Migrating Californians May Not Be Turning Neighboring States Blue

Veuer

An analysis released last month by real estate company Redfin says that despite high numbers of people leaving California, registered Democrats in neighboring swing states don’t seem to be increasing. Veuer’s Matt Hoffman has the story.

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00:00New arrivals from California may not do much to turn Arizona and Nevada blue this election.

00:05That's according to an analysis released last month by real estate company Redfin.

00:09The analysis says that more people left California in 2022 than left any other state that year,

00:14presumably in many cases due to high housing prices.

00:17And many of those who leave go to nearby urban centers like Las Vegas or Phoenix.

00:21And since California is a solid blue state,

00:23one might expect an influx of its former residents to shift neighboring states to the left.

00:28But Redfin says that from 2020 to 2024, both Arizona and Nevada saw

00:32decreases in raw numbers and percentage shares of registered Democrats in the electorate.

00:37Registered Republicans' numbers were more mixed,

00:39but both states saw an increase in voters not registered with either major party.

00:44Redfin's senior economist Elijah de la Campa says,

00:46while a lot of people were simply moving to where they could afford a home,

00:49some sought a place where they fit in better politically.

00:52Which is to say that while Californians may lean left,

00:55people who leave California may be more likely to lean right.

00:58De la Campa added,

00:59while this self-sorting can help explain the voter registration trends,

01:02it's more likely that a lot of Arizonans and Nevadans

01:04have been feeling very disillusioned by their political choices.

01:08While Nevada has gone blue since 2008,

01:10Arizona was considered a red state prior to President Biden's win there in 2020.

01:14As of now, real clear polling averages give Trump a slight 1.3% lead in Arizona,

01:19while Harris has an even slighter 0.5% lead in Nevada.

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