00:00Well, what you see is what you get, pretty direct, wants to take you by surprise and
00:05ultimately likes to win after a long and protracted negotiation, but he wants to win.
00:11So on those tariffs, I'm just thinking about the OECD's director general who here said
00:15it's in nobody's interest to have a trade war.
00:19What does Donald Trump as president's second time around mean for global trade?
00:23Well, he's got two basically roads.
00:28Road number one, he just has tariffs on international trade, on all his international partners.
00:34It's going to be pretty messy.
00:35It's going to be pretty messy for the partners, but it's going to be pretty messy for the
00:39US too, because more tariffs equals more inflation, higher prices for US consumers.
00:45And this is what he's been promising, exactly the opposite of what he's been promising US
00:50consumers, lowering prices.
00:52But there is another avenue, is that he sits down with partners and they try to strike
00:57a deal.
00:58Let's take the European Union.
00:59He exports to the EU quite a lot of services.
01:04The EU exports quite a lot of manufacturers to the US.
01:08It's pretty kiff-kiff.
01:09Can they do a little bit better?
01:10Maybe they can find a way to negotiate.
01:13Hitting each other on the head with tariffs will be a lose-lose game.
01:18What we are looking for is a win-win outcome.
01:22Someone who talks a lot about win-win is President Xi of China.
01:25What do you think Donald Trump's presidency is going to mean for the relationship between
01:29the US and China?
01:30Well, it remains to be seen.
01:33We don't know.
01:34You know, again, there are two roads.
01:36Road number one is he tries to find a space where he negotiates with China.
01:43We all know that the relationship is antagonistic, that they have difficulties in their relationship,
01:51both sides.
01:52The US has difficulty with China and China with the US.
01:54We all know that.
01:56So if there is a way to negotiate the differences, try to see if there is a space where they
01:59can agree to positive outcomes for both.
02:03Or they take the opposite route, which is hitting each other on the head.
02:07Again, given the importance that the two have for international trade, for the stability
02:13of the international financial system, you know, the route of trying to find a way to
02:21agree to disagree would be probably preferable.
02:24I wonder then what the best case and the worst scenario is going to be then for the
02:27European Union.
02:28You've got titans of industry like the boss of Siemens saying that companies like theirs
02:33are tariff proof.
02:35Well, look, the EU-US trade relationship is the most consequential in the world.
02:44This is the big artery of international trade in the world.
02:50When you choke that artery, you are shooting yourself in the foot.
02:55So I think it's important to make sure that if there is a disagreement, sit down and negotiate.
03:01If not, it's going to be ugly because it's going to be an eye for an eye and both will
03:06be blind.
03:07And just quickly, Arantxa, what about geopolitics, geoeconomics, do we expect Trump to say anything
03:13on Ukraine, on Gaza?
03:16I think he's been prudent on Ukraine and I think it is for a good reason because whatever
03:22he says on Ukraine will be read not only by American allies around the world, but it will
03:28be read also by adversaries of the U.S. around the world.
03:31It would be read by China.
03:32It would be read by Russia.
03:34It will be read by Iran, by North Korea.
03:36So I think he's been trading carefully and I think it's the right thing to do.
03:40As to Gaza, I hope that everyone works to make sure this peace agreement holds.
03:47It's the best outcome we can hope for a region that has suffered enormously in this last
03:54month.
03:55Arantxa Gonzalez, always a pleasure talking to you.
03:57Thank you very much.
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