Dr. Ian Lesser vom German Marshall Fund erklärt, dass nach den Versuchen, die Wahlergebnisse für 2020 zu kippen, alle besonders wachsam sind. Und obwohl die Risiken in dieser Hinsicht gestiegen sind, „schauen alle zu“, sagt er im Gespräch mit Europe Conversation.
00:00In just a few short days we'll know the results of the US election and the likely implications for the EU and Ukraine.
00:15On the Europe Conversation I catch up with Ian Lesser of the German Marshall Fund, who says no matter who wins, America will remain deeply polarised.
00:25So Ian, welcome to the Europe Conversation here on Euronews.
00:30Look, why don't we start with a little prediction, because this time last week we'll know how America voted, more or less, but we may not have a clear idea of who's going to be the next president.
00:42You may still not know, because it's so close that it could easily be contested in various states, there may have to be recounts, we'll have to see.
00:51The polls all seem to say the same thing, which is that the country is very evenly split and it comes down to a few states and a few people in a few states and whether they come out to vote or not.
01:01I mean, are there indications that we could see a repeat of what happened the last time, where in Georgia, for example, Donald Trump demanded he get 11,800 votes, because that's the amount he needed to win the state,
01:16that you might have some sort of interference and then disinformation about stolen ballots and so on?
01:24Well, I mean, there's always a risk of this and, of course, the concern about this has been growing over the last years.
01:29On the other hand, everyone is watching.
01:32It's not as if there's a lack of transparency and the systems, in fact, are very strong, but they're also very legalistic and there could be many legal challenges, even legitimate legal challenges, if it's very close.
01:44So, you know, it's quite conceivable that even a few days afterwards, you really won't know who won.
01:49Okay. So, look, let's look at it from an EU-US perspective.
01:52What are the issues that the EU need to be concerned about, regardless of who's president?
01:59Well, I think, above all, Europe wants predictability from Washington, predictability on trade, predictability on security, predictability on regulation, all the sorts of things that European stakeholders and governments care about.
02:12And, of course, that's not always in large supply with any administration.
02:18But, of course, there was an experience with former President Trump, and that was a very unpredictable experience for Europe.
02:25He said a lot about tariffs.
02:27He said a lot about putting increasing pressure on NATO in particular, maybe not supporting Ukraine in the way that we've seen in the last years.
02:37All these things would pose huge limits for Europe if he does what he says, if he wins.
02:41So, tell me what you think could happen.
02:43For example, what he did say is, I mean, he's a big fan of tariffs.
02:46Now, the Biden administration didn't remove all those tariffs and then had the Inflation Reduction Act as well.
02:52So, that was a bit of a concern.
02:54But he's talking about imposing 200 percent tariffs when it comes to China on imported goods.
02:59I mean, it's something much more dramatic than before.
03:01Right. It's a different world.
03:03It's true that there is this rising sort of tide of economic nationalism, not just in the United States, actually globally.
03:10Where governments are reaching for tariffs as a solution or own domestic investments, industrial policy.
03:18All this thing that leads us into greater competition across the Atlantic.
03:22But obviously what Donald Trump has been talking about takes us into different territory if he does what he says.
03:28This would be a tremendous structural change in economies.
03:34Also how money is raised in the United States.
03:36He's even talking possibly about using tariffs instead of income taxes to raise federal revenue.
03:41I mean, this hasn't happened since the 19th century.
03:44Yeah. How would it impact Europe, let's say, the tariffs?
03:48Let's have a look and see from a trade point of view what would happen to the European Union.
03:52Well, the United States and Europe are the largest economic partners in the world in trade and investment.
03:57And Europe is highly dependent on trade.
04:00The United States somewhat less so.
04:02But it's hugely meaningful to both countries.
04:04We're the biggest economic partners for each other, respectively.
04:07And so anything that disturbs that, that makes it harder to do these transactions across the Atlantic,
04:16is going to be a negative thing in terms of economic growth.
04:20But also in terms of costs to consumers.
04:22All sorts of things that people depend on on both sides of the Atlantic.
04:27And when you look at, let's say, the Draghi report and talking about how Europe is already sort of flailing
04:32and, you know, could potentially die, using the language of President Macron,
04:36that obviously exacerbates the situation.
04:39It does exacerbate the situation.
04:41It's one thing to have the challenges that Mario Draghi talks about in his report,
04:45or the IMF has said similar things recently, when things are going well,
04:49when economies around the world are growing.
04:52But that's not necessarily going to be the case under these conditions.
04:56Many economists say that if tariffs of this kind become the norm,
05:00not just in the United States, but elsewhere,
05:02that it would really suppress global growth in a way that would make all of those challenges much, much more dramatic.
05:07Well, look, let's look at security, because we see Ukraine is still struggling.
05:12The victory plan of Volodymyr Zelensky maybe hasn't had the traction that he would have liked.
05:20Member states, NATO, are still considering what he would like,
05:23and I think a lot of them are waiting to see what happens after this election.
05:27But Trump is saying that he could end the war in 24 hours.
05:30I mean, what would that look like?
05:32What kind of concessions would be imposed on Ukraine in a situation like that?
05:35Well, I think he has in mind that he would be able to send, well, two messages.
05:41One to President Zelensky, that either you go to the bargaining table or we stop the assistance.
05:48And similarly, he could go to President Putin and say,
05:52either you come to the bargaining table or we redouble our assistance to Ukraine.
05:56Whether any of this is realistic, it's very hard to say.
06:00Obviously, for Russia and for Ukraine, this is existential in different ways.
06:05For Russia, it's all about regime survival.
06:08For Ukraine, it's all about its sovereignty.
06:10Will they be inclined to compromise simply because Washington oppresses that?
06:16Perhaps not.
06:17But, I mean, what would you even be more inclined to think that Trump might do,
06:20given his lauding of President Trump over the past few years?
06:25Well, I think he doesn't know where it ends.
06:28And, you know, it is true that I think right across the political spectrum in the United States and in Europe,
06:34people are beginning to ask tougher questions, obviously, about what is the endgame here.
06:38What is this peace plan?
06:40Yes, sure, for Ukraine to recover its territory and sovereignty fully.
06:44For an open door to NATO.
06:47For membership in NATO?
06:49Sure, but when? How?
06:51Is that conceivable in the near term?
06:53Probably not.
06:54So how does this stop, if not end?
06:58And for NATO, that's another issue, because, you know,
07:01Trump has questioned his commitment to Article 5, for example,
07:05particularly of NATO allies who aren't paying at least 2% of GDP.
07:09I mean, NATO is nothing without the US and Article 5.
07:14Well, it's true.
07:16NATO can do many things.
07:18But in the current conditions with the war in Europe
07:21and this very severe problem of deterring Russia
07:25and other risks that exist out there,
07:28the US capability is still absolutely essential.
07:30I mean, yes, maybe years from now,
07:32Europe, with a lot of investment, would be able to do much more.
07:35And there are also things that could happen in Asia
07:38that would draw the United States away,
07:40regardless of any kind of political decision-making about NATO in Washington.
07:44So there are plenty of things that Europe would want to reinsure itself against
07:48by building up its own defences, but it's the work of many years to do that.
07:52And there is a very real risk,
07:54since former President Trump has a known attitude about NATO,
07:58that this debate is going to get much, much tougher.
08:02The problem, not just the debate, but the strategic problem,
08:05will get much, much tougher.
08:07That said, I don't think he's going to pull the United States out of NATO.
08:11There's still a lot of support for NATO in the public, on Capitol Hill.
08:16And at the end of the day, it's in American interest.
08:19But he could make life inside NATO very difficult indeed.
08:21Yes, that's the point, isn't it?
08:23It's not that he would take America out,
08:25but that within NATO he would block a lot.
08:27And we've seen the language of Trump-proofing over the past few months at NATO
08:32about institutionalising Ukraine and support for Ukraine within NATO.
08:36Do you think that enough has been done there?
08:39Well, an awful lot would have to be done.
08:42Of course, in NATO everything is done by consensus.
08:44But absolutely everything, from the smallest thing to the most existential things,
08:48all done by consensus.
08:50So what the US thinks and does really matters, just as others.
08:54And if the US is not supportive of seeing NATO as a vehicle for doing this,
08:59it's going to make a huge, huge difference.
09:02What difference do you think a Kamala Harris presidency and a Trump presidency
09:05will have on member states within the European Union?
09:08Because you've seen Hungary, for example,
09:10hold back and block movement on the European peace facility,
09:14block initially but having failed to block the access of the 50 billion euros from the G7.
09:21What impact would that have on member states and unanimity and so on there?
09:28You know, I think there would be a fundamental change in the American attitude
09:32towards the European Union if President Trump comes to the White House again.
09:37Less so with President Harris, if she were to be president, Vice President Harris.
09:43I think it's important to consider what the Biden administration has done
09:47and how the Biden administration has seen Europe.
09:50The Biden administration has been really almost uniquely interested
09:53in seeing the European Union itself as an institution, as an interlocutor,
09:57on lots of things where we don't necessarily have to.
10:00Okay, on trade you have to do it, but you don't have to do it on a lot of other things.
10:03And they have been inclined to see the EU, to take it seriously, to see them as a key player.
10:09That wasn't always true in the past with Democratic or Republican administrations, different kinds.
10:15It certainly wouldn't be true in another Trump administration.
10:19Harris, there would be a degree of continuity.
10:22In what way?
10:23Well, clearly there are some, Victor Horvath makes no secret about this,
10:27who would prefer to see a Trump presidency.
10:30Many would not, but in any case, Europe has to deal with what it gets.
10:35I mean, the personality thing is very interesting because a lot of the people
10:39who worked with Donald Trump in the White House have come out and said that he's not fit for office,
10:44including former Chief of Staff John Kelly, who said that he would implement fascism
10:49and read out the dictionary description of what fascism is and said this is Donald Trump.
10:56I mean, how do you respond to something like that?
11:01I understand why people are troubled by this.
11:04I mean, it is troubling to talk in those terms, I think.
11:08We have another problem, of course, which is that the governance in the United States
11:13has proved extremely dysfunctional in recent years.
11:15It's not just that the country is highly polarized.
11:19In the Senate, in Congress, it's very difficult to get people confirmed, for example.
11:24That's one of the reasons why Trump is talking in terms of having more, in a sense, political appointees
11:31and shrinking the civil service and having more accountable political appointees.
11:36We already have that system, actually, but it's not as sweeping as he's proposing
11:41and it doesn't have the kind of tough measures that he's talking about, obviously.
11:45It would be very different. It's really uncharted territory for the United States.
11:48Okay. Dr. Ian Lesser, Distinguished Fellow at the German Marshall Fund,
11:51thank you very much for joining us on The Europe Conversation.
Schreibe den ersten Kommentar