Final Week at Belmont: Breeders Cup Previews & Handicapping

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00:00Let's head on over to Belmont at the Big A. This is going to be actually the final week

00:07we're in our final segment. We're still doing some handicapping. Alexa, the next couple

00:10of weeks, we're going to have Breeders' Cup previews and probables and talk news leading

00:14into the big Breeders' Cup races. But we can still handicap a couple interesting races

00:18over at Belmont at the Big A. The first of those on Saturday, October the 12th, is going

00:23to be race number five. It's the Grade 2 Sands Point, Alexa. And first off, we have to talk

00:29about the number one. Am I allowed to say this name on the air? I feel like I'm not

00:34allowed to say this name. I'll say it. Go for it. I love it. Mo Fox Given. Just shout

00:41out to him, name this, Philly. I think it's hilarious. For those of you who aren't familiar

00:45with racehorse naming, there are guidelines that you have to do when you submit a name.

00:50It can't be longer than 18 characters. It can't be the same name as another horse who's

00:54been running in the last five years. And it has to go through a review process to make

00:58sure it's appropriate. And I once submitted Hotwire for one of my horses, which I thought

01:03was such a cool name. And I got declined because of hotwire.com. And I'm still hot about it.

01:08But anyway, I like this horse, not only for the name. She's been steadily improving, minus

01:15that last out at Kentucky Downs. But like we've said before, Kentucky Downs is such

01:19a weird track. A lot of horses don't perform well. So I'm not super worried about it. She's

01:23placed in a number of Graded Stakes races and has a really strong close in here, second

01:27only to the two, Spalladay, who I also like in here, going to be the favorite. Improved

01:33every single start steadily. And she got fourth by only a length and a half in the Grade Two

01:38Placid Stakes, where if you remember me talking about that earlier in this show, was won by

01:43Grayosh over She Feels Pretty, my top and third pick in the Grade One Queen Elizabeth

01:49Stakes. So, so these are like the, these are the fillies that are like a cut below the

01:55QE2, because that's a Grade One, this is a Grade Two. So it shows you horse like Spalladay,

01:59who finished fourth behind Grayosh and She Feels Pretty, probably not quite good enough

02:04to go in the QE2, but should be favored in here, or one of the top, top tier contenders

02:08in here. So it just shows you the difference in class level between some of those. Give

02:12us another horse or two that you like in here.

02:14Yeah, I like the three, Shade of Pale, 10 to 1 odds. So we like that. My favorite long

02:20shot will need a big improvement, like a big improvement, but has had a big improvement

02:25every single start. And as the stablemate of the two, Spalladay, I just really like

02:30seeing how she's learning every race and progressing. And I could just see that trend continuing

02:35and being a major player. I don't know. I mean, honestly, maybe to win.

02:39She's visually impressive, right? Because on speed figures and some of her ratings,

02:44she might need to improve a little bit. But as you pointed out, she is improving and visually

02:48she looks like a horse who's checking a lot of the boxes. The way this race shapes up,

02:52you can see with the pace projector, they have the four, Makonga, way out in front early.

02:57And that's just the kind of horse she is. She's sort of a runoff horse. She's kind of

03:00tough to relax and kind of tough to settle down. But she gets the lead every time. And

03:06she's tough to, you know, she's not a horse that you're going to challenge. She's just

03:10kind of her own worst enemy. So they'll all have to run down Makonga. I'll mention one

03:14more before we flip to the next race. The six style points. One of the top contenders

03:19I think should be sitting in a pretty good spot as Timeform US has her in like the fourth

03:23spot. That makes a whole lot of sense. She was a winner last time out in the Virginia

03:27Oaks, a dead heat winner. So I like the six a little bit. Alexa has the one on top. Alexa,

03:34Mo Foxgibbon. Great name. One of the best that we'll talk about here, I'm sure in the

03:38coming weeks. Let's flip to our final race of this show that we're going to discuss.

03:43It's going to be race number seven at Belmont at the Big A. And this one is the Floral Park

03:48with $135,000 purse. This is a six furlong turf sprint and all turf sprints are not equal.

03:55One thing that we've talked about different courses through the weeks that we've been

03:58on here. Alexa, if you compare like six furlongs at Belmont or Aqueduct to six and a half at

04:03Kentucky or Santa Anita coming down the hill versus five or five furlongs at other places,

04:09there are a lot of different turf sprints. I think we have to start in here with risk

04:13threshold who's probably the quickest. Yeah. Risk threshold is going to be quick coming

04:18off two straight wins. Likely the leader, um, you know, kind of opposite from secret

04:23money who I also like in here. Secret money has, um, been trying really, really hard races

04:28and just being like just a cup below. And now they're stepping back and risk threshold

04:33has been overachieving in a lower level and stepping up. Um, so I think those are both

04:38really good angles that can pay a lot when you're looking at races. Um, but yeah, risk

04:42threshold is, is a one run type of course who needs the lead and is going to get it.

04:49I think. Yeah. It doesn't seem like there's all that much other early pace to push risk

04:53threshold. Uh, you and I both think that those are two of the horses to beat, like the top

04:57contenders, the five will be on the lead. And as you pointed out secret money, kind

05:01of the opposite, but she is coming out of way tougher races than most of this field

05:05has been facing. So from a class standpoint, she fits. I'll mention one more before we

05:10get out of here. The number one loon cry who is just really sharp and she's stepping up

05:15now. So this will probably be the toughest group she's faced. But when you're in great

05:18form, when you've won three in a row, that's when you get the acid test. That's when it's

05:22the right time to step up and see if you can really compete with those.

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