The Royal Bank of Scotland Growth Tracker with Seb Burnside

The Royal Bank of Scotland Growth Tracker – a seasonally adjusted index that measures the month-on-
month change in the combined output of the region’s manufacturing and service sectors –rose from 46.9 in
December to 49.6 in January, offering some signs of optimism for Scotland’s business sector in 2025. The
softer contraction in private sector output was driven by a renewed uplift in services activity but partly offset a
further decline in manufacturing production.
Scottish firms continued to shed jobs at the start of 2025, after December data signalled a drop in employment
for the first time in almost two years. Services joined manufacturing in registering lower staffing.
Scottish private sector companies once again reported a decrease in new work intakes in January, with
companies signalling lower client demand relating this to greater uncertainty about domestic economic
conditions. The upcoming NI rise was also stated to have led customers to clamp down on spending.
Overall input prices rose at their sharpest pace since August 2023, with both services and manufacturing
recording a steeper rate of inflation than in December.