- 1 year ago
IHSG lanjut menguat 1,16% ke level 7.212,13 Rabu (7/8).Pergerakan sektoral saham perindustrian, transportasi, dan saham properti menjadi pendukung utama kenaikan 1,81%, 1,63% dan 1,35%. Tidak hanya IHSG, rupiah juga menguat tajam 0,8% ke Rp16.030/USD. Dari global, Wall Street berakhir lebih rendah Rabu (7/8), dengan Nasdaq turun 1% seiring penurunan saham teknologi dan lemahnya permintaan dalam lelang US Treasury 10 tahun yang memicu kekhawatiran investor dalam perdagangan yang fluktuatif.
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TVTranscript
00:00RAKA JUNIKO, RESEARCH ANALYST, MNC SECURITAS
00:05We're in the market now with Raka Juniko, Research Analyst, MNC Securitas.
00:11Good morning, Raka.
00:14Good morning, Wiki.
00:16Good morning. Thank you for joining us.
00:18Raka, I wish you all the best.
00:20We're talking about the U.S. stock market movement,
00:23although The Fed showed a more doffish gesture,
00:27and the market was positive.
00:29But if we look at the closing data until today,
00:32the compact has weakened.
00:34It's quite different from the euro zone,
00:36where it looks like the compact has been closed and strengthened.
00:40What's your analysis like,
00:42and what caused the U.S. stock market to close and weaken today?
00:47Okay, back to you, Wiki.
00:48Indeed, if we look at the opening of the U.S. stock market,
00:53it actually strengthened, led by the stocks in Nasdaq.
00:57However, if we look at the U.S. auction treasury,
01:02its value or demand has weakened.
01:06As a result, the U.S. yield has increased by more than 3%.
01:13As a result, the U.S. yield has increased by more than 3%.
01:19So, how do you expect The Fed to do a bigger flower-seeding
01:25compared to their cumulative flower-seeding in 2023?
01:30They said that the flower-seeding will be higher in 2024.
01:36Indeed, if we look at it from a group's perspective,
01:39and from the available data,
01:42the probability of flower-seeding for FOMC in September is higher
01:49from 25 bps to 50 bps.
01:53And the probability is 72%.
01:55That's for September.
01:57And for November, it can go down to 25 bps again.
02:00And in December, it can also go down to 25 bps.
02:03It means that for this year,
02:06there is a potential for a flower-seeding of up to 100 bps.
02:09As a result, it will be a positive catalyst.
02:13However, it needs to be examined historically,
02:16where usually the decline in flower-seeding
02:19is not directly priced against the price of the stock.
02:22It means that for investors,
02:25when they want to do or pick up a positive catalyst from flower-seeding,
02:29it is hoped that when the flower-seeding has reached the lower level,
02:34only then can assets such as stocks with high risk
02:39can be appreciated.
02:41So, once again, it looks like for investors,
02:44it needs to be examined when there is a rise in flower-seeding
02:47because it has been priced in yesterday,
02:50and can start to buy when the flower-seeding has fallen
02:54according to the target.
02:56It means that there is a moment that is expected first,
03:00but most likely it will go there
03:03when there are more flower-seeding this year.
03:07Okay, Mr. Raka, if we look at the possibility
03:11or maybe the projection of the movement from the ISG,
03:13the ASEAN exchange opened mixed,
03:16then followed by the global exchange closure
03:20from the US and Europe, which is also mixed.
03:23How do you see the projection of the movement of the ISG today?
03:27Okay, good.
03:28Indeed, if we look at the movement of the ISG,
03:30it has been quite appreciated by the market,
03:33where yesterday the growth was quite significant, 1%.
03:37However, if we look at it technically,
03:39the current position of the ISG, we think,
03:41has ended up in wave B in the box from wave 2.
03:46So, we have seen that the power is relatively limited
03:49and prone to reverse correction
03:52to form wave C in the box from wave 2.
03:55So, we see that the power of the ISG is relatively limited
03:59and indeed more prone to correction.
04:02And for the level of support or resistance we set,
04:05the support is at 7023,
04:07and the resistance is at 7249.
04:10And indeed, if we look at it from a sentimental point of view,
04:13where the ASEAN exchange, even though it is the Bank of Japan,
04:17it has started to dofus its statement.
04:20However, we see in this morning's announcement,
04:23it seems that the market speculation is still overshadowed
04:26and also the situation again raises the speculation that will happen in the future.
04:31So, it seems that the situation will be one of the things
04:34that will be highlighted by the investors.
04:37Does it mean that the ISG will just go sideways
04:39or is there room for strengthening, Raka?
04:42Okay.
04:43In my opinion, the strengthening of the ISG this week
04:46is already relatively limited.
04:48And indeed, if we look at the performance in August,
04:51in the last 10 years, the growth has been positive.
04:55However, if we look at the start of the ISG in August,
04:59if I'm not mistaken, it was at 7325.
05:01So, it seems that in the last month of August,
05:06the level must be higher.
05:08So, it seems that from the market,
05:11this will tend to be corrected
05:14and finally, purchase can be made.
05:16Maybe in the middle of August,
05:18until later at the end of August,
05:20there can be a bullish and a break from the 7325 level.
05:25That's it.
05:26Okay.
05:27Sentimentally, maybe the one who seems to be a supporter
05:30in your opinion,
05:31other than a more certain certainty
05:34related to the breaking of the flower family in the United States,
05:39what else seems to be a supporter
05:43of the strengthening projection later in the end of August
05:47from your projection?
05:49Okay, good.
05:50For the statement, if we look at it,
05:52it's still around the Bank of Japan.
05:54Because at the moment, the market is still waiting for the decision.
05:57Because yesterday, unexpectedly,
06:00the Bank of Japan increased the short-term flower family.
06:04From 0.1% to 0.25%.
06:06And there is a grey area
06:08where they seem to want to continue increasing the flower family
06:11because they want to overcome the devaluation above the yen.
06:16And things like this seem to be a counter-investor at that time
06:21where if we look at it,
06:23Nikkei itself has dropped 12% on Monday
06:27and created Black Monday.
06:29And it will be the next anniversary.
06:31However, for now, the Bank of Japan is more dofus
06:35where it seems that there is one of its high officials
06:38who said that for this monetary easing,
06:41it is only enough to need the flower family at 0.25%
06:45and the rest will probably be more creative
06:47in developing its policies.
06:49So that things can be assessed positively
06:51and can support the movement of the ISG this month.
06:55Okay, not only the ISG,
06:57which is experiencing a significant increase,
06:59the Rupiah as well.
07:00How is this possible to be a concern
07:02and can be a momentum that can be used by the public?
07:07Yes, for our target,
07:09in August this year,
07:11the Rupiah will be below 16,000.
07:14Because if we look at it,
07:16the DXY or the dollar index has weakened
07:19and there is no longer a catalyst
07:22that can support the DXY.
07:25So we are optimistic that the USD-IDR
07:29or the Rupiah course can be strengthened
07:31below the level of 16,000.
07:33Is there an interesting sector to be highlighted,
07:35related to the projection of strengthening
07:37of the Rupiah against the US dollar itself?
07:39Okay, for the sector that can be highlighted,
07:42of course there is still the energy sector.
07:45How do we see this approaching winter,
07:48at the end of the year?
07:49And we see for energy stocks,
07:51especially coal mining,
07:52this is still relatively favorable,
07:54can be bought.
07:55Because indeed, like Adderall,
07:57this projection can reach the level of 4,000.
08:00In addition, there is one thing that needs to be highlighted,
08:03where the catalyst for coal is indeed more favorable,
08:07still originating from China.
08:09However, if we look at it based on data,
08:12where the demand for coal
08:16is dominated by India.
08:19So it looks like India will offset the indicator
08:22in China as its previous barometer.
08:25And of course this will have a positive impact
08:28on energy stocks,
08:29especially the potential of the rally
08:31at the end of the year.
08:33Yes, based on commodity
08:35and also based on export,
08:37the strengthening of the Rupiah value
08:39against the US dollar
08:40is an interesting thing
08:42to be used at the moment.
08:45Okay, if we talk about the sectoral movement itself,
08:49of course, the entire sectoral index is strengthening.
08:52Does this then indicate
08:54a signal of optimism from global investors
08:56returning to the capital market in Indonesia?
08:58Or what is it like, Mr. Raka?
09:01Okay, in my opinion,
09:03the strengthening yesterday
09:05is only limited to rebounds,
09:07technical rebounds,
09:08which happened when the weakness was almost as big as 42%
09:11on Monday.
09:13Even though if we look at it,
09:15in terms of year-to-date,
09:16the foreign inflow is positive,
09:18but still small,
09:19as big as 42 billion.
09:21And we see that there is no positive catalyst
09:23that can support ISG
09:25to move faster.
09:28In theory, when the optimistic investor
09:32at the current level,
09:33at the level of 7200,
09:35this is only as limited as this offset,
09:37only low,
09:38at least not only to 7300
09:40or even to 7350.
09:43It looks like this,
09:45so for the sectoral index
09:47that strengthened compactly yesterday,
09:49this is not only limited to technical rebounds
09:52that happened along with the weakness
09:54that happened on Monday.
09:56Because the catalyst is still tend to be limited.
09:59Okay, the steel goods sector
10:01once led the strengthening
10:03with TPIA moving fast
10:04and had a new ATH.
10:06What do you see technically
10:08for TPIA itself?
10:10Okay, for TPIA,
10:12where if we look at yesterday,
10:14it did strengthen quite significantly
10:16to the highest level,
10:18even at level 11225.
10:21However, there was a sale action
10:23at the end of the trade,
10:25then we see technically
10:27as long as TPIA
10:29is still able to maintain the psychological level
10:32at level 10,000 or 10,125,
10:36then TPIA has the potential to strengthen again
10:38to test the resistance area
10:40that was formed at the high yesterday
10:42at level 11,225.
10:44However, it should be noted
10:46that if TPIA later
10:48tends to break support at level 10,125,
10:51then TPIA will try to test
10:53at level 9,725
10:56to level 9,400.
10:58Okay, what is the recommendation for TPIA?
11:00Okay, for TPIA,
11:02the technical recommendation is still
11:04to tend to the weakness first,
11:06and we hope to pay attention to the support level
11:08or the support that was given,
11:10at the psychological level, at level 10,000.
11:12Okay, fundamentally, there is also
11:14one interesting thing related to
11:16the release of sentiment on the purchase
11:18of Shell Singapore assets
11:20which is expected to increase
11:22future performance for TPIA.
11:24What is the analysis like?
11:26Indeed, if we look at the quarter 1 yesterday,
11:28TPIA was able to run a joint venture
11:30with Gleancore Asia Holdings,
11:32where this is expected
11:34to increase the product catalog
11:36because there are many
11:38products that can be offered
11:40to the market.
11:42And indeed, if we look at the GV company
11:44between TPIA and Gleancore,
11:46it is expected to get a catering
11:48for oil mills
11:50where there is a potential
11:52of around 237,000 barrels per day.
11:54And also, if we look at
11:56the 1.1 million metric ton
11:58ethylene cracker,
12:00so the potential for historical
12:02value of this cracker can be
12:048-10 billion USD.
12:06Thus, it seems that this will
12:08become a buffer for TPIA,
12:10where if we look at 2021,
12:12sorry, 2022,
12:142023, and until now,
12:16the oil mills are still
12:18suffering losses.
12:20However, it seems that this positive
12:22can only be used by TPIA
12:24in the long run,
12:26not in the short term.
12:28Okay,
12:30Mr. Raka,
12:32we'll stop here.
12:34We haven't discussed the options
12:36that you recommended this morning.
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