00:00More than halfway through India's general election, which is seven phases long, the
00:08big question everyone is asking is, has the tide turned against the BJP?
00:13Well, that's a difficult question to answer.
00:16And I do think that journalists should avoid becoming pundits and trying to look at a crystal
00:20ball and gaze into the future.
00:22The fact is that going into this election, the BJP was the clear frontrunner and there
00:27was very little doubt in the minds of most analysts and commentators that they would
00:31come back with a good majority.
00:33However, something seems to have shifted in the last few weeks, at least as far as the
00:37narrative is concerned.
00:39And the reason for that is the BJP's own behaviour and the way that it has conducted its own
00:44campaign, which has led many to believe that while they are still the frontrunners in this
00:49election, they may not come back with the numbers that they themselves had projected
00:54for a third term for Mr Modi.
00:57If you look, for example, at the way this campaign has gone, the first is that this
01:01is not a big wave election like the one in 2014 or in 2019.
01:06There's no one big overarching issue or message from the prime minister and from the BJP,
01:11which is being told to voters.
01:13So in that sense, it's a waveless election.
01:16The voter turnout has also been kind of okay.
01:19I mean, it's less than 2019, though not dramatically less than 2019 is the latest
01:25numbers show.
01:26But that again indicates a certain voter fatigue, perhaps with this campaign.
01:32Is that something that could work against the BJP?
01:34Well, we'll have to wait and see why this is happening.
01:37And there are other things such as the BJP being on the defensive all the time, responding
01:42to the Congress, responding to the attacks from the opposition, whether it's on changing
01:46the constitution and on other issues as well.
01:50So it gives a sense that the BJP camp is not entirely as confident as it was, say,
01:56even six weeks ago.
01:58That doesn't mean that the BJP is losing.
02:00Like I said, they are probably still the front runner in this race.
02:04The question now is, what will their numbers be and will they actually come down significantly?
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