00:00Today on Forbes, under Trump tariffs,
00:03made-in-Vietnam will be the new made-in-China.
00:08President-elect Donald Trump says his plan to impose heavy tariffs
00:12on goods imported to the U.S. will shrink the federal deficit,
00:15lower food prices, and create more jobs at home.
00:19On the campaign trail in Savannah, Georgia,
00:21he vowed to, quote,
00:23relocate entire industries to the U.S.
00:26In September, he said, quote,
00:28You will see a mass exodus of manufacturing
00:31from China to Pennsylvania, from Korea to North Carolina,
00:34from Germany to right here in Georgia.
00:38However, such reshoring is unlikely to happen,
00:41certainly not at the scale and speed that Trump wants, if ever.
00:46Instead, expect to see one country
00:48as a major beneficiary of Trump's policies, Vietnam.
00:53Jason Miller, a professor of supply chain management
00:56at Michigan State University, told Forbes, quote,
00:59If previously it was made in China,
01:02now it's going to be made in Vietnam.
01:04That production is not coming back to America.
01:08During the previous Trump administration,
01:10major foreign corporations, including Apple, Foxconn,
01:14and Intel, started pivoting to Vietnam
01:17as a way to diversify their manufacturing portfolio.
01:20Just two months ago,
01:21SpaceX announced a $1.5 billion investment in Vietnam, too.
01:26Even the Trump Organization is investing in the country,
01:29with a recently trumpeted $1.5 billion
01:32luxury real estate deal.
01:34And now, the Southeast Asian nation is well-positioned
01:38to benefit even more from the anticipated
01:40anti-China sentiment of the forthcoming administration,
01:43especially if it moves quickly to streamline regulation
01:46so that businesses can move in quickly.
01:50Vietnam has a number of advantages
01:52over other regional rivals like India.
01:55First, as a single-party authoritarian state,
01:57Vietnam can and does set new business-friendly policy quickly.
02:02Additionally, the country is geographically well-positioned.
02:05It already has three of the world's top 50 busiest ports,
02:09and is next door to China,
02:11making trade and logistics between the two countries easier.
02:15Critically, Vietnam also has a free trade agreement
02:17with the European Union,
02:19the only other regional country besides Singapore to have one.
02:23India is currently negotiating such a deal,
02:25which would smooth imports and exports
02:27between the EU and the world's most populous country.
02:31Vietnam is also moving quickly to improve the infrastructure
02:34needed to support large projects,
02:36like the country's new decree earlier this year
02:38that allows companies to buy green energy
02:40from solar power producers,
02:42rather than go through the traditional state power utility.
02:46The move, which makes it easier for companies
02:48to meet their climate targets,
02:50was applauded by Apple,
02:51Samsung, the country's largest foreign investor,
02:54and the United States Embassy in Hanoi.
02:58Trump has repeatedly said in recent months
03:00that he wants to promote American manufacturing
03:02and make foreign-made goods more expensive to import.
03:05He singled out Mexico, as well as China,
03:08saying earlier this month
03:09that he would implement tariffs of between 25% and 100%
03:14on products made south of the border.
03:16Previously, he said that goods made in China
03:18should be hit with a 60% tariff,
03:21while anything manufactured abroad
03:23should have a blanket 20% tariff, including Vietnam.
03:27But the country clearly sees an opportunity for growth.
03:31Anh Nhiap Tron,
03:32a professor of governance at Indiana University
03:35and a former advisor to the Vietnamese prime minister,
03:38told Forbes, quote,
03:39Vietnam could be mildly successful
03:41or it could be hugely successful,
03:43depending on how it facilitates
03:45this foreign direct investment wave.
03:48Tron said he is currently preparing a memo for Hanoi
03:51about how his home country can capitalize
03:53on these strict new trade rules,
03:55as Vietnam bets that a huge influx of foreign capital
03:58will help transform it
04:00into a developed, high-income country by 2045.
04:04At the top of Tron's list
04:05is targeting multinational corporations
04:07that will bring their own ecosystem of suppliers
04:10and focusing on higher-value goods.
04:13He said, quote,
04:14Vietnam should prioritize companies
04:16that will bring other companies to Vietnam.
04:18If you bring Apple,
04:19there are a lot of other suppliers
04:21that want to be close to Apple,
04:22companies that allow Vietnam
04:24to move into a more high-tech sector.
04:26Instead of doing footwear and textiles,
04:28Vietnam should aim for biotechnology
04:30and AI and semiconductors.
04:34For full coverage,
04:35check out Cyrus Farivar's piece on Forbes.com.
04:40This is Kieran Meadows from Forbes.
04:42Thanks for tuning in.
Comments