Why the crisis in the Middle East is 'catastrophic'

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00:00I don't think the general public in Europe, the UK, in North America really fully understands

00:12the calamity of the situation that we are all in, not only with the people of the Middle

00:18East, but really globally.

00:21What is unfolding and what now incredibly seems likely to unfold is going to be catastrophic,

00:30not only for the combatants themselves, the Israelis, the Iranians, Lebanese, the different

00:37actors in Palestine, Gaza, Hamas, et cetera, but also will undoubtedly have global ramifications

00:46and quite negatively so.

00:48And let's also remember that this incredible escalation in the Middle East comes amid the

00:56Russian-Ukrainian open war, which is becoming even more devastating and dangerous by the

01:04day.

01:05You have what's shaping up to be a cocktail of really just vastly explosive conflicts

01:13that are inarguably getting out of hand, although they really were getting out of hand for quite

01:19some time.

01:21Where we're at right now with last night's Iranian strike on the Israelis, as news filters

01:30out, one needs to be cautious because there's heavy Israeli military censorship of the information,

01:36and the Biden administration has a distinct interest to play down the actual impact of

01:41the attacks.

01:42But what now seems likely is that the Iranian ballistic missile attack was fundamentally

01:50different from the one in April.

01:53It was much more targeted, much more effective in striking the apparently intended target

02:01areas.

02:02But most importantly, what we seem more and more sure about is that Israeli air defenses

02:09were largely evaded, if not in the majority, by the Iranian missiles.

02:15What also seems apparent is that unlike in April, where numerous nations, including many

02:20Arab nations, participated in the joint defense, it seems as if it was a much more limited

02:26set of actors last night.

02:28The main takeaway, however, is that the Israeli government now both has its Qaziz Bel-Ai to

02:37widely attack directly in Iran, including leadership targets, military targets, and

02:42one suspects energy infrastructure targets, to that this Israeli government is undoubtedly

02:49propelled by what one suspects is a real shock and fear amongst Israelis who have not seen

02:59their air defenses penetrated to this extent.

03:03I would almost go as far to say that the shock over the October 7th penetrations, which

03:09were these land attacks by Hamas and others into Israel, which of course sent shockwaves

03:16throughout Israel, that this success of the ballistic missile attack last night getting

03:22through the Israeli Iron Dome and other systems, I think that that will have, if not as much

03:29of an effect, certainly a very strong effect like post-October 7th, which fundamentally

03:36radicalizes the Israeli body politic, the general popular sentiment in favor of a very

03:44strong, direct, sweeping attack on their perceived enemies.

03:49And that's where I think we're at today.

03:52It seems increasingly likely that the Israelis will strike in a very hard manner, widely

03:58within Iran.

04:00It seems quite possible that they are now arguing and trying to convince the Biden administration

04:06to join a coordinated attack.

04:09Why?

04:10Because the Israeli military and air force is unable, according to most public accounts,

04:16unable to conduct a sort of wide strike that would be necessary to make an even plausible

04:22case that Iran's future projection of military power, ballistic missiles, could be decimated

04:29or taken off the board, if you will.

04:32Let's also remember that if they are not able in a coordinated attack to take off the Iranian

04:38missile threat in a substantial way, the Iranians have now very clearly messaged that Israeli

04:45allies in the region, and that's specifically directed to the UAE and Bahrain, one thinks,

04:50that their energy assets and other infrastructure will be within the Iranian missile targeting

04:56sites.

04:57That leaves open the imminent possibility that should energy platforms be targeted and

05:04struck on all sides, or even on the Iranian side, we are in for extreme market disruptions

05:10in the energy sector that will have enormous short, medium, and long-term ramifications

05:15for Europe, for the UK, for the U.S., and will have destabilizing impacts in a number

05:22of different domains as well, follow-on, knock-on effects from that.

05:27We can also say that if the Israelis realize what Prime Minister Netanyahu has telegraphed

05:32recently, that they believe regime change in Iran is in the offing, the collapse of

05:39the Iranian state, if it even comes to that, will actually also bring an enormous added

05:45layer of instability, of violence, and of also state breakdown beyond Iran as flows

05:55of people start to try to move out of Iran, as the Iranians try to use their conventional

06:01capabilities or otherwise to respond as best they can, even without adequate missile capabilities,

06:09all of these scenarios look very bad, and they look bad far beyond the contours of the

06:16immediate actors involved.

06:19We are in the beginning stages of a major regional war, one that has been long war-gamed,

06:28by some quarters predicted. It was by no means inevitable, but this is where we are at right

06:35now, and I think that this will, or we are upon perhaps one of the most momentous history-changing

06:43periods in the coming days and weeks than we have seen certainly since the 9-11 attacks,

06:51but I would argue perhaps for many decades. We are at one of the most dangerous points

06:56too in the modern era since the end of World War II.

07:01Unfortunately, it seems as if the Biden administration, which is the only power able to restrain the

07:08Israelis in their response to last night's attacks, which did not apparently directly

07:14kill any civilians or hurt civilian infrastructure, and may have resulted only in light damage

07:20to the military sites that were successfully targeted, but either way, the Biden administration

07:26is the only power that can restrain the Israelis, and I think unfortunately, given that that's

07:33the only course of action to try to avert this awful series of escalations and spiraling

07:40conflict that I described earlier, unfortunately, it remains unlikely that the Biden administration

07:46will actually restrain the Israelis. I think it's much more likely that they join in a

07:51coordinated, quote-unquote, preemptive wide attack to try to substantially knock out Iran's

07:58projection of power beyond its borders through its missiles. The reasons for this is twofold.

08:04One is President Biden has made a personal commitment since one year to a no-limits,

08:10effectively a no-limits policy for the Israelis, and he believes this deeply, we think. Second,

08:16the Biden administration and key figures, especially in the White House, have publicly

08:21signed up towards Netanyahu's escalate to de-escalate policy. They are now in a cul-de-sac

08:28where they have to call the Iranian attack from last night, and they are locked into

08:34this policy one way or another, and unfortunately, that's why I think the coming hours perhaps,

08:41but certainly days, will see the initiation of an even worse spiral than we've seen in

08:47the last few days, few weeks, and indeed almost 12 months since Hamas's horrific attack on

08:54October 7th.

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