Kamala Harris DOMINATES Swing States in Latest Polling Averages

Hargonians tech.

Transcript

00:00To delve into the ongoing 2024 presidential election and analyze recent polling data,

00:06we begin by examining the states expected to remain securely Democratic or Republican.

00:11On the Democratic side, states like Hawaii, California, Oregon, and Washington, along

00:17with New Mexico, Colorado, Illinois, Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District, Vermont, Massachusetts,

00:24Rhode Island, Connecticut, New York, New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland, Maine's 1st Congressional

00:31District, and Washington, D.C. are anticipated to stay in the Democratic column.

00:36These states are known for their consistent voting patterns, favoring the Democratic Party

00:41in recent election cycles.

00:43On the Republican side, the traditionally conservative states include Alaska, Idaho,

00:48Utah, Wyoming, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Nebraska.

00:54At large, Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, Iowa, Louisiana, Arkansas, Missouri, Mississippi, Alabama,

01:03Tennessee, Kentucky, Indiana, Ohio, South Carolina, Florida, West Virginia, and Maine's

01:112nd Congressional District are likely to remain solidly Republican.

01:15These states have historically supported Republican candidates and continue to show

01:19strong alignment with the GOP.

01:22Turning our focus to key battleground states, the 2024 election is showing intriguing shifts.

01:28In Pennsylvania, Vice President Kamala Harris currently holds a narrow lead over former

01:33President Donald Trump by one point.

01:36This mirrors the 2020 election result, where President Joe Biden won the state by a similar

01:41margin.

01:42While Harris's support remains steady, it is likely that she will carry Pennsylvania

01:46once again in 2024.

01:49In New Hampshire, Harris has a stronger lead, polling 6.6 points ahead of Trump.

01:54Given that Biden won New Hampshire by 7 points in 2020, the state's political dynamics

02:00appear to be consistent and Harris can be expected to retain New Hampshire in the Democratic

02:05column.

02:06Michigan, another critical swing state, sees Harris leading by nearly 2 points, with her

02:11highest lead recorded at 3.5 points.

02:15Biden won Michigan by 2.8 points in 2020, suggesting that Harris is in a strong position

02:20to hold onto the state, barring significant shifts in the electorate.

02:25Wisconsin is another pivotal state where Harris holds a nearly 3-point lead.

02:30Biden won Wisconsin in 2020 by a much smaller margin, just half a percentage point.

02:35So Harris's more substantial lead indicates that Democrats could potentially perform better

02:40here in 2024, solidifying Wisconsin as a key win for the Harris campaign.

02:45Moving to Minnesota, Harris's lead of 7.1 points mirrors Biden's exact margin of victory

02:52in 2020.

02:53This consistency in polling suggests that Minnesota is likely to remain a safe state

02:57for Democrats in the upcoming election, with Harris well-positioned for a comfortable win.

03:03In Nevada, the situation is tighter, with Harris leading by just 0.3 points.

03:09Biden won Nevada in 2020 by 2.4 points, so while the margin has narrowed, historical

03:14precedence suggests that Harris may still carry Nevada, albeit by a narrower margin.

03:20Arizona is proving to be more challenging for Harris, with Trump leading by half a point.

03:25Biden won Arizona in 2020 by a very slim margin of 0.3 points, making Arizona a critical toss-up

03:33for 2024.

03:35Given the state's recent trend toward the Democratic Party, there is still potential

03:38for Harris to flip the state back in her favor.

03:41Georgia presents a similar scenario, with Trump currently leading by half a point.

03:47Biden narrowly won Georgia in 2020 by about 12,000 votes.

03:52Although Trump has a slight lead in the polls, Georgia's recent shift toward the Democratic

03:56Party makes it a competitive battleground, with Harris still having a chance to contest

04:01the state.

04:02North Carolina is another close race, with Harris ahead by just 0.3 points.

04:08Trump won the state by 1.3 points in 2020, but Harris' small lead, coupled with the

04:13changing demographics and political landscape in North Carolina, suggests that the state

04:18could be in play for Democrats in 2024.

04:21Finally, in Virginia, Harris holds a comfortable 8-point lead.

04:26Biden won Virginia in 2020 by 10 points.

04:29So while Harris' lead is slightly smaller, Virginia is expected to remain solidly Democratic,

04:35giving her campaign a significant advantage in this state.

04:39Looking at the overall electoral map, these polling trends suggest that Vice President

04:43Harris could be poised for a strong performance in 2024, potentially winning many of the states

04:49that carried Biden to victory in the previous election.

04:52However, polling is just one metric, and betting odds offer an additional layer of

04:56complexity to the race.

04:58According to betting markets, Harris currently holds a narrow edge over Trump, with 50% odds

05:04to Trump's 49%.

05:06These odds have fluctuated significantly since Biden exited the race, with Trump initially

05:11holding a commanding lead of 66% to Harris' 18%.

05:16However, Harris has since closed the gap, even overtaking Trump in the odds at times.

05:22Interestingly, Trump still holds an advantage in several key battleground states, according

05:27to betting markets.

05:28It's important to note that the popular vote does not determine the outcome of the

05:33U.S. presidential election.

05:34As a result, while Harris may lead in the national betting odds, Trump could still win

05:39enough electoral votes to secure the presidency, as the state-by-state results will ultimately

05:44decide the race.

05:46Historically, Trump was also behind in the betting odds in both 2016 and 2020, yet both

05:52elections were highly competitive and decided by narrow margins in key swing states.

05:57In Pennsylvania, for instance, Trump currently leads in the betting markets with 52% to Harris'

06:0448%, despite Harris' lead in the polls.

06:07New Hampshire strongly favors Harris, with betting odds showing her at 85% to Trump's

06:1315%.

06:14Michigan also leans toward Harris at 59% to Trump's 41%, and Wisconsin follows suit,

06:21with Harris ahead 58% to 42%.

06:24Minnesota, solidly in the Democratic column, has Harris with a commanding 93% to Trump's

06:307%.

06:31In Nevada, Trump holds a slight edge in the betting markets at 51% to Harris' 49%, while

06:37Arizona shows a more pronounced lead for Trump, with 60% to Harris' 40%.

06:43Georgia, another key battleground, favors Trump at 58% to 42%, as does North Carolina

06:50with the same margin.

06:52Virginia, however, remains firmly in Harris' column, with an 89% to 11% advantage in the

06:58betting markets.

07:00When translating these betting odds into an electoral college map, the picture becomes

07:04more nuanced.

07:06Harris is projected to win Wisconsin's 10 electoral votes, while Trump is expected to

07:11take Arizona's 11.

07:13Harris is favored to win Michigan's 15 electoral votes, while Trump is projected to claim Georgia's

07:1916.

07:20Minnesota's 10 electoral votes are solidly in Harris' camp, while Pennsylvania, with

07:25its 19 electoral votes, is leaning toward Trump.

07:28North Carolina's 16 electoral votes are also projected to go to Trump, along with Nevada's

07:346.

07:35However, Virginia's 13 electoral votes are expected to remain firmly with Harris.

07:41This betting market scenario presents a highly competitive race, emphasizing the uncertainty

07:46surrounding the 2024 election.

07:49While polls suggest Harris may have the edge, the electoral college and betting markets

07:53highlight how pivotal battleground states will be in determining the final outcome.

Category

Transcript

Be the first to comment

Recommended