00:00These are the figures at the moment, with two states still in doubt.
00:06Donald Trump has 295 electoral college votes, Kamala Harris just 226.
00:12Let's talk about the states that have flipped.
00:14The state of Georgia, which Joe Biden won on a very narrow margin four years ago, has
00:18gone red.
00:20And these three states, now they used to often be referred to as the blue wall, they were
00:24reliably voting for Democrats, they were a firewall that helped support Democratic candidates
00:30for President.
00:31Donald Trump has won them in this election, all three of them.
00:34He knocked down the blue wall in 2016, Joe Biden managed to rebuild it in 2020, and he's
00:40run a bulldozer through those three states once again, and we're seeing swings toward
00:45the Republicans.
00:47And there are, as we're saying, two states still in doubt.
00:49One of them is Arizona, where Donald Trump leads, the other one is Nevada, where Donald
00:53Trump also leads by about five percentage points, and Kamala Harris is in a bit of trouble
00:58there as well, because the results in Nevada often are really driven by what happens in
01:04Clark County, the single biggest county.
01:06Kamala Harris is winning there by about a percentage point, but the problem for her
01:10is that Joe Biden won that by nine points, more than nine points.
01:14This is a county Democrats have to run up the score in, run up the margin in quite significantly
01:20to offset the losses elsewhere.
01:22So there's a battle ahead for Kamala Harris if she wants to have any hope of claiming
01:27either of these states.
01:28At the moment, they are both trending Donald Trump's way, and that means Donald Trump has
01:33a viable path toward 312 Electoral College votes.
01:40We've seen swings in those battleground states, we've seen swings everywhere, Gemma, and some
01:44of the biggest swings are in some of the safer states.
01:47We are watching an election where young people have swung toward the Republicans, communities
01:53of colour, black people, black men in particular, and Hispanic communities are swinging toward
01:58the Republicans.
01:59And it raises some really deep questions for the Democratic Party, who has relied on some
02:05of those coalitions to get them into power over a very long period of time, and it shows
02:11some great opportunities for the Republican Party and for Donald Trump, who has managed
02:15to make significant inroads in those communities, because some of the swings we're seeing in
02:20some of, you know, blue states, blue states like New York, Kamala Harris is winning by
02:25nearly 12 points, she will win that state, there's no question there, but Joe Biden won
02:30it by more than 20 points.
02:32We're seeing big swings in big blue states that are painting a picture of alignment in
02:38politics, a realignment of coalitions and groups that the Democrats used to be able
02:43to rely on, well, not quite so much anymore.
02:46Casey, where is the popular vote at at the moment?
02:51Because of states like California and New York and Florida swinging toward Donald Trump
02:55as well, this is where the popular vote is at the moment.
02:57It is not final, it's going to take a bit of time, days or longer for us to know the
03:01final results here, but Donald Trump has 5 million more votes nationally at the moment
03:06than Donald Trump, that is 3.4% or so ahead.
03:10And that gap, it may well close a bit as states like California continue to count,
03:14but Donald Trump is very well placed at this point to win the national popular vote.
03:20If he does so, which we think he's well placed to do, if he does that he'll be the first
03:24Republican since 2004, in two decades, to win a national popular vote at a presidential
03:31election.
03:32George W Bush was the last one to do it in 2004, the first time he won office he didn't
03:36win the national popular vote, and of course when Donald Trump won in 2016, Hillary Clinton
03:41beat him on the national vote by 3 million.
03:44One of the reasons that that's possible is because of those big states, they've swung
03:47more toward Donald Trump than other states, there are less inefficient, wasted votes from
03:53Democrats running up the score in states that the Democrats are already winning.
03:57But the problem for the Kamala Harris campaign is the bigger swings in the blue states have
04:02not been able to be offset in all by the swing states, and she hasn't been able to hold
04:06on to the votes where it matters.
04:08Casey, you did touch on this a moment ago, but can you tell us the demographics that
04:12did come through for Donald Trump?
04:14Yeah, you can see that when you look at the results, and when you look at exit polling
04:17there are three real standouts, young people, Hispanic communities, and if you want to look
04:21at the figures in Florida that's a great example of that, Donald Trump is 13 points ahead with
04:26nearly all the vote counted, he won it by 3 points, so a 10 point shift in four years.
04:32And then the county I'll draw your attention to is Miami-Dade, where Donald Trump has won
04:37that by nearly 12 percentage points, let's draw a circle around that, that is the city
04:42of Miami, Miami Beach, and areas near there, quite a big county, remember Donald Trump
04:49won by nearly 12 points four years ago, Joe Biden won it by 7, a massive swing in that
04:56community and this is a community with a lot of Hispanic voters in it, he's also won,
05:03Trump this time has also won Osceola County, where a very high proportion of Puerto Ricans
05:10live, so that's one big trend we're seeing, and then let's go back to New York and just
05:14show you the Bronx, this is the Bronx, young, racially diverse community, Kamala Harris
05:20not surprisingly is well ahead by 45 points, Joe Biden won it by 67, a very big shift in
05:27just one election toward the Republicans there, young men, young black men especially have
05:34seen some of the biggest swings toward Donald Trump in this election.
