PGA Best Bets: ProCore Outrights and Finishing Positions

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00:00The PGA TOUR Fall Series starts this week in one country, up in Northern California,

00:09Napa, California.

00:11So Keith Stewart joins us here on this Tuesday on the Early Line on Sports Grid.

00:16Keith, we appreciate the time.

00:17Thank you for being here, as always, on TEL.

00:20Ben, Joe, good morning.

00:23Hey, Joe, congratulations.

00:24The Louisville police just called.

00:27They called me, and they said, thank God that the Miami-Dade police have done such

00:30a good job, because now they're suddenly off the hook as far as arresting superstars in

00:35the sports world.

00:38Always a confusing time when that happens.

00:41So, Keith, let's look at where things are before we dive into the Fall Series with what

00:46we saw at the end of the FedExCup playoffs.

00:49Scotty Scheffler, unlike the previous two seasons, does triumph at Eastlake, 30 under

00:54par, of course, with the starting strokes included as the FedExCup champion this year

01:00in 2024.

01:02A green jacket, seven PGA TOUR victories.

01:06We discussed, Keith, of course, how things would be in the competition for the PGA TOUR

01:11golfer of the year between Scotty Scheffler and Xander Schauffele.

01:15You add in a gold medal for Scotty as well.

01:18Is Scotty Scheffler the PGA TOUR player of the year in 2024?

01:23Well, Ben, there's without a doubt that he has earned that right this year.

01:26He's had a historic year, and I think that becomes now part of the conversation.

01:31After winning the FedExCup and taking home the $25 million prize and basically cementing

01:36himself as the golfer of 2024, it's like, OK, well, where does this year compare to

01:44the great years of Tiger Woods that we saw in the early 2000s?

01:47And that's more of the conversation that I think that we're going to be having this fall

01:51once Scotty is actually designated the PGA TOUR player of the year and the players get

01:55their votes in.

01:56But it's an exciting time for the PGA TOUR because the fall becomes part of limbo.

02:02The top 50 in the FedExCup points that made it all the way to Denver when I was back out

02:06there, those guys are set.

02:08Their numbers are set in stone.

02:10But the rest in the top 125 have eight events this fall with which to gain a spot and their

02:152025 card.

02:17And we start this week out in Napa at the Pro Core Championship.

02:22And we know, Keith, in this in years past, we were talking that you've got a couple of

02:28Wyndham Clark.

02:30You've got Sihith Agala, I think is the favorite, but or Max Holman as well as another another

02:36name who obviously has not been playing well.

02:39Let me start with this.

02:41What underwins this tournament?

02:43Because this feels like a birdie fest USA, no?

02:46Oh, there's no doubt about that, Joe.

02:49Par 72 scorecard measuring just a little over 7100 yards with four par fives.

02:56The average winning score over the last five years is 19 under par.

02:59The last 10 winners have averaged somewhere in the ballpark of 24 subpar scores over 72

03:05holes.

03:06So, you know, a third of the holes that they're going to play, they're going to make birdie

03:09or better on.

03:10So and at the length that these guys are going to play, we have nine par fours of the 10.

03:15They're under 435 yards.

03:17These guys drive the ball 300 yards in the air.

03:20That's a wedge to attack all of these holes.

03:22And if you look historically at the guys that have played well here, not just the heat,

03:26the gala who's defending champion, but then the two years before that, Max Holman, when

03:30Max was in the prime of his playing ability, right, he was driving the ball in play all

03:36the time.

03:37And he is a super good putter, very opportunistic.

03:39So he hits it close with a wedge and he makes a ton of birdies.

03:42And that's why he was such a good fit here.

03:43Now, Max has got a lot on his plate right now.

03:46He's the last captain selection for this President's Cup team.

03:49And those matches happen in two weeks.

03:51There's six guys here that are in the matches that are competing in the pro court championship.

03:56And in the gala, Wyndham Clark, Max Holman, these guys at the top of the board, Cory Connors.

04:02I get the feeling that as we talk about, you know, the favorites and everything, I'm going

04:06to look past those guys because overall, I think they have to be, especially the gala,

04:11even as the defending champ, it's his first time going to one of these matches.

04:15It's his first President's Cup for Wyndham Clark.

04:17Yes, he went to Rome last year for the Ryder Cup.

04:19You know, Max Holman's got a lot of his plate.

04:21He just switched coaches.

04:22I mean, these guys, I'm going to skip past the President's Cup guys.

04:26When I look at the pro core, you know, kind of early leans, and I'm definitely going to

04:29be looking further down the board when we get to that point.

04:33Just over two weeks away, the 2024 President's Cup up in Montreal between Team USA and the

04:39international team as well.

04:41We'll talk about that in a few weeks time.

04:43So, Keith, you mentioned looking deeper down the board can always be a time during the

04:48fall series on the PGA Tour to find some big plus money prices.

04:52Who gets your attention?

04:54Well, you know what, over the last 10 years, the average pre-tournament odds of the winners

05:00have been somewhere around 90 to 1 or plus 9,000.

05:03So we got to look a little bit deeper down the board.

05:05Oh, yeah.

05:06So there's one guy that we've been talking about a couple times off and on, whether it

05:10was Golf Wednesday or with you guys on Tuesday morning, and that's JJ Spawn.

05:15Back in Minnesota, 3M, top 10, ninth.

05:18He was on nobody's radar, and we were playing him at read the line.

05:21A week later, he goes to the Wyndham, and he comes in third.

05:24Now, he didn't make the playoffs because he had a nice run toward the end of his season,

05:28but he's still hitting the ball great over his last five starts.

05:32He's gaining over seven strokes against the field, and he sits right at that 40 to 1 mark,

05:36that plus 4,000.

05:37Now, as we start talking about him here on SportsGrid, that number's going to drop, so

05:41I would jump after him early.

05:42He's definitely one of my early leans on the early line.

05:45The other guy, speaking of fours, fourth place last year here at the Pro Core Championship,

05:50Eric Cole, and he's been a little hot lately.

05:53Now, his big Pachadillo is getting the ball in play off the tee.

05:57You don't have to hit driver everywhere here at the Silverado Resort on the North Course,

06:01which they play this tournament and have since 2014, so it definitely favors Cole, who's

06:06an excellent wedge player, an unbelievable putter and scorer.

06:09Guy makes a ton of subpar scores, and that's why he was fourth here last year.

06:14He's sitting at plus 4,500, so those two are very good early leans on the early line.

06:20Got to ask you, Keith, what I always say about the old guys, right?

06:25The old guys have been showing up over the last couple of tournaments here, so does Kuchar,

06:30does Webb Simpson.

06:31How far can we go with the old guys in this one?

06:34I mean, you can go as far as you want.

06:36The captain of the International President's Cup team, Mike Weir, he's even here teeing it up.

06:40I mean, this guy doesn't have something to do in two weeks.

06:42I mean, it's crazy.

06:43But you know what?

06:44When it comes to the fall, these guys, if they pull off a couple top 10s and they slide

06:50into that top 125, they get their status for 2025.

06:54I know a lot of this doesn't fit amongst football and everything else, you know, what's

06:59going on.

07:00But those guys that sit between 50 and 150 on the points list, this is a big deal for

07:05the next three months.

07:06And you know what?

07:07We're going to see some great golf along the way.

07:09Keith Stewart, we appreciate the time.

07:12Thank you for being here on this Tuesday on the Early Line on Sports Grid.

07:16We'll talk in a few weeks, getting ready for the President's Cup as well.

07:24Thanks, Mike.

07:25Thanks, Keith.

07:26Thanks, Mike.

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07:52Thanks, Mike.

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