'Very real' risk of ceasefire 'unravelling', expert says

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00:00More on the developments so far. Let's speak now with Oliver McTernan, the co-founder and

00:05director of Forward Thinking, a charity that works on conflict resolution and mediation in

00:10the Middle East. Thank you so much for joining us. Now, we've now had four prisoner exchanges

00:17taking place. How do you see the developments so far? How fragile is this ceasefire and the

00:23situation? Well, I think both of your correspondents have captured, first of all,

00:31the high emotion. And I think in a very fragile situation, charged with emotion,

00:38it doesn't look promising. I feel the whole procedure is so drawn out that it's full of risks.

00:47When we see scenes like today on both sides and in Gaza, I fear the risk of this unravelling is

00:55very, very real. So, you're already seeing risks, huge risks there, but negotiations

01:04on the next phase are set to begin next week very soon. Who do you expect? Who can we expect

01:13will take part in terms of mediating those talks? Well, I would imagine it will be the

01:20Qataris assisted by the Egyptians that would be responsible. I think the role, as I understood it,

01:28the role of the Americans is to guarantee what is agreed upon. Now, I think the big problem with

01:37this whole system in the last 15 months has been that it's been carried out in the glare of public

01:46opinion and comment. And that must make it extremely difficult for the negotiators. Prime

01:53Minister Netanyahu is constantly making comments and constantly, if I may add, repeating his first

02:01goal in this war, which he clearly stated was to see the total demise of Hamas alongside then

02:08the release of the hostages. And for me, if he continues this, he's still continuing two goals

02:17that are just incompatible. So, I'm still worried about his intentions. I'm still worried what's

02:25going to happen to the 2.3 million people in Gaza? Are they going to be forced out of their

02:31place because of the inhumane conditions now that they're expected to live in? All of these

02:38issues are not being addressed. There's no political horizon to these negotiations.

02:43It's simply transactional. A number of people released for a number of hostages released.

02:50There's no vision of where this is going to take us and what will the future be. So,

02:55the risk of the cycle of violence continuing, I think, is very, very real.

03:00Indeed, several Middle East diplomats have already voiced opposition to potential forced

03:08displacement of Gaza, of Palestinians in Gaza. Donald Trump suggested that 2 million of them

03:16could be taken in by neighboring countries. What could we see going forward?

03:23Well, I think on a political level, it's just not acceptable. I can't see present Jordan or

03:32even Egypt being able to accommodate such a large number of Palestinian refugees. But I think what

03:41it would be disastrous for the future if they are forced what I would call involuntary migration

03:48because of the circumstances in Gaza. My worry is that it will be presented as a humanitarian option.

03:56People will say, look, we've let you back into the north. We've let you back down into Rafa.

04:02You see it's unlivable with the humanitarian option is to provide you sort of subsistence

04:09in another country. So, a ship will come in or Egypt will be pressurized to open the Sinai.

04:17I think this is disastrous. It'll be just a continuation of the cycle of violence.

04:22We are not solving the problem. At the end of the day, no one is addressing the root cause

04:29of what we've been witnessing over the past 15 months. And that's simply the ongoing occupation

04:35of the Palestinian territories, Gaza, the West Bank and East Jerusalem, and the failure to

04:40acknowledge and accept the Palestinian state until we have the political courage, I think,

04:46to do that at the international level, then what we're witnessing today will be repeated and repeated.

04:53Now, you have been looking at the situation for decades in the Middle East.

04:59Is the two-state solution now a faraway dream, do you think?

05:03Well, for me, I think it is the only realistic option. I think to talk about a one-state in light

05:12of what's happened and in light of the high emotion and mistrust that your correspondents

05:18captured earlier on, I think it is just a pipe dream to say that you can have a one-state. I think

05:25how two states evolve, whether they evolve into a federation and whatever in the future,

05:32or indeed one state, is a matter for the people themselves to decide. But I think what we need now

05:38is to restore a sense of international order to act on the Declaration of 1948. What's given

05:46Israel legitimacy should also give a Palestinian sovereign independent state legitimacy.

05:53Then as two states, it is up to them to work out the future and what sort of

05:59political structure they think would be workable.

06:03To that end, how do you view the political situation in both

06:08the Palestinian Authority and in Israel?

06:14I wish I could give you a short answer to that. I think it is really distressing,

06:22first of all, to see the disunity that is still in the Palestinian political front,

06:29that the split between Hamas, Fatah and other factions, I think is regrettable.

06:36What's needed is a determination now, in light of this horror that they've endured as a people,

06:43a determination to get a unified approach and a unified government.

06:49I think on the Israeli side, it's equally split. There is profound differences. When I visit the

06:55Knesset, I'm very aware of the profound differences in the political vision,

07:02but what's holding them together now is the united trauma of what happened on October 7th.

07:08People are holding on because they feel that's the right thing to do in these circumstances.

07:16But on both sides, there needs to be a lot of discussion, a lot of trying to discover

07:26what is in the best interest of each country and each people, and a fear that lots of the

07:32actions being taken and supported by America and other countries, a lot are very short-sighted,

07:41immediate solutions that will bring long-term problems.

07:46Now, US President Donald Trump is set to meet the Israeli Prime Minister next week.

07:51What role might he play in the next stages now that he has taken office?

07:57Well, my hope would be that Trump will pressurize Netanyahu to make this ceasefire permanent

08:05and to get some political horizon, a vision of where we go from here. We cannot see a repetition

08:13of this. I look on Trump as the first American president to not wear the dress of principles.

08:23He is frank in what he sees as his priority, and what he sees as his priority in foreign policy

08:32and in the Middle East is the domestic interests of America. And those domestic interests were once

08:39summed up to me by a CIA analyst who said it's economic. And I think being transactional, what

08:47he will try to do is to find an economic solution for the region that will benefit first and foremost

08:57American domestic interests. To do this, I hope the Saudis will stand firm on their commitment

09:05that they will only normalize if they see the establishment of a Palestinian state.

09:10So, if Trump, I think, goes down this road, then I'm hopeful. If he thinks that he can

09:18deport the Palestinians, all of these issues, I think he is going to just add to the problems

09:25that we've been witnessing over the past 75 years.

09:29Oliver MacTernan, Director of Forward Thinking, thank you so much for your insight.

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