Analyzing Player Prop Bets in Notre Dame vs. Penn State

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00:00All right, let's look at some props here with Drew Aller.

00:02We'll start with the Penn State quarterback, Riley Lennar.

00:04Generally speaking, you know, hard to gauge on props with him.

00:07The guy doesn't throw for 150 yards a game,

00:09but Aller usually does his pass prop 183 and a half.

00:13His passing touchdowns, if he goes over one

00:15and a half touchdowns, Bill, they're plus 148 there,

00:18but we know that Penn State likes to run the ball as well.

00:20A lot of their touchdowns are coming from that,

00:22and then an interception basically.

00:23Minus 120 on the yes, minus 106 on the no.

00:27I think for Penn State to win, if Aller throws for 250 yards,

00:31Bill, I don't know that that's the recipe

00:33to win this game tonight.

00:34Don't they need those two running backs to really shine?

00:37I think they would prefer to have him around 200 yards.

00:40This is a really tight over-under.

00:42Because against good teams, Drew Aller

00:45has struggled a little bit.

00:46Their 0 and 4 against Michigan, Ohio State, Oregon

00:50the last two years, his completion percentage

00:52in those games is around 49%.

00:55But there's a little bit of an all or nothing passing attack.

00:58I think on third and short and third medium,

01:00he's looking for Tyler Warren.

01:01He'll take a few deep shots with Omari Evans.

01:03They got him going in the last game.

01:05And he will.

01:06They're going to take a couple shots.

01:08They can't just run the football.

01:10So I would be surprised if he got too far over 200,

01:15but they are going to take their shots.

01:16And I'm still tempted to take the over on this prop.

01:19All right, fair enough.

01:20Now let's take a look at any time touchdowns.

01:23I don't know how many targets Tyler Warren is going

01:25to get tonight.

01:26But my gosh, I don't know, Bill, that I've

01:27seen anybody more targeted in terms of the quarterback

01:31to receiver or tight end than this guy.

01:32So naturally, you've got to make him minus 110 to score tonight.

01:35Because any time they're near the red zone,

01:37they throw him the ball.

01:38Riley Leonard, minus 110.

01:40Love, minus 110.

01:41And then some plus money on Allen,

01:43the other running back at PSU, Nicholas Singleton,

01:46Jadarian Price, and Aeneas Williams of Notre Dame.

01:51I mean, you just can't stop Warren, right?

01:53Like, that's pretty much the deal.

01:54Like, I know sometimes he's wide open.

01:56But even with two guys near him in the end zone,

01:58he just jumps up and catches the ball.

02:00Yeah, his catch percentage on passes

02:02of between 1 and 10 yards, which is where I think he'll

02:05get looked at a lot tonight, is 75%.

02:08I mean, who wouldn't attack that matchup when you have it?

02:10The one prop I like is Riley Leonard.

02:13If Notre Dame gets the ball inside the five yard line,

02:15I think he's going to run the football.

02:17So I can see him getting a short yardage touchdown

02:19in this game as well.

02:21So it comes down to a 23-20 type game for me.

02:25The kickers, if there's props on the kickers out there,

02:27I think they'll kick a couple field goals in this game.

02:29And I won't be surprised if this game ends on a field goal.

02:33An ugly game that ends on a field goal.

02:35And like you said, I'm going to take the Irish.

02:38I may regret it later, but it just feels

02:41like the right pick right now.

02:43Yeah, yesterday, Notre Dame's kicker shows up

02:46at my son's school kicking field goals there

02:49at the football field yesterday.

02:51That was fun to see.

02:52All right, a very close by to me.

02:54Jeremiah Love yesterday.

02:56I think that he was the one player that I was looking at

02:59as far as how many yards he could get in this game.

03:02Because again, we saw a couple of games ago,

03:03we busted open one.

03:05But the deal is, is to get 80 plus yards, Bill,

03:09this is what I was looking at as some potential, plus 390.

03:12I mean, I can't predict any running back

03:14in college football's ever going to have a hundred yard game

03:16like to predict that.

03:18But it seems to me that this is a nice recipe

03:21and some potential big money that can be made.

03:24I mean, 81 yards, not unreasonable if I look back

03:26at all the data from this guy over the course of the season.

03:29Yeah, 60, I like the 60.

03:32I would play a little safer because he'll probably get

03:35between 10 to 12 carries.

03:37He's been battling that knee injury.

03:38To your point, if you want to take a swing,

03:40he is a big play running back.

03:42And you know, when you average six and seven yards per carry

03:45at the 98 yard run against Indiana,

03:47it only takes one lightning strike.

03:49And in a game like this, I think there'll be a couple

03:51between him and Katron Allen and Nick Singleton.

03:54Somebody will bust off a big run

03:56and somebody will have a big touchdown run in this game.

03:58That's not a bad bet.

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