What will Iran's response be to Israel's assassination of Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah?

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00:00For more, we can speak to Kawa Hassan, a non-resident fellow at the Middle East and

00:03North Africa program at the Stimson Center. Thank you for speaking to Paris Direct.

00:09A lot of waiting as to how major regional players are going to react to this week of escalation.

00:15What are the calculations that Iran's supreme leader needs to be making?

00:21Thank you. So Iran is indeed in a strategic bind. Iran is facing probably its

00:28most consequential strategic dilemma since the establishment of the Islamic Republic,

00:34for the simple reason that they have to react. But what kind of reaction and how and when?

00:42Of course, that is the dilemma for the Iranian leadership, for the supreme leader. If they

00:47respond too strongly and in a way that invites a massive Israeli, but also maybe Western US

00:57reaction, that could be devastating for the regime. And if they don't, or if they respond lightly,

01:05then that will further weaken the credibility of the Iranian regime in the region, particularly

01:12among the constituencies of the so-called axis of resistance, because the credibility of Iran

01:19and the Islamic Republic has really taken a big hit. And Israel literally, once again,

01:26has called Iran's bluff. So how they would react, that is really difficult to predict.

01:34So all eyes on Tehran in the coming hours, days and weeks.

01:39And how much pressure domestically to react? Iran's head of the judiciary saying,

01:46we have a right under international law to retaliate. How common is that sentiment in Iran?

01:53Well, I think among the core constituencies of the regime, in the regime itself, but also the popular

02:03base of the regime, I think definitely there are calls for a harsh response,

02:08particularly from the side of the hardliners. I'm not sure whether that sentiment is shared

02:13throughout the society, because as we know, two years ago there were mass protests against the

02:20regime, which was suppressed. So the Iranian society, by and large, is really more concerned

02:27with the economic hardship in the country, lack of political freedom.

02:32So most probably within the hardliners, there are increasing calls for response. But I'm not

02:39sure even there are calls for response from the more moderate, reformist factions within

02:45the regime, because they know that the consequences could be devastating for the regime.

02:50What about Iran's proxies? How do we expect them to react? I think we'll see something

02:56from the Houthis, sustained rocket attacks, or from Hamas. I mean, what are the possibilities

03:02here? When the Supreme Leader said that there must be resistance, continued resistance,

03:08didn't necessarily say it would come on from Iran directly.

03:13Right. So we should definitely expect retaliation from the Houthis, for sure, and also probably

03:20from some Iraqi factions, proxies of Iran. As for Hamas, I'm not sure they still have some

03:28capacities, but whether they really have a capacity to again attack Israel in a more hard,

03:34massive way, that is doubted. But I think after the decapitation, if you like, of Hezbollah

03:46and infiltration and disruption of its communication system, I mean, these proxies

03:53can attack definitely Israel, but I'm not sure to what extent they will be effective in, you know,

04:00posing existential threat to the state of Israel. So we, I mean, definitely there will

04:06be continuous attacks, but how effective, that remains to be seen. And I doubt that Iran itself

04:13will really, you know, again, engage in a dialogue with Israel once again, because as I said,

04:20the consequences for the regime could be catastrophic.

04:24And the way you put it, the decapitation of Hezbollah's

04:28sort of central core there. Give us an idea, two more senior members killed Israel, saying,

04:36what's left of that high-ranking command in Hezbollah?

04:40That's a good question. What's left? I mean, we still have some, you know,

04:43senior leaders like Hashem Safiyyeddin, like Na'im Qasem, so the deputy of Nasrallah,

04:52and Hashem Safiyyeddin, the head of the executive council. There are still some, you know,

04:58senior leaders around, but I think they have, you know, I mean, I think decapitation is the best

05:04word to describe the, you know, the impact of the Israeli assassination of Nasrallah and other

05:12leaders, even as your reporter from Beirut said, you know, even last night, they killed two more,

05:17you know, military senior leaders. They still have, you know, senior leaders around,

05:21but that's not the issue. I think, you know, with time, there will be a new generation

05:27coming up and take leadership, and it will take time for Hezbollah to reconstruct, reorganize,

05:34itself. But I doubt it will be, you know, Hezbollah of Nasrallah, right, from the 90s and

05:422000s until now. I mean, he was, you know, he was the one who really reorganized Hezbollah after

05:48the assassination of his predecessor, Mousavi, with the help of Iran, of course, and it was a

05:54different regional context, which helped him to, you know, consolidate Hezbollah as the most proxy

06:01partner of Iran in the Middle East. I doubt they will be able to, you know, to resurrect that

06:07Hezbollah. So most probably we may see a new Hezbollah. How that will look like, that we have

06:13to wait and see. We're still waiting to see how Israel responds also, whether there will be this

06:17incursion into Lebanon, whether there won't be. But the statements we've heard coming from Israeli

06:23officials, Israeli military, the prime minister himself discussing the long arm of Israel and

06:28suggesting no one was beyond its reach. The supreme leader of Iran ushered away to a secure

06:34location with heightened security. Are there feelings that Israel might be able to do something

06:44else like what it did with Nasrallah in regards to the supreme leader, or is that just unfounded

06:51fears? Right. So, I mean, right after October 7th, I wrote, you know, a commentary in which I

06:58I said basically what Hamas did and, you know, the ensuing Israeli reaction is what I call the end

07:05of red line politics. So we used to have red lines before October 7th, you know, in the region

07:12between Israel and Hezbollah, Israel and Iran, Israel and Hamas. But actually those red lines

07:18by and large have been eliminated, if you like. So the fact that Israel has decided to kill Nasrallah

07:25and continue killing top leadership of Hezbollah, but also, you know, some key military commanders

07:33of Iran and even attacking the Iranian consulate earlier this year, clearly tells us that

07:41the old status quo, the old rules of engagement of red lines is actually is not only there.

07:48So nothing could be ruled out from the Israeli side. Just to cut you off on that point,

07:54sorry to interrupt, in a world where there are no more red lines, is there still a place for

07:58diplomacy? There are always space for diplomacy. And the fact that Iran doesn't want a regional

08:05war is actually, you know, it's a positive development. The U.S., even though they,

08:13you know, unconditionally support Israel, they don't want a regional war. Regional countries,

08:18they don't want a regional war. So there is still space for diplomacy. But what is needed

08:23is a political vision and political will, particularly from the side of the U.S.

08:27and other powers, also, you know, China, others, and regional countries really to put pressure.

08:34First, they should put pressure on Israel to, you know, to reach a ceasefire with Hamas deal and

08:40hostages being released. Because at the end of the day, we, you know, the past three, four days,

08:45we have been all consumed by the impact of the assassination of Nasrallah, and rightly so.

08:50But the root cause of the problem in the Middle East is the Palestinian issue. As long as that

08:55is not resolved, you know, violence only breeds violence. So at the end of the day, what is needed,

09:01there is always a space for diplomacy. And as we speak, there might be all kinds of negotiations

09:06behind the scenes, which is a good sign. But at the end of the day, what is needed for the region

09:12is a settlement, if not an agreement, where Palestinians get justice and statehood,

09:20and Israelis get the security they want to. So that is at the end of the day, you know,

09:26what I think, you know, what all diplomatic, all powers, regional, international, should work

09:32towards. Kawa, thank you very much for your time. Kawa Hassan, joining us from Brussels. Thank you.

09:37Thank you so much. Thank you for having me.

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