What lies ahead for China–US relations under President Trump?

CGTN Europe interviewed Einar Tangen, Senior Fellow at the Taihe Institute

Transcript

00:00Ina Tangen is a senior fellow at the Taihe Institute and he says that Beijing is cautiously optimistic about the new Trump administration.

00:09It's a phone call, different readouts of course. Trump was pushing his agenda, Xi Jinping was talking about peace and cooperation and Taiwan.

00:20But everyone's waiting for his 200 executive orders, some are proclamations, some are policy.

00:26And although we know the different areas he's going to concentrate, we do not know the specifics of what he's going to sign.

00:33You mentioned the cautious optimism with the government there in Beijing.

00:38What is the expectation for tariffs? China clearly in the sights for increased tariffs along with Canada and Mexico.

00:46How is Beijing positioned to retaliate, to respond to tariffs if they are raised?

00:53Well, I mean, Beijing's position has been to a measured response.

00:58They do not want to escalate, but they are not going to just stand still and take it on the chin.

01:02So, I mean, you can expect that to continue.

01:05There's some sense that Donald Trump has been told that if he puts 60 percent tariffs on Chinese goods,

01:12the effect on the American consumer, who already feels hard pressed, would be quite traumatic.

01:19So he's probably going to put a lesser amount on and then promise that he'll raise it unless he gets what he wants.

01:25It might be a phase two of, you know, China buying more stuff from the United States.

01:32But I think he's going to kind of position is I'm giving Xi Jinping a gift because I'm not putting 60 percent on.

01:40I'm doing something less.

01:42The new secretary of state, Marco Rubio, in his testament before the Senate,

01:46had seemed to indicate that he does not believe that there will be any kind of military or trade conflict between China and the United States,

01:55that there isn't any appetite for that on either side.

01:59How do you assess the incoming foreign policy stance of the Trump administration?

02:06Well, I think you have to look at his entire team.

02:09I mean, they're mostly very photogenic, not necessarily qualified.

02:13And they seem more like the cast of the fifth episode or I should say fifth season of The Apprentice Washington, all fairly much expendable.

02:25The reason China is cautiously optimistic is because he's transactional.

02:29They believe that at least he's not going to push a war that, you know,

02:34if you give them enough money or you can find some way of dealing with them that you can arrive at something.

02:39So that is better than Biden, who was very difficult to talk to in the sense that he was very ideological.

02:46He believed in American exceptionalism and he was prepared to, as he said five times, go to the defense of Taiwan.

02:54And they were pushing that more arms and things like this.

02:58So this is why China is cautiously optimistic.

03:01They have an open hand towards the United States and they're hoping that they can kind of weather the storm.

03:06Like I said, this is not 2016. China is in a completely different position.

03:10But the expectation is that Trump will stick to his old game plan.