Election Forecaster Allan Lichtman Has Made His 2024 Pick

Renowned presidential election forecaster Allan Lichtman has made his call for 2024. Veuer’s Matt Hoffman reports.

Transcript

00:00A renowned election forecaster has made his call for 2024.

00:04This is American University professor Alan Lichtman.

00:07Kamala Harris will become the first woman president of the United States.

00:12Lichtman is the creator of what he calls the 13 keys system.

00:16It's a set of 13 true or false statements,

00:19each of which, if true, favors the incumbent party in a presidential contest.

00:23The statements include, for example,

00:24there is no significant third party or independent campaign

00:28and the economy is not in recession during the election campaign.

00:31The 13 keys have accurately predicted nine out of the last 10 elections.

00:36The only exception was the extremely close Bush-Gore face-off of 2000.

00:40According to The Hill, Lichtman says that this time around,

00:43eight keys favor Harris while only three favor Trump.

00:46The remaining two are up in the air, those being,

00:48the incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs

00:53and the incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.

00:58Even if Harris lost both of my foreign military keys, failure and success,

01:06she still would be down only five keys,

01:09one short of the six keys that it takes to predict an incumbent party defeat.

01:14However, during the controversy over President Biden's candidacy,

01:17Lichtman was strongly against a change of candidates.

01:20Democrats really only chance to win, contrary to everything you've heard,

01:25is with Biden running.

01:27He now seems to have changed his mind.

01:29The Democrats finally got smart and united behind Harris.

01:33And with Biden no longer front and center,

01:35I think that dampened the incentive for social unrest.

01:42In a New York Times video announcing his pick,

01:44Lichtman said,

01:45that's my prediction for this race, but the outcome is up to you.

01:48So get out and vote.