00:00In just a few short days, we'll know the results of the U.S. election and the likely implications
00:13for the EU and Ukraine.
00:15On The Europe Conversation, I catch up with Ian Lesser of the German Marshall Fund who
00:19says no matter who wins, America will remain deeply polarized.
00:26So Ian, welcome to The Europe Conversation here on Euronews.
00:30Look, why don't we start with a little prediction, because this time last week we'll know how
00:35America voted more or less, but we may not have a clear idea of who's going to be the
00:40next president.
00:43You may still not know, because it's so close that it could easily be contested in various
00:47states.
00:48There may have to be recounts.
00:49We'll have to see.
00:51The polls all seem to say the same thing, which is that the country is very evenly split.
00:56It comes down to a few states and a few people in a few states and whether they come out
01:00to vote or not.
01:01I mean, are there indications that we could see a repeat of what happened the last time
01:07where in Georgia, for example, Donald Trump demanded he get 11,800 votes, because that's
01:13the amount he needed to win the state, that you might have some sort of interference and
01:19then disinformation about stolen ballots and so on?
01:25Well, I mean, there's always a risk of this, and, of course, the concern about this has
01:28been growing over the last years.
01:29On the other hand, everyone is watching.
01:32It's not as if there's a lack of transparency, and the systems, in fact, are very strong,
01:37but they're also very legalistic, and there could be many legal challenges, even legitimate
01:41legal challenges if it's very close.
01:44So it's quite conceivable that even a few days afterwards you really won't know who
01:48won.
01:49OK, so look, let's look at it from an EU-US perspective.
01:53What are the issues that the EU need to be concerned about, regardless of who's president?
01:58Well, I think above all, Europe wants predictability from Washington, predictability on trade,
02:06predictability on security, predictability on regulation, all the sorts of things that
02:09European stakeholders and governments care about.
02:13And of course, that's not always in large supply with any administration.
02:18But of course, there was an experience with former President Trump, and that was a very
02:23unpredictable experience for Europe.
02:25He said a lot about tariffs.
02:27He said a lot about putting increasing pressure on NATO in particular, maybe not supporting
02:34Ukraine in the way that we've seen in the last years.
02:37All these things would pose huge limits for Europe if he does what he says, if he wins.
02:41So what kind of – tell me what you think could happen.
02:44For example, what he did say is, I mean, he's a big fan of tariffs.
02:46Now, the Biden administration didn't remove all those tariffs and then had the Inflation
02:51Reduction Act as well.
02:53So that was a bit of a concern.
02:54But he's talking about imposing 200 per cent tariffs when it comes to China on imported
02:59goods.
03:00I mean, it's something much more dramatic than we saw before.
03:02Right.
03:03It's a different world.
03:04It's true that there is this rising sort of tide of economic nationalism, not just in
03:08the United States, actually, globally, where governments are reaching for tariffs as a
03:14solution or own domestic investments, industrial policy, all this thing that leads us into
03:20greater competition across the Atlantic.
03:23But obviously what Donald Trump has been talking about takes us into different territory if
03:27he does what he says.
03:30This would be a tremendous structural change in economies.
03:33Also, how money is raised in the United States is even talking possibly about using tariffs
03:38instead of income taxes to raise federal revenue.
03:41I mean, this hasn't happened since the 19th century.
03:44Yeah.
03:45How would it impact Europe, let's say, the tariffs?
03:48Let's have a look and see from a trade point of view what would happen to the European
03:51Union.
03:52Well, the United States and Europe are the largest economic partners in the world in
03:56trade and investment.
03:58And Europe is highly dependent on trade.
04:00The United States somewhat less so.
04:02But it's hugely meaningful to both countries.
04:04We're the biggest economic partners for each other, respectively.
04:07And so anything that disturbs that, that makes it harder to do these transactions across
04:15the Atlantic is going to be a negative thing in terms of economic growth, but also in terms
04:20of costs to consumers, all sorts of things that people depend on on both sides of the
04:25Atlantic.
04:26And when you look at, let's say, the Draghi report and talking about how Europe is already
04:30sort of flailing and could potentially die, using the language of President Macron, that
04:36obviously exacerbates the situation.
04:39It does exacerbate the situation.
04:41It's one thing to have the challenges that Mario Draghi talks about in his report, or
04:45the IMF has said similar things recently, when things are going well, when economies
04:50around the world are growing.
04:52But that's not necessarily going to be the case under these conditions.
04:56Many economists say that if tariffs of this kind become the norm, not just in the United
05:00States but elsewhere, that it would really suppress global growth in a way that would
05:04make all of those challenges much, much more dramatic.
05:07Well, look, let's look at security, because we see Ukraine is still struggling.
05:13The victory plan of Volodymyr Zelensky maybe hasn't had the traction that he would have
05:18liked.
05:19Member states, NATO, are still considering what he would like, and I think a lot of them
05:24are waiting to see what happens after this election.
05:27But Trump is saying that he could end the war in 24 hours.
05:30I mean, what would that look like?
05:32What kind of concessions would be imposed on Ukraine in a situation like that?
05:36Well, I think he has in mind that he would be able to send, well, two messages, one to
05:42President Zelensky, that either you go to the bargaining table or we stop the assistance.
05:48And similarly, he could go to President Putin and say, either you come to the bargaining
05:53table or we redouble our assistance to Ukraine.
05:57Whether any of this is realistic, it's very hard to say.
06:01Obviously, for Russia and for Ukraine, this is existential in different ways.
06:06For Russia, it's all about regime survival.
06:08For Ukraine, it's all about its sovereignty.
06:11Will they be inclined to compromise simply because Washington presses that?
06:16Perhaps not.
06:17But, I mean, what would you even be more inclined to think that Trump might do, given his lauding
06:22of President Trump over the past few years?
06:25Well, I think he doesn't know where it ends.
06:28You know, it is true that I think right across the political spectrum in the United States
06:33and in Europe, people are beginning to ask tougher questions, obviously, about what is
06:36the endgame here?
06:38What is this peace plan?
06:39Yes, sure, for Ukraine to recover its territory and sovereignty fully, for an open door to
06:47NATO, for membership in NATO.
06:49Sure, but when, how?
06:51Is that conceivable in the near term?
06:53Probably not.
06:55So how does this stop, if not end?
06:58Even for NATO, that's another issue, because, you know, Trump has questioned his commitment
07:03to Article 5, for example, particularly of NATO allies who aren't paying at least 2%
07:08of GDP.
07:09I mean, NATO is nothing without the US and Article 5.
07:14Well, it's true.
07:16NATO can do many things, but in the current conditions with the war in Europe and this
07:21very severe problem of deterring Russia and other risks that exist out there, the US capability
07:28is still absolutely essential.
07:29I mean, yes, maybe years from now, Europe, with a lot of investment, would be able to
07:34do much more.
07:35And there are also things that could happen in Asia that would draw the United States
07:39away, regardless of any kind of political decision-making about NATO in Washington.
07:44So there are plenty of things that Europe would want to reinsure itself against by building
07:48up its own defenses, but it's the work of many years to do that.
07:52And there is a very real risk, since former President Trump has a known attitude about
07:57NATO, that this debate is going to get much, much tougher.
08:02The problem, not just the debate, but the strategic problem, will get much, much tougher.
08:07That said, I don't think he's going to pull the United States out of NATO.
08:10There's still a lot of support for NATO in the public, on Capitol Hill, and at the end
08:16of the day, it's in American interest, but he could make life inside NATO very difficult
08:20indeed.
08:21Yeah, that's the point, isn't it?
08:22It's not that he would take America out, but that within NATO, he would block a lot.
08:26And we've seen the language of Trump-proofing over the past few months at NATO, about institutionalizing
08:34Ukraine and support for Ukraine within NATO.
08:36Do you think that enough has been done there?
08:39Well, an awful lot would have to be done.
08:42Of course, in NATO, everything is done by consensus, but absolutely everything, from
08:45the smallest thing to the most existential things, all done by consensus.
08:49So what the U.S. thinks and does really matters, just as others.
08:54And if the U.S. is not supportive of seeing NATO as a vehicle for doing this, it's going
08:59to make a huge, huge difference.
09:02What difference do you think a Kamala Harris presidency and a Trump presidency will have
09:06on member states within the European Union?
09:08Because you've seen Hungary, for example, hold back and block movement on the European
09:13peace facility, block initially, but having failed, to block the access of the 50 billion
09:20euros from the G7.
09:23What impact would that have on member states and unanimity and so on there?
09:28You know, I think there would be a fundamental change in the American attitude towards the
09:33European Union if former President Trump comes to the White House again, less so with President
09:38Harris, if she were to be president, Vice President Harris.
09:43I think it's important to consider what the Biden administration has done and how the
09:48Biden administration has seen Europe.
09:50The Biden administration has been really almost uniquely interested in seeing the European
09:54Union itself as an institution, as an interlocutor, on lots of things where we don't necessarily
09:59have to.
10:00OK, on trade, you have to do it, but you don't have to do it on a lot of other things.
10:03And they have been inclined to see the EU, to take it seriously, to see them as a as
10:07a key player.
10:09That wasn't always true in the past with Democratic or Republican administrations, different kinds.
10:15It certainly wouldn't be true in another Trump administration.
10:19In Harris, there would be a degree of continuity.
10:21In what way?
10:23Well, clearly there are some, Victor Horvath makes no secret about this, who would prefer
10:27to see a Trump presidency.
10:31Many would not.
10:32But in any case, Europe has to deal with what it gets.
10:35I mean, the personality thing is very interesting because a lot of the people who worked with
10:39Donald Trump in the White House have come out and said that he's not fit for office,
10:44including former Chief of Staff John Kelly, who said that he would implement fascism and
10:49read out the dictionary description of what fascism is and said this is Donald Trump.
10:56I mean, how do you respond to something like that?
11:01Well, I understand why people are troubled by this.
11:03I mean, it is troubling to talk in those terms, I think.
11:08We have another problem, of course, which is that the governance in the United States
11:12has proved extremely dysfunctional in recent years.
11:15It's not just that the country is highly polarized.
11:19In the Senate, in Congress, it's very difficult to get people confirmed, for example.
11:24That's one of the reasons why Trump is talking in terms of having more, in a sense, political
11:29appointees and shrinking the civil service and having more accountable political appointees.
11:36We already have that system, actually.
11:38But it's not as sweeping as he's proposing, and it doesn't have the kind of tough measures
11:43that he's talking about, obviously.
11:45It would be very different.
11:46It's really uncharted territory for the United States.
11:48Okay.
11:49Dr. Ian Lesser, distinguished fellow with the German Marshall Fund, thank you very much
11:52for joining us on the Europe Conversation.
11:54Good to be with you.
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