00:00SMP 500 ads that went in over the weekend.
00:03Yeah, and this was huge.
00:04And there was some speculation.
00:06I tweeted five stocks that have been speculated out
00:10in social media, which ones were going in.
00:12Some obvious candidates.
00:14There's one in there that was off the board, ERIE.
00:16But there was basically five stocks
00:19competing for a couple of spots here, and two of them got in.
00:25So we had Dell Technologies.
00:28We had ERIE, Indemnity.
00:31That was one that was off the board.
00:32I did not hear that one from them.
00:34I know.
00:34I was like, all right, well, it's an SMP 500.
00:36Now we might start hearing about it more.
00:37Replacing American Airlines, Etsy.
00:40And they'd already announced this one.
00:42BioRad Laboratories.
00:43And Palantir is replacing.
00:46Palantir is also coming in.
00:47But didn't they already announce Palantir before this?
00:50Or was that also announced over the weekend?
00:51No, Palantir has been on the board.
00:52So if you follow this, and I follow it very closely
00:55because I do index Arab, and I follow it all.
00:57Often on the Friday nights.
00:59Palantir is the last two, three ads that we've had.
01:03We've been thinking it's going to be Palantir.
01:05It's possible.
01:06But the market, I shouldn't say we.
01:08The market's been thinking Palantir.
01:09And then it doesn't go in, and it sells off.
01:11It doesn't go in, and it sells off.
01:13The one stock that has been doing that even more
01:16is Workday.
01:16They have been expecting Workday to go in, I feel like, forever.
01:21And every time it doesn't go in, I used to even play it.
01:24I was like, I think it's going to go in.
01:25And I remember getting beat the hell up on it.
01:28It's very speculative because when they don't go in,
01:30it's not like, oh, they don't go up.
01:32Oh, no, they crush them because they're expected to go in.
01:35And everybody even was on Twitter
01:37was thinking that this is Workday.
01:38Workday is going to do it.
01:39It's had the big run up here.
01:41It had the gap up, the charts.
01:43And not that they're chartists over at S&P,
01:45but I don't think that it hurts that the chart's going up.
01:47I honestly thought it was going to be Workday as well.
01:51I thought Dell too.
01:52And I tweeted out, what I tweeted out
01:53was the five possible candidates that I thought
01:55was APO, Workday, Palantir, Dell, and LNG,
02:00which is Schenier Energy.
02:01I kind of thought Dell was going to go.
02:04I felt like Dell.
02:05And then I thought it was going to be Workday and Dell.
02:07Palantir does go.
02:08So Palantir finally goes in.
02:10They're listening to social media
02:11now because they were all cheering.
02:13Everybody's going crazy on Palantir
02:14because this is a very loved stock in social media.
02:17It is.
02:18But it's funny.
02:19Workday just gets crushed again, down another seven bucks here
02:22because it didn't go in.
02:24So if you're playing these ads,
02:26it's not always just like a slam dunk.
02:28Okay, I'm going to buy.
02:29It's probably going in.
02:30Because when it doesn't go in
02:31and it's expected to go in, they hit it hard.
02:35And what's the official date that they're going in?
02:39I didn't even look that up.
02:40It doesn't matter.
02:41And I mean,
02:42And they move off the bat.
02:43They move on the announcement.
02:44They move off the bat.
02:45They don't typically.
02:47And again, do you have the date, AB?
02:51On that day,
02:52there's usually is some arbitrage opportunities
02:54on the close on that day.
02:56So I shouldn't say it doesn't matter,
02:58but the big move happens on the announcement.
03:02Big move for Dell.
03:03And boy, you had all that consolidation at 110.
03:07Look at that.
03:08Just kind of like the market.
03:08Like, are we going to hold 110?
03:09We're not going to hold 110.
03:11Oh, we close at 102.
03:13Oh, we're back at 110.
03:15We even got over 110 there.
03:17We got into 111 hand.
03:19Nope.
03:20110.
03:2088.
03:21Man, now you're three bucks away from that.
03:23I don't know.
03:24I just kind of feel that you're even a ways away
03:28from a double top.
03:29I mean, maybe you get this 108.
03:32I think what's key for you traders in Dell,
03:34log Dell today,
03:36is to clear that high from Thursday and Friday,
03:38108.21, 108.30,
03:41and get a bid.
03:42Get a bid up there.
03:44If not, there's a long way back down to the close.
03:46You look like you have some scalpers
03:49bidding at the 107 area,
03:50perhaps taking off some shorts.
03:53Palantir has a double dose of good news.
03:55A little bit of AI talk.
03:57They got an AI contract,
03:59making a new high of the move.
04:00This is a love stock, 33.18.
04:04So not too far away from that.
04:06Keep an eye on holding 33 in Palantir.
04:09Workday, maybe go down and fill the gap.
04:12You got some work to do on the downside here.
04:14The top of the big gap up day is 236.74.
04:19That's still 10 bucks away.
04:20AAL is not really moving off this.
04:22No, AAL is in the gutter.
04:24Still have a small position,
04:25a long-term portfolio, I know it.
04:27Yeah.
04:29And anything, any other,
04:31did I cover all those that we're getting?
04:32Eerie, did you do Eerie too?
04:34Oh, it's hard to do Eerie because-
04:36Yeah, this stock's been a monster though.
04:38I mean, not on anybody's radar,
04:40I don't think for the S&P ad,
04:42but it's been a monster.
04:44It's an insurance company.
04:46Oh, there you go.
04:49And then getting the boot, man, Etsy.
04:54What a disaster this stock,
04:56a quiet, epic disaster this stock has been.
04:59The darling of COVID and then, you know,
05:02the run-up even after COVID,
05:04like it was even hanging on,
05:05it was $300 a year after COVID.
05:07It was so strong.
05:08And then kaplooey, I'll say it for you, Joel,
05:12it's fallen and it just keeps falling.
05:15And you are now at four-year lows here on Etsy here.
05:19And, you know, obviously, you know,
05:21just getting back to where it's a 51.45
05:23would be a four-year low or three-year low.
05:26It has been an epic disaster here.
05:28And what this tells you, again,
05:30is valuation matters in the long run, folks.
05:33It doesn't matter when the story is hot.
05:35Matters zero.
05:36Like people who trade on valuation
05:40and the story is hot don't know what they're doing.
05:43Story is hot, don't worry about valuation.
05:45But when the story cools off,
05:46when the momentum cools off,
05:48that's when valuation matters.
05:50And Etsy was always trading at a nosebleed valuation.
05:53And really to a certain extent, it still is.
05:55It's come down, but it's 24 times current earnings.
05:58So now it's gotten a lot more reasonable.
05:59Only 14 on a forward basis,
06:01but I don't know if I trust that 14 on a forward basis
06:03because this company has not been firing
06:04on all cylinders here.
06:06Yeah, like it's one thing when you got, you know,
06:08companies firing on all cylinders
06:10to look at those forward multiples,
06:11but sometimes those estimates can come down, you know,
06:13when they're not firing on all cylinders
06:15because analysts were all excited.
06:16So it's actually quietly kind of went
06:18from a growth stock to a value stock,
06:20but when you're trading 60, 70, 80 times earnings,
06:23make sure that story stays hot.
06:25The first indication that you get the growth slowing,
06:28get the hell out.
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