The Biggest Historic Factor in Betting Comeback Player OTY in the NFL

BetMGM Network

Femi Abebefe has identified one key factor in the past 24 Comeback Player of the Year winners.

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00:00Joe Burrow and Kirk Cousins now both plus 325, co-favorites atop the market.

00:04J.K. Dobbins, who had a substandard game on Monday night on the road at the Arizona Cardinals.

00:09Dobbins plus 350.

00:11Aaron Rodgers now at plus 550, along with Tamar Hamlin.

00:14I'm like, I guess he can win.

00:16I would never bet him, just saying.

00:18And Nick Chubb, Nick Chubb's at nine to one here.

00:21I feel like you have a lot to say, so go ahead and say it.

00:23Yeah, Nick Chubb will start there because he was the big mover in the market.

00:28If you bet Nick Chubb at 50 to one, 30 to one, 40 to one, whatever, you have a great bet.

00:33I just don't know if it has the upside to win based on the team quality.

00:36Now, I don't think most people think about Comeback Player of the Year as a team award,

00:40but it kind of is.

00:40You need your team to be playing well to be a relevant part of the NFL discussion

00:45once we get into the month of December, which is when everyone starts to make up their minds

00:48on what they want to do with the rewards ballots.

00:51I was looking this up this morning.

00:52I'm always trying to figure out, what are the trends?

00:54What are things that have to take place for somebody to win an award?

00:57Do you know that we have not had a Comeback Player of the Year winner

01:00win that was not on a playoff team since 2003?

01:03That's the last time.

01:042003 was the last time somebody won this award and didn't make the playoffs.

01:08Now, ask yourself.

01:10It was the Cincinnati Bengals.

01:13I don't want to take up too much time here.

01:15I'm not going to know who it is off the top of my head.

01:17It's John Kitna.

01:18John Kitna won the award in 2003.

01:20The Bengals went eight and eight.

01:21So ask yourself, if you think Cleveland can make the playoffs, then go crazy.

01:26Bet Nick Chubb.

01:27But he, last week, had 22 yards and a touchdown.

01:30This week, he goes up against the Baltimore Ravens.

01:32They're an underdog in the market.

01:34There's a good chance they're trailing in the second half.

01:36You think this is going to be a big Nick Chubb game for him to rack up rushing yards?

01:40I don't think that's what it's going to be.

01:41Not to say it can't be that, but just be realistic about the situation.

01:44Do you think the Browns are going to have a lead in the fourth quarter going into that game?

01:47I don't think so.

01:48So if this team continues a downward spiral, they fall to one and seven,

01:52and they can't make the postseason.

01:54I don't think Nick Chubb has the upside to actually win this award,

01:57even though everybody loves him.

01:58I still think it's Kirk Cousins right now.

02:00Unless the Falcons have a complete collapse,

02:02but with Tampa's injuries at wide receiver,

02:04the Falcons, it's all out there.

02:06The red carpet has been laid out for them to win the NFC South.

02:08If they do that, Kirk Cousins, I think, wins comeback player of the year.

02:11I don't like everybody else that's being priced around him.

02:13I think that this is actually a pretty gross misprice in the market.

02:16That is an excellent job by Femi with all of the award takes today.

02:21Yeah, I would not have guessed Kitna.

02:25I don't know who I even would have guessed there.

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