expert says

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00:00more on this story we can bring in Scott Lucas, Professor of US and International Politics at the

00:05Clinton Institute at University College Dublin. Thank you so much for joining us on the program

00:10today. Now, in the past hour or so, we've had a statement from Russia's foreign ministry that

00:15says it wants NATO to disavow a 2008 promise made to Ukraine that it would someday be a part

00:21of the military alliance. Without Ukraine or Europe as part of these discussions underway

00:27in Riyadh, will Washington have a freer hand to make broader concessions?

00:33Well, I think the starting point is that Russia is setting the terms of the negotiations.

00:38Now, we don't know yet if the Trump administration will effectively bow down to those terms,

00:44or indeed, in the case of Donald Trump, embrace them for his own personal glory. But what is

00:50quite clear here is not only are Ukraine and Europe being removed from these negotiations,

00:56but Russia is taking the starting point, which is not only no NATO invitation for Ukraine,

01:03but will go further, as was signaled by their UN ambassador last night,

01:07no security guarantees for Ukraine, a limited Ukraine military and limited military assistance

01:15from other countries for that military. And in addition, beyond that headline,

01:20I think the immediate thing that Russia will be looking for is lifting of US sanctions,

01:26because Russia is facing a fairly significant economic point in 2025 as to whether it can

01:32continue to fund this invasion. And if Donald Trump lifted sanctions, that would give Vladimir

01:37Putin a lot more freedom on the political and military fronts.

01:40You're saying that Moscow appears to be setting the tone, but it seems that the tone was already

01:45set last week when we had Pete Hegseth, who said Russia joining NATO seemed unrealistic.

01:53Ukraine joining NATO rather seemed unrealistic.

01:57Yeah, I mean, we cannot minimize the effects of the speech of the US Defense Secretary Pete

02:03Hegseth and the Vice President J.D. Vance, who in effect, were willing to give into Russia's

02:11terms or indeed actually go along with Russia's terms. That's part of the reason why Europe had

02:16to respond with this emergency summit yesterday in Paris. The question was always going to be,

02:22were other Trump administration officials, and there are a couple of them in those talks in

02:27Riyadh, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, the National Security Advisor Mike Waltz,

02:32are they on the same page as Hegseth and as Vance? Significantly, in what I think is a

02:39signal that yes, the US is going to follow the Russian line, at least on NATO. Keith Kellogg,

02:45who is supposed to be Trump's envoy for Ukraine, is not at those talks in Riyadh,

02:50instead, of course, he's in Brussels today, talking to Ursula von der Leyen and Antonio

02:54Castro. Why do you think Washington is reluctant to bring Europe on board for these talks at this

03:01stage? Because Donald Trump wants to have a photo opportunity with Vladimir Putin.

03:08And Russia plays upon that. Russia is, well, you want this photo opportunity. We don't really think

03:13Europe's being helpful here. And the fact that we have to be honest with your viewers is Donald

03:19Trump has been hostile to Europe for many years. He was hostile during his first term towards

03:26Europe. He was hostile towards the EU. He was hostile towards NATO. He does not actually

03:31believe in alliances. He believes in dealing bilaterally with countries. So when Russia says

03:37to Trump, look, let's you and us strike a deal, let's strike a bilateral deal. Trump acts as a

03:43businessman, not as the leader of the United States in responding to that. In other words,

03:48alliances are disposable for Donald Trump. And of course, for Russia, they just get in their way.

03:55From what we're hearing, reports are coming out now from these talks. It seems that the

04:01discussions have gone well and are positive. Now, yesterday, you know, we had certain European

04:09states who met here at the Elysee Palace. Europe clearly trying to sing from the same song sheet,

04:15but divisions still persist. What, if anything, did that meeting in Paris achieve?

04:22I think there's been a distraction on the summit in Paris, which is this focus on whether or not

04:29European troops or troops from European countries are going to be deployed in Ukraine. The reason

04:36why I say that's tangential is you can't deploy those troops until you actually have a ceasefire

04:42agreement. So what was far more important yesterday was the signal that Europe, first of all,

04:47are going to provide financial and military support to Ukraine if the US steps back. And secondly,

04:53that Europe will work with Ukraine to insist that there can be no agreement, absolutely no

04:59agreement without the participation of Kiev and its consent. And thirdly, that Europe will insist

05:06that security guarantees must be part of any agreement, which means that Russia cannot dictate

05:12those terms that we talked about at the start of the interview. I think Europe realizes you cannot

05:18have effective security guarantees for Ukraine and eventually any type of deployment in Ukraine

05:24without US involvement. But right now, they're not going to get their involvement. So they simply have

05:30to say no agreement, no agreement with the Russians without Ukraine's security being paramount.

05:38Do you think, because up until now, Donald Trump has, he's called upon Europe to do more to ensure

05:46its own security. Now that Europe steps up and says, okay, certain countries would be willing

05:52to send boots on the ground to ensure some sort of peacekeeping mission in Ukraine, would that

05:58still not satisfy him, you think? No, because Trump's, again, approach is not talking about

06:05the security of the continent. It's not talking about geopolitics. It's about making Donald Trump

06:11look good. You know, that whole issue of NATO stepping up, which was recognized back in 2014,

06:17before Trump came into office, Trump would try to claim credit for it later on. Look,

06:21I'm the guy that made this all about. But now what Trump wants to do is he wants to say,

06:26I want to have a quick win. Remember, he said on day one of his new term, we're going to have a

06:32Ukraine-Russia peace agreement. He wants that photo opportunity with Putin declaring the agreement,

06:38even if Kiev has to capitulate. That's the reality that I think Europe has woken up to.

06:44It cannot, it cannot undo what Trump is doing. But it has to start to devise its own negotiating

06:51tactics, working with Kiev as some type of firewall against both the Kremlin and against

06:57the Trump White House. Okay. Scott Lucas, I'm going to have to leave it there. Thank

07:00you so much for joining us on the program today. Thank you.

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