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00:00You
00:30You
00:55KSC I TV 18 San Bernardino, Los Angeles
01:00San Diego
01:20Hello welcome to money talk I'm Arlo Ceder Berg your host and today
01:24Well, we're gonna discuss a couple things many things as a matter of fact
01:26We're gonna discuss investment books
01:28And we have an expert in that and we can discuss the gone the Gann theory with both our expert in books and with Phyllis
01:33Kahn who's an expert in dr. Jerome bombering?
01:36He's a partner in the investment center and that has how many books now Jerry well right now the investment center is proud to say
01:42We have 5,000 books in our private library and right now
01:45We probably have I'd say some was in the order of 20,000 books for sale
01:49Open to the public some of my understanding you won't sell no
01:53There are certain first editions that are extremely rare such as Samuel Benner's prophecies, which is a very rare book first written
02:011859 we have
02:03Gans some of Gans finest works, which is the Wall Street stock selector a very rare issue you then go into books
02:11Hamilton's work stock market barometer
02:14Thomas Gibson's works his famous letters of 1907 and 08 his charts of 09
02:20Then go into something by George Cole called graphs and their application to the stock market and
02:25Many others that are just too rare to be every we can't go into a model
02:29You you've got a list here of investment books both for commodity investments and for stock market
02:34I noticed some titles on there that I think most people that are acquainted with the stock market know like Burton Crane's a sophisticated investor
02:40Graham and Dodd of course that's a classic and security analyst called security analyst. That's right the Bible mm-hmm
02:46That is there's a lot of books that were we have made up an a nice list for any viewers
02:52That would like to write in to either the station or to the investment center
02:56We've caught up the model library
02:58And we'll be glad to send you a list or list for both commodities and stocks that list about two feet of books
03:05Which we feel that every investor should have okay?
03:07We're gonna put up your address later, so they may be right directly to you about that
03:12There's some books some classic books. I love the one I love
03:17a
03:19classic
03:20people think about
03:25Look back to when
03:27Daniel drew was alive, and you really have the manipulators really at work when you had the days of the bucket shops
03:33Where when you went in there you might as well just put your money down and hope for red or black
03:37It was just about the same
03:39Today when people look at the specialist and they claim these specials up to all this evil
03:43Well before you said pool operators really at work
03:46And they would drive the stock price up drop it rapidly on you without any forewarning. You can be very very
03:54Injured in some of these market movements. Yeah, well today
03:57Since the security exchange regulations came about in 1932 our market environment is totally changed
04:04You don't have pool operators able to manipulate the markets as you did prior to the 30s
04:11And you'll find out that stocks don't move as rapidly as they did
04:15Let's say in the 20s when you had this
04:17great bull market one which we have yet to see the likes of when you consider that the bull market that began in early
04:241924 and culminated in
04:271929
04:28Spanned 300 points, but the increase on the base that started from is really the significant factor
04:34And that it had a six-fold increase
04:37Now since August of 82 we've seen the Dow go from 770 to 1290
04:43Sounds impressive big numbers
04:45But when taken as a percent increase of the base not anything to compare with the 1924
04:52You know going back to drew
04:53He was always on the short side and remember that if he didn't have the stock to cover he'd print it
04:56Well now Daniel Drew was interesting fellow
04:59He decided he was gonna get control of a railroad and how you decided well
05:03How am I gonna do this he waited for the boys to need money, and where would they go to get money?
05:09Daniel drew was right there to give him the money, but on one condition. I want a piece of your railroad
05:15I want to be an insider and sure enough Daniel drew
05:19Gave him the money became an insider and what's interesting as the railroad line started to disintegrate who do they blame?
05:26Poor Daniel drew he had all the money and here the lines were in total shambles so
05:31There's a great he was a great rationalizer to as I remember then who looked after Daniel drew by the way
05:37I wonder what a fellow like you with a degree in organic chemistry in pharmacology. What are you doing with a investment bookstore?
05:42well
05:43All right practice pharmacy for some ten years and decided that the world of finance offered far greater challenge
05:51It really offered up the chance to go as far as your knowledge could take you
05:56It's what the American way is built on that if you have the will the desire and the perseverance
06:02You can go to any lengths of possibilities you want to and when I first became acquainted with WD Ganz theory
06:08I decided this was a ticket to success
06:11Okay, Dan is your idol your hero. He's the man as far as you're concerned
06:16I feel that WD Gan is probably one of the founding fathers of technical analysis
06:22His whole concept is some a some summation of one word total awareness, okay?
06:27We're gonna ask you to explain that when we bring Phyllis Khan into we're gonna ask her to explain it and try to think
06:32About this try to explain that in a minute or less. I know you can't Jerry. Maybe you can we've been out here with dr.
06:37Jerome bombering he has the investment center in the Los Angeles area
06:40And he has his stack of books two feet of books on both sides that he'll offer and give you send you the best ones
06:45If you want to write we'll have his number up later and joining us after the break will be Phyllis Khan
06:50She's a gone theory analyst
07:22I
07:36We're back here at my talk now and our guest is dr. Jerome bombing runner, and he's a partner in the investment center
07:42We were talking about all kinds of investment books, and we were talking about Gan theory now
07:45We're joined by Phyllis Khan, and she's an expert in the Gan theory and tell us
07:49I'm going to ask you later on to explain exactly what that theory is but first of all does it work better for stocks or
07:55Commodities or is it work for both it works equally well for both does it there are some differences because stock
08:02Stocks don't expire the way commodity futures contracts do but the principles are identical
08:08Yeah, Jerry. Do you agree with that?
08:11I agree totally the only trouble that I'd have to say is the one difference stocks move more slowly and
08:17Commodities much move far more rapidly so that we're in dealing in stocks
08:22You can have the opportunity to get out of harm's way a lot faster
08:27Commodities leverage either work for you or against you who was this fellow guy, and what did he do?
08:32Well, I think I'll defer to our
08:35Well again began as a stockbroker and his first
08:41efforts in the market were very disillusioning as they are for many people and
08:45He decided that this was not for him unless he found out how the markets really did work because all he saw were people
08:52Losing money in the stock market
08:54So he took took off many years to study what the causes of price
09:00Fluctuation were and when he came back to the market he came back truly as a master trader
09:06Through his own research studies. He was a brilliant man
09:10I don't doubt that but could he explain what he had in mind to people like you
09:14Obviously to you, but to the public and well at the time he he probably could have but he didn't desire to okay
09:21It wasn't until he reached middle age, and he was
09:25Mellowed out with with all the years of success that he began to write books and courses
09:32Talking about the methods and explaining the techniques so that other people could do it
09:37But in the early years he was extremely secretive about what he did and talked in generalities that wouldn't wouldn't help you at all
09:44Some of these books you got on your list of course are his books Jerry and does he explain really to the public how?
09:50How that help what his methods are now if you study these books yes out of 1923
09:54He first wrote his first book truth of the tape mm-hmm and he gave what he believed will be his first basic rules of
10:02stock operation
10:03He looked at it and told you about where exactly how to work in a well-ordered discipline
10:09Placing your stop losses at definite points limiting your
10:14Losses to a certain percentage of the capital you're working with
10:18Also, we looked at and told you how to always go with the trend and how to determine what the trend of the market was
10:24He's most known from his article with Richard Wyckoff in 1909
10:30Where his successes already became quite obvious and as a matter of fact he predicted that on a certain date
10:37Soybeans would sell at a dollar twenty at twelve o'clock that day soybeans were selling at a dollar
10:43Eight everybody thought no way that this man was there to be true
10:46Needless to say soybeans that day closed at exactly not one tick higher a dollar twenty. That's all well and good
10:53But both of you, I don't understand how he could predict these things
10:56Is there any way either one of you can tell me that well 30 seconds or no?
11:01If that were true, then we'd have a lot more experts on our hands his methods are mathematical and
11:09They range from the very simple to the very complex and of course they can't be summed up in three sentences
11:17but they are mathematical and they are a hundred percent technical and they deal with
11:24the geometry of price and time
11:27In a general way, let me add one thing
11:30I don't think there's a lot of misconception about Gann theory that could be simplified in this
11:35No one part of Gann's approach to market analysis is the total that's it is
11:42Everything when taken together, ie the parts being the summation of the whole
11:47Provides the answer to the whole so that if you try to look at Gann analysis with just angles support resistance
11:56Mathematical points of forces defined by Faraday no one aspect will give you the answer
12:01You have to look at the time factor the price factor
12:05It's uniqueness in terms of how when it shows highs and lows how far from the distance between bottom and top?
12:13So that isn't really just a single aspect that would be took so we say termed Gann
12:18It is not easy is it I think there's a lot easier ways to make money the market. Yeah, okay, so yeah, I would agree
12:26100% with Jerry that Gann's methods are holistic and and you can't really take just one
12:33Segment of it and say I'm using Gann
12:37Some of the methods are so complete that they do stand on their own and many people for example use one little Gann
12:44Technique for day trading and it does work
12:47But that's not trading Gann and and his work has so many levels of depth to it
12:54But the whole thing is
12:57Truly the Gann method and there are those who take what appeals to them and their trading
13:05Philosophy and take that little bit and say I'm using Gann. Do you think it's would you describe it Phyllis as theory or a science?
13:12Well all things related to to trading have a little bit of art in them
13:17and and you have to realize that in the end the
13:22The conclusion that you come to is subjective
13:25It's not like a computer program is spitting out a sheet saying buy here sell there
13:31You have to make the the subjective
13:34Conclusion now it should be that all people using the same methods should come up with the same answers
13:40But very often people's egos or health or a million things can get in the way with this subjective
13:48Observation so in this way you can have differences from time to time
13:53But they're they're based on the analyst not on the method
13:57Remember Jerry Elliot with the Elliot wave said well, this is a great market theory or scientific effect
14:04I have here
14:04But it's mine and don't try to use it because you're never really gonna understand it unless you really study it
14:08Is that true can't it that's very true in order to understand Gann you have to study all the parts
14:14example Elliot and Gann
14:16We're known to have had
14:17numerous discourses about wave theory and
14:21Where Elliot said that there could be five to seven waves Gann had a little different answer
14:25He said that each movement of the market was defined into sections
14:29And that most market movements either terminated in the third section or the fourth section and in the one extreme case
14:36The bear market of 1929 to 1932 you had seven distinctive sections in that market
14:42Think about a minute
14:44Elliot wave analysis has the same thing three sections three waves five waves or seven waves
14:49so it's just a matter of what you describe as a section or a wave describing a wave is tough a
14:56Section is nothing more than a major swing high to a major swing low a lot easier to define
15:01Okay, we're gonna take a little break here
15:03Then we'll come back and with phone calls on the Gann theory and another thing maybe you can talk about commodities and about stocks
15:07I'm sure how it relates to it
15:09So we will be back here on my talk very soon with more on the Gann theory. Stay tuned
15:39You
15:55We're back now on money talk and the subject is the Gann theory our guests are Phyllis Kahn who's an expert in that theory and
16:01Dr. Jerome bombering who has a bookstore, but he's also an expert on Gann theory. So let's take your calls right away. Hello. You're on
16:09Hi, this is Peter from New York. Hi Peter. Hi
16:11I know that Phyllis has been bearish in the stock market for a while now
16:16What I would like to ask both your guests is how low do they feel that the Dow will go before it bottoms out?
16:23And my second question is do they feel that the bull market which began in August of 1982 is over
16:29Will we not see new highs in the stock market next year? Okay
16:34Phyllis okay
16:36Okay, I'll tackle that one
16:38On the very short term. I do have an objective on the Dow that could take it down to the summer lows
16:46Which were 1080 and a possibility of the 1030 level
16:52When we reach that and it could be as late as March of 85
16:57I think that a new bull market could get underway, which which may eventually take out the the
17:071297 high but for the time being I think that that we won't be taking out those highs
17:14Until we reach some of the lower objectives
17:17Is this very is this total? I'll ask Jerry in a second
17:20But I was wondering is this totally on Gann theory and use other things to use any fundamentals for no fundamentals at all
17:26No, you can sit in a dark room with some charts and then your books and exactly. Yes in a cave
17:31Okay, Jerry, what's gonna happen to stock market?
17:33All right
17:33now that the interesting question I'd have to look at is the choice of the starting date of the bull market is
17:39August of 82 if you look at the Standard & Poor's and go back to
17:431974 you'll find out that that is where the primary low was put in the S&P and according to Gann
17:51Bull markets have a tendency to run about ten and a half years
17:54And if you look over the top occurred on this current bull side, you'd have to see that it came at 1290
18:01Which is a very important resistance point as Gann put very well
18:08everything in life according to Faraday is
18:11Mathematical points of force if you look at July soybeans, they topped at 1290
18:16Our current Dow has had problems at 1290, where do I look for the Dow to go in the near term? Well
18:22One of the things Gann pointed out very well is all tops will serve as future bottoms
18:28Therefore I'd have to look between the 1063 to the 1024 area to provide support over the near term
18:35I'd say no later
18:36Then I agree with Phyllis February to March as my target date for that low point
18:42Did you say you think according to an agreement in time and price, yeah, yeah
18:46You're both about on the same
18:48But 1974 you say the bull market started if you look at the SM a chart of the S&P you will find out
18:53That your primary low did indeed occurred in
18:571974 so Gann says and it's a priesthood that 10 years and we're about ready for the bull market to be over
19:03We should have started to go out one thing to be very clear about that
19:08Distribution and accumulation are not short-term phenomena. You don't just make a single sharp spike top and then start dropping
19:16Accumulation distribution are long-term phenomena lasting months or years
19:20We could stay at this level for two years and not violate any of Gann's principles. Okay. Okay, let's go back to the phones
19:26Hello, you're on money talk
19:33Back on the 23rd of July
19:36You had indicated that the break of geometric angles
19:40Confirm lower prices and that a break of 1080 suggested a move to 1030
19:45Now this of course is not a criticism. But what I'm trying to understand is what is the significance of Gann?
19:52Interpretation specifically does that mean that we are in a bear market?
19:56Does it mean for example, or let me put another way what would cause you to change your current interpretation?
20:02Would they break above 1296 do it or alternatively getting around the question another way?
20:08What exactly is the significance of these geometric angles?
20:13One of the many
20:15Significances naturally we can't deal with all of them in in this brief period of time
20:21but one of the
20:23conclusions that you mentioned that I've made on my broadcast is
20:28That the break of a geometric angle on a weekly or monthly chart
20:34Gives advanced information about what will follow the ensuing
20:41Upswing it gives you a clue to
20:44underlying weakness in spite of the fact that the market is able to stage a very
20:51Spectacular rally and that's one of the beautiful parts about the Gann work
20:55Is that you have this trend information?
21:01Very early from price activity and yet the market can go in the other direction
21:07Which fools many people?
21:10so that those
21:12Those objectives that were there in July are still there now
21:17Okay, we got time for another call here before the break. Hello. You're on money talk
21:21Yes, Phyllis, uh, this my name is James O'Quinn from Baton Rouge, Louisiana
21:26Last summer you had on your broadcast you announced key reversal dates for the year
21:32Do you have the key reversal dates for the year 1985?
21:36Well, I do but I don't have them with me. You remember on that show
21:41I we had some visuals where I had them all plotted out on a chart
21:46but if you will
21:49Write to my office, I'll be happy to send you a
21:53Forecast in Gann Angle's my newsletter
21:58Okay, I'd be happy to Jerry you got the four what is it ganded four books
22:03Dad did five words in total. Yeah, he did the first of the truth of the tape the stock detector
22:10Stock selector the new stock selector the stock detector
22:1445 years in Wall Street and how to profit in commodities and
22:17in
22:19His latest work our last work, which would be hot 45 years of Wall Street
22:24He states that he was learning more and more all the time and that he had been in the market 45 years
22:29I was constantly learning and felt that there was still much more to learn
22:34Well in 54 shortly before his death in June of 1955. He did his last piece of work in which he talked about
22:44Geometrical angles is a very unusual method
22:47He talked about them as measuring the pitch or the trend of the market and that in breaking one angle
22:53Why you'd go down to another angle?
22:55It doesn't necessarily mean that you're gonna go into a bear side approach from his earlier work
23:01He said that could mean that you were just gonna go into a creeping type of market
23:05Which later on could recover that motion and which is pitch or trend which were measured by geometrical angles
23:12Which are nothing more than moving averages and later on this could pick up its pitch or its speed of attack to the upside
23:19So that while you say that you break one angle and his earlier work
23:23Dan said you could buy and sell against the 45 degree angle
23:27Well now an interesting fact is if everybody's ever tried it that the scale factor will be a very important phenomena in determining
23:35What is your 45 degree angle as earlier work?
23:39One cent one dollar per box
23:41But if you then work with other commodities, you'll find out that one per one is not always a 45 degree
23:48I'm gonna take another call, but we have less than a minute
23:49So let's let's let me ask you this. Did he ever contradict himself in later works?
23:53There's new discoveries when the ice when you say contradict
23:56I would say no. Yeah, did he learn new things that he felt would supplant what you'd already learned?
24:01Yes
24:02He was constantly a student of the market and found that he had made
24:06Less I say errors, but he discovered better techniques that would increase the value of this technique
24:13Okay, we're gonna take a little break now
24:14We'll be back here with Phyllis and Jerry in a very few moments on again theory. So stay with us
24:19The information and statements made during Financial News Network's programming and commercial announcements are not to be considered
24:26recommendations of specific securities or the general market
24:49KSC I TV 18 San Bernardino, Los Angeles, San Diego
25:20Oh
25:22We're back here now on money talk and the subject is again theory we're talking to dr. Jerome bombering
25:27He's a partner in an investment center a Los Angeles bookstore that specializes in investment books. He's again theory expert
25:33We also have Phyllis Khan. I'm sure you recognize her because if you watch FNN, she's on quite a bit
25:38She is also an expert in gone theory analysis. Let's go right to the phone here
25:42And there's a lot of the phones are all lit up. Hello. You're on money talk
25:46Hi
25:49Yeah, hi Marge and I would like
25:51Phyllis to please define her terms of squaring time and price and
25:56Whether or not she recommends a new point in a new buying point in the March
26:01Key bonds here and what the entry point would be also the March D marks
26:06And how she likes many copper and whether she's a bull or bear and where's the buy and sell point?
26:13Okay, you have 30 seconds. Oh my
26:16Well, I think we'll have to pass on the definition of the squaring of price and time
26:22Suffice to say that when an important square is ending in price and time you get a reversal in the market
26:30Now you asked about
26:32Three markets, where's the next buy point in the bonds right now?
26:36If you heard my analysis this morning
26:39I believe that by the end of the week the the bonds though all of the financial markets are very
26:47Overextended and they may have a very strong correction
26:51So I would not be recommending that you buy bonds at this time. I'd be recommending that you take profits
26:59the metals right now copper
27:02Are are in a declining phase and you asked about the D mark?
27:08and again, I made comments on that this morning that
27:12the the precious metals and the
27:16Currencies are coming down into what I believe may be
27:20Significant lows that the earliest would be around maybe
27:24Mid-december the latest mid-january, but there's they're very important long cycles
27:30So at the moment I would stand aside
27:33I would use some kind of entry signal so that if the markets reverse you can climb aboard
27:39No, I'm wondering this is maybe too fundamental, but it is are coming down. You're still not recommending bonds
27:44I am NOT one of the observations that I've made as a technician is that the very top of the swing in the
27:54Bond in the whole financial markets always comes
27:59Just at the moment in time when there's a string of good news items
28:04The the reduction in the prime because it takes bankers that long to recognize the upswing and by the time they do
28:11It's over excellent point. Let's go on the phones here. Hello. You're on money talk
28:15Yes, this is Richard from Phoenix calling and I really like your show. I have a question for your guests
28:21What I was wondering is when a stock is
28:24Approaching the 45 degree angle is there some criteria that will tell you which way that stock is going to go after it hits that
28:31I've noticed several times in my work where it's approached the angle then it's penetrated that angle and then went through it again and
28:38It seems to leave me a little bit baffled
28:44I'd like to know I meant when you say approaching it. Are we approaching it from the
28:49Upside going up
28:51Quite sure of we still have our guest on well
28:54Yes, if if it's approach from the upside, what would be the criteria or if it's approaching the downside?
29:00What would be the criteria? Okay. All right
29:03Okay. All right the first time on the when you're coming down to the 45
29:08You have to also consider what is the trend of the market?
29:11You really can't go just by the angle because if you read Gann very explicitly and insightfully
29:17You will find out that he talks about
29:19buying always or any of your market actions always be in the direction of the trend and as long as you're making higher swing highs
29:27and higher swing lows
29:29Therefore your trend is up. You would buy every single time against the 45 and it'll read gang closely
29:36You'll say many times the stock will come and rest along the 45 and what's important is
29:42What does it do on a closing basis rather than the intraday basis?
29:47There's very explicit about and also are you talking about on a weekly basis or a daily basis?
29:53I'm not sure Richard how to answer that question
29:55Mm-hmm. Okay. Well, then we'll go right back to the phones. Maybe we'll get somebody that's more of an expert on here
30:00You can he can answer it. I doubt that though. Hello. You're on money talk
30:04Oh, hello, Arlo. Thanks for another very interesting program. Thank you. This is Don from Stewart, Florida
30:11Mm-hmm. I have a first of all, I am a
30:14Fancy myself to be a technician and I have had some luck with just simple trend lines
30:20I'm sure you and your guests know what that is
30:23Now my question will sound cynical and I wish it wouldn't I wish I could think of another way to word it
30:29But if I had a system that fairly consistently
30:33Predicted the market. I think I would spend all my time trading
30:38rather than
30:40Advising others now, please don't think I'm trying to be nasty. I think I know
30:46Yeah, go ahead Jerry when you start and get Phillips. All right, I agree with you very much as a matter of fact
30:52I've taken a fifty eight thousand dollar portfolio ran it under six hundred forty three thousand dollar portfolio
30:57And while I don't profess to give all the keys away that I've discovered nor whatever
31:04wish to imply that
31:06What I would like to do is try to clarify some of the misconception that is surrounding Gann analysis. I
31:14Hope that'll help you with what you can answer questions. Are you rich on Gann?
31:18Yes, I've done very well, I mean no one ever says they're they're rich, right
31:24But no way to get one of the things that that I happen to be an aquarium
31:29yeah, and and
31:31Aquarians love to communicate knowledge to other people and and I feel good in
31:39Writing a newsletter and in giving these once-a-year seminars that I do
31:44Just as in Gann's day, he wasn't willing to share until he mellowed and
31:50Then you realize that out of gratitude for for the legacy of knowledge that he left
31:58that there's there's a great deal of
32:01inner pleasure in
32:05Organizing and and applying the materials and then communicating that knowledge to others. This is my peculiarity
32:12Okay back to the phones hello, you're on money talk
32:33Well, we had a major high in soybeans in 1980 and
32:38one of the things that Gann says about
32:40Bear markets is
32:42two years down one year up and two years down and
32:47So far the soybean market has been working perfectly on that
32:51We had two years down from the November high in 80 to the low in October of 82
32:57We then had 11 months up
33:01Gann says watch for a change in the 11th month and we've started down so that our low is
33:08Problem the lowest low is probably not due
33:11until
33:13August or September of 85 but in between there there can certainly be some
33:19Very very profitable trades on the long side
33:23The lows could be all the way down to four and a half dollars by next October
33:28That's the bad news, but in between there'll be some good moves in both directions
33:33Okay, I guess we have time for another call here. Hello. You're on money. No, we don't
33:36My producer just told us we don't so we're gonna go into a little break
33:39We'll be back in a very few moments. So stay tuned
33:57We're back here now on money talking to discussion of the Gann theory with Phyllis Khan and with dr. Jerome bombering. Hello. You're on money talk
34:07Yes
34:08Yes. Oh, yes, but it's your name, please
34:11Yeah, my name is more hand. Yes. I'm calling for New York
34:17Yes, I should congratulate you on your excellent program, thank you very much send a letter to my boss
34:25Please go ahead
34:27What is his outlook on the gold for next few months and how can you profit?
34:34What is the
34:37Way of investment he proposes
34:40To get the maximum yield on your investment. Okay. Good question. We haven't talked about gold yet
34:47Well, if you want to stay strictly in conformity right now the trend has been down in gold since
34:54January the 20th of 1980 and
34:57Without trying to pick bottoms and trying to look like a hero
35:00All you have to do is simply keep shorting the metals until you get a
35:04Bottom put in and then on the second higher bottom, which Gann would say the safer buying level
35:10I would then become aggressive on gold and right now the biggest money that will be made on the short side of gold
35:18Until you have any other occasions
35:19I'd have to say I'd have to be short the metals and I especially be looking for around
35:23290 and as possibly as low as 250 in gold that much. How about silver and silver?
35:30I think you might have a rally coming out of the $6 area and that could be a very explosive rally
35:35Back as high as even 14 to 15 dollars, but then watch out people the bottom comes and it could be as low as 375
35:43Phyllis you can agree with that. Well, I certainly do in general terms. I've spent a lot of time analyzing the
35:51monthly
35:53London gold fix prices and I forecast last February that
35:59London gold could come down as low as 210 by
36:04December 84 or January of 85
36:08There's a very definite hundred and twenty month cycle there and we're in the second ten
36:13Which is ten years and we're in the second half of that ten-year cycle
36:18And so that we're due for a low to occur now in a in a secular bear market
36:24That should last for about 20 months and then down for the rest of the decade
36:29This is the analysis. What if the Aden sisters are watching? I
36:33Wonder
36:36Hello you're on money talk
36:38Hello. Hello. Yes
36:42Yeah, hi joy
36:44I have a couple of questions for Phyllis. Okay. I noticed that she mentioned she was a
36:49Was an Aquarian and I'm a Sagittarian with Aquarian rising. I'm wondering she has any insight on that
36:55I'm a technical analyst myself
36:57I have employed the Elliott way theory with Fibonacci numbers and recently have gotten into began work. I
37:04have
37:06charted
37:07The port bellies and with the Gann angles successfully plotted the five-week up move that we had
37:13Was very tickled over that we have hit a high
37:17Which was around 74 90 just under a right on an eighth point right now moving back down
37:23I see support levels my RSI which had hit the upper end of the angle the on the last lap up move was
37:31slightly under the angle and
37:34Interpreting these Gann angles and I to think that we are in a corrective
37:38Portion of what seems to be a bear trend on the RSI or have we actually reversed the trend on the port belly
37:46well at this point I can't talk about trends on the RSI because
37:51You know, that's not part of the the analysis I do
37:55But the high that we made at the 74 90 level last week
38:02Was up against old highs and certainly Gann says sell against old highs on the weekly or the monthly
38:08It remains to be seen the extent of the drop if this is going to end the uptrend
38:15But until it does the uptrend is still intact
38:19So we just have to monitor the extent of the drop and if it exceeds past
38:25Corrections in price and time then we can look for a longer trend to have changed
38:31But right now it's too early to say it's a good start though on the shorts
38:36Okay, let's take another call here. Hello. You're on money talk
38:40Hi, this is Mildred
38:42Yes, I could be wrong but I
38:47Think remember Phyllis in an early broadcast mentioned that we were at a turning point in sugar
38:53Just keeps going down. I haven't checked it today, and I didn't hear
38:58The earlier broadcast and she may have mentioned sugar
39:01I would like either of your guests opinion on this market
39:05Well, I would like to quickly say you did not hear me at any time make any
39:12Recommendation on sugar at all. The cycles in sugar are very long and I I think all of the the
39:21Excitement about sugar being at five cents and it's such a low level
39:25Sugar can go to two cents
39:27So I don't see any reason for it to be either long or short in the sugar market and I've have no
39:34Recommendations there whatsoever. So you were thinking of someone else. Have you got any comments Jerry?
39:39Cuz I sugar market if you look at sugar and you go back to I believe it's around 63 64
39:44You'll find out that much sugar put in the low at a dollar
39:4823 cents and if you look going back how long sugar takes and you'll find out that the next
39:55Decent size moving sugar to the upside isn't anywhere as near
40:00All I say at least four to five years hence and employing Gann technique
40:05It's never too low to sell and when the trend is down you always stay with the trend and I'd be selling all
40:11Reaction potentials until you have a definite indication of the loads and put in
40:15Okay, folks, no sugar let's take another call here. Hello. You're a money talk. Yeah, this is Craig from Philadelphia
40:21Yes, right. My question is to Phyllis earlier on the broadcast fellas. You mentioned that the Dow
40:27According again should go down to the 1030 to 1080 level in February of March in that time frame of 85
40:33Right, and my question is what is can say about the upside?
40:36What's the maximum we could see in the Dow between now and then in gain analysis?
40:41Well, yeah, the only way I can answer this is that I agree with Jerry's earlier statement that the low that we're working
40:50off of is the
40:511974 low and
40:54there has to be some proof that the
40:58the
40:59rise from
41:011982 to 83
41:0384 was not a final top
41:07This has to be proved when you look at the S&P or the value line indexes
41:15There is a chance
41:17again, the markets have to prove it but there's a chance that that was the final leg up in the market and
41:23That will do no more than come up maybe by 20 or 30 points and take out
41:28The highs that the Dow made and then we could go into a horrendous bear market
41:33But until the market proves it we just have to wait it out
41:37So I don't have any
41:40Expectations of it going higher than the 1297 in the next six months
41:44So if I can take a moment
41:46Dan said very clearly that after final top is made and you have a sharp decline you have a secondary reaction that occurs
41:53well, I believe that the
41:55Reaction we've just seen from 1080 to the 1260 level would definitely qualify as a secondary reaction
42:02Going on and since you made a lower top for right now
42:06At least you'd have to give the benefit of the doubt to the downside jury
42:09I'm gonna have to interrupt you say business here, but we'll just continue this discussion in a very few moments
42:13So stay stay tuned here in FNN
42:15All right, we're back now on money talk for kind of a some nation here where our guests are dr. Jerome Balmer and his partner in the Investment Center
42:21That's a Los Angeles area bookstore that specializes in
42:25Investment books and we have Phyllis count also who's an expert in Ghan theory that we've been discussing here for an hour and Jim
42:31We're gonna have a little bit of a chat with him and then we're gonna have a little bit of a chat with
42:35Jim and then we'll have a little bit of a chat with him and then we'll have a little bit of a chat with
42:39Investment books and we have Phyllis count also who's an expert in Ghan theory that we've been discussing here for an hour and Jerry
42:45You say that he wrote five books. Are there any popular editions of them or what?
42:50Yes, there is right now currently on the market
42:53You will have Billy Jones's reprints of truth of the stock tape 45 years in Wall Street
42:59And how to make profits and commodities I might add in 45 years in Wall Street that there's two books combined in one
43:07The Wall Street stock no part of the new stock
43:11Trend detector is also part of 45 years in Wall Street
43:16It is two books that have been combined into one. Yeah, you've got some first edition signed books. Will you take for him?
43:22Not for sale are though not for sale
43:24Okay, so how many Ghan theory experts are there? Do you really know?
43:28It's really hard to say because there are there are many people who are trading today who learned
43:34About Ghan from Ghan who are students of his and many of these people
43:40After they learned his methods have never worked again, and they're just quietly trading in a non-visible way
43:46then there are some visible people Jerry and myself and a few others, but
43:52It as far as the universe of traders. There are very few. Okay, Jerry
43:57You said you wouldn't take any amount of money for it for your first edition signed
44:00All right now you have to realize that wouldn't get Ghan publishes own books
44:04Yeah, so that when you say how many are there there's no way of really knowing
44:08But I would have guessed only the fact that you're talking about the first work being done in 1923
44:13Maybe 5,000 would be a large number right based on that era then his next work done in 1930 the Wall Street
44:21stock
44:22Selector again five to six thousand copies
44:25Stock
44:27Selector again five to six thousand copies his next work done in
44:321939 the new stock trend detector, maybe ten thousand issues and then his
44:381941 original how to make profits and commodities maybe twenty thousand so how many have survived this time?
44:45I would say probably a number of the hundreds certainly very rare books to say the least
44:51and that in
44:53The original books, there's nothing different that's been added or subtracted from in the reprint
44:58So you're not getting less only from a collector's point of view is the value of the first edition
45:04That's what it should be stressed a first edition is like any antique its value is in its antiquity
45:11However for the information the reprints contain everything that you'll find in the original issue. Okay, we got a couple minutes less
45:18Let's kind of sum up here Phyllis. We've said this before but if we can't for viewers that are just coming
45:22What is your gun? Mr. Gann tell you that about the future of the stock market right now stock market and precious metal?
45:27Let's take those two. All right, and the very near term
45:31The stock market will probably make another leg down
45:36and bottom out around
45:39Christmas for the traditional Christmas rally
45:43another brief rally and then in February or March is when the
45:48The more important cycles are due and by then we could easily be at that 1080 to 1030 level that we discussed
45:56So that's the stock market. So overall right now the trend is down. Yes
46:01the precious metals as we discussed earlier, there are some major cycles through the
46:07Long-term cycles that I've studied that indicate between December 21st and January 21st
46:14We could indeed have a 60-month low
46:17Jerry you just about an agreement here aren't you very much? So except one thing that I think should be brought forward
46:22There's always cross currents in the market. Well, not all stocks go down just because the Dow's going down many times stocks will be going
46:30up
46:31counter-cyclical to the Dow going down and the 19 the 1929 top after the majority of stocks had topped out or were heading down
46:39You had many many stocks
46:41Gold stocks that went on to new highs and they were those were the laggards of the bull market that had expired in 29
46:48So that one thing everybody should understand is that while the Dow might be going down
46:53I wouldn't sell out of stocks
46:54I owned unless I had a very good reason and I don't mean just
46:58Emotionally unless the trend of the stocks turned from an uptrend to a downtrend
47:03And Phyllis we only have 30 seconds. I guess I disagree with that
47:06No, I wouldn't at all because individual stocks as opposed to the indexes themselves
47:12Can be quite different. That's why now trading the futures indexes. You don't have to
47:18the indices
47:20Make it easy for you not to have to select a stock. Okay, we have to go off on that Phyllis Jerry
47:25We thank you very much talking about. Oh, I'll call it an esoteric theory. Maybe it's not to you
47:29We haven't talking about Gann theory. Our guests have been dr. Jerome palmering
47:33He's a partner in the investment center a bookstore in LA and Phyllis Khan who has gone theory again theory analyst and join us tomorrow, please
48:03You
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