'Madman Principle': why is Trump interested in Panama, Greenland, and Canada?

Australian Community Media

US President Donald Trump might be looking to employ the 'madman theory' of global politics in his diplomatic dealings.

Transcript

00:00Why does Donald Trump seem to be so interested in Greenland and Panama all of a sudden?

00:16Trump insinuated he would use military force to seize control of Greenland and the Panama Canal.

00:22Controlling Greenland would be of strategic consequence because it's a port in a strategic shipping route

00:27and it has reserves of valuable minerals including cobalt, lithium and nickel.

00:32But Trump claims America needs a presence in Greenland as a matter of national security

00:38and that it would be a benefit to Greenland to have America control it

00:41since China and Russia have navy operations stationed there.

00:45People really don't even know if Denmark has any legal right to it.

00:50But if they do, they should give it up because we need it for national security.

00:54That's for the free world. I'm talking about protecting the free world.

00:57As for the Panama Canal, Trump claims China is basically controlling it

01:01even though Panama's president has rejected that claim.

01:04The Panama Canal is vital to our country. It's being operated by China.

01:10China! And we gave the Panama Canal to Panama, we didn't give it to China.

01:15That is a manifestation of gross ignorance of history.

01:20The Canal will celebrate 25 years under Panamanian hands, under Panamanian administration, on December 31st.

01:27And then in a truly unexpected turn of events, Trump claimed he'd use economic coercion

01:32to turn Canada into the 51st state of America.

01:35And I know that as a successful negotiator he likes to keep people a little off balance.

01:41The 51st state, that's not going to happen. It's just a non-starter.

01:45Canadians are incredibly proud of being Canadian.

01:48And it also seems Trump might like to rename the Gulf of Mexico.

01:52He thinks the Gulf of America has a better ring to it.

01:55In response, the Mexican president proposed that the whole of North America should be renamed Mexican America.

02:02But why don't we call the United States...

02:05America Mexicana.

02:06Mexican America. It sounds nice, doesn't it?

02:09¿Verdad que sí?

02:10So what's going on here?

02:12If his previous term in the White House was anything to go by,

02:15it's notoriously hard to predict the actions of Donald Trump.

02:19I use the word unpredictable. You want to be unpredictable.

02:22And I want to be unpredictable.

02:23I want to be unpredictable. I'm not going to tell you...

02:25Reigning theory is that Trump might be looking to employ the Madman principle of politics.

02:31This is a tactic of global diplomacy coined by Richard Nixon,

02:35wherein a leader acts as if he is willing to do anything,

02:38no matter how mad or damaging it may appear on the surface.

02:42By being so unpredictable, that leader ends up having a better chance of negotiating what he actually wants.

02:48When utilized well, the theory posits that other world leaders recognize their behavior as volatile

02:53and are more likely to attempt an appeasement.

02:56And so it can be a very effective form of deterrence.

02:59Threats of force can convince others to refrain from initiating or continuing actions

03:04that could escalate the volatility of a world leader.

03:08There are some political theorists, including Jonathan Stevens in the New York Times

03:12and international relations academic Roseanne McManus of the University of Wisconsin-Madison,

03:17say Trump's employment of the Madman principle may not be as effective as he thinks.

03:23Mainly because he has stated, even as recently as the 2024 presidential election,

03:28that he would use feigned madness in his policies.

03:32He said a military confrontation over Taiwan would not be necessary,

03:36as he, quote, respects him and knows he is crazy.

03:40Referring to himself as acting mad may have been counterproductive,

03:44because the Madman principle can really only work if a world leader can truly convince the world

03:49that their madness is genuine.

03:51Politics, after all, is a game of bluff.

03:55Never let them know your next move.

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