BetQL Boost of the Day: Insights on Trea Turner and the Phillies

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BetQL betting experts weigh in on where you should place your money on the upcoming MLB and WNBA games

Transcript

00:00Welcome to the Beck UL Daily Boost.

00:06I'm Lucy Burge of Beck UL and I am joined by Matt Horner and Kate Constable and we have

00:12one heck of an MLB odds boost for all of you today on the Phillies to win and Trey Turner

00:17to hit a home run.

00:19This is boosted to plus 900 at Caesars.

00:22What do we think of this week?

00:24I really like this boost actually today.

00:26I mean the Phillies have dropped their last two games to the Braves.

00:28So if they want to avoid getting swept, now is the time.

00:31So let's go Phillies.

00:33Also Max Freed is on the mound and he, the Braves have lost four of his last five starts.

00:38So haven't been all that successful with Freed on the mound plus against Freed this Braves,

00:44this Phillies rather, lineup is hitting 319.

00:47So they've had a ton of success against him.

00:49I also love Breit's, not Breit's Harper, Trey Turner to hit a home run.

00:54He's hitting three homers off of Freed throughout his career.

00:58He's slugging 647 and it's hitting almost 400 against him.

01:03So he's had a ton of success against Freed.

01:05I think he gets going and that means the Phillies get going and get the win here.

01:09So works all around.

01:10Yeah.

01:11I don't have much to add to that.

01:13I mean the Phillies are a much better offense overall against left-handers this year.

01:17They have, they're actually the best team in baseball against left-handed pitching.

01:20They have a 122 WRC plus as an offense, which is just crazy.

01:24They're tied with the Orioles in that aspect.

01:27So yeah.

01:28And Trey Turner to get a home run.

01:29You just talked about his stats.

01:30Don't have a problem with this.

01:31A little bit of a sprinkle.

01:33Very nice.

01:34Get in on this odds boost plus 900 at Caesars and take advantage of our offer from BetMGM.

01:40Bet $10.

01:41Get up to $1,500 back in bonus bets if your first bet does not hit by entering code Lucy

01:46when you sign up for a new BetMGM account now and head to betql.com.

01:51Check out our exclusive sports book offers there as well.

01:54And of course, follow us on Twitter at Kate Constable at sharp underscore side underscore

01:59and at Lucille Verge favorite bets today.

02:02I'm sticking with this game and I'm taking JT Real Muto to have over one and a half hits

02:08runs RBI.

02:09I have a couple of bets in this game and I kept mixing them all up, including one with

02:13Bryce Harper, but JT Real Muto and Trey Turner.

02:16And I was like, oh, I want Real Muto over one and a half hits runs RBI and Turner to

02:21hit a home run.

02:22There's so much good stuff in this game.

02:23But this is one of my bets here.

02:25So he has hit this in his last five games with six hits, five RBI and two runs in those

02:30last five.

02:31And against Max Freed, he is batting 381 with 16 hits, including four home runs.

02:37And Freed comes into this one with a 3.62 ERA and he has allowed 12 earned runs over

02:43his last three starts.

02:44So I like JT Real Muto to go over on this.

02:48Lucy, we are like in lock sync today because I was going to take, um, um, who was it?

02:56Well, clearly we're not in locks in sync.

02:59Well, Trey Turner, that one we talked about before the show.

03:01You're taking that one as your...

03:02Isn't it funny?

03:03I keep getting like, I originally wrote this as, oh, Real Muto to hit a home run.

03:07And I wrote Real Muto as well at first, and then I was going to go to Turner and now I'm

03:13going Castellanos.

03:14Isn't that crazy?

03:16So like, I don't know why.

03:17I think we just have to come up big today because we love the Phillies.

03:20Go Phillies!

03:21Go Phillies!

03:22Like, what could go wrong, right?

03:24It's so wild.

03:25Yeah.

03:26Yeah.

03:27Which is why, um, for my best man on this pod today, I'm going to go over to the WNBA.

03:30I'm going to take the Atlanta Dream, uh, plus two and a half.

03:34I also think this is worth just sprinkling a little on the money line here.

03:37They're playing the Mercury tonight and the Dream have really been rolling since the Olympic

03:41break.

03:42They've won their last two games.

03:43They've beaten top teams, the Storm and the Sun.

03:45Those are great opponents to get wins against.

03:47I know it's a small sample size, but Atlanta is fourth in net rating and defensive rating

03:51over that span.

03:52It also sits in the half, top half of the league in offensive rebounding percentage

03:56and limiting opponents' second chance points is an area that the Mercury really struggle

04:01and they are dead last in that category.

04:03So, um, I think Dream can keep this one close tonight.

04:06They may even be able to sneak out the win if you want to take them on the money line

04:09for some plus money.

04:10There you go.

04:11Some WNBA betting.

04:12I'm going to go back to the Diamond.

04:14We're going to go with the Angels and the Royals tonight over nine.

04:18It's moving to nine and a half in some places, so see if you can grab the nine while you

04:21can.

04:22It's minus 110 at Bed Rivers when I saw that.

04:24Uh, this game is being played in Kansas City at the ballpark where a lot of offense has

04:28taken place this year.

04:29It's one of the highest park factors in the league.

04:31Winds are blowing in, which is a little bit of a detriment, but it's only seven miles

04:34per hour, so it's not too bad.

04:36Plus, these starting pitchers today are horrendous.

04:39Los Angeles is starting Johnny Cueto.

04:41He's making his debut this year.

04:43Last year for the Miami Marlins, terrible.

04:465.13 expected ERA, 5.20 expected FIP.

04:49His decline is obvious.

04:51He's getting older.

04:52He's getting up there in age, and I just do not see him at this point in his career being

04:56anything more than a below average arm at very best.

04:59Probably more of a replacement level type of pitcher, so I think the Royals, they're

05:03in their superior split as well against the right-hander in Cueto.

05:06They have a 102 WRC plus versus a 95 they have against lefty, so they're in their superior

05:11split.

05:12On the other side, you have Michael Lorenzen going for Kansas City.

05:14I've talked about his regression all year long.

05:17368 ERA, 4.70 expected ERA, 5.01 expected FIP, 81.6% strand rate, 242 BABF.

05:26I mean, he has all the ingredients necessary of a blowup coming.

05:30Angels, I know they're terrible against right-handed pitching.

05:33They have an 89 WRC plus, but I'm still willing to back that regression a bit.

05:37I think nine is a little bit low of a total here.

05:39In Kansas City tonight with these two guys on the mound, so give me the over nine in

05:44the Angels and the Royals game.

05:46I love that.

05:47Get in on this odds boost plus 900 ad seizures and subscribe to the Beck QL Daily Boost

05:52wherever you get your podcast.

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