- 1 year ago
Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS) mengumumkan hasil perhitungan pertumbuhan ekonomi kuartal kedua tahun 2024, yang mencapai 5,05% secara tahunan. Angka pertumbuhan tersebut melambat, dibandingkan dengan kuartal sebelumnya yang mencapai 5,11%.
Deputi Bidang Neraca dan Analisis Statistik BPS Moh. Edy Mahmud menjelaskan, perekonomian indonesia berdasarkan Produk Domestik Bruto atas harga berlaku mencapai Rp5.536 triliun, sementara atas dasar harga konstan mencapai Rp3.231 triliun. Dengan demikian, maka secara kuartalan pertumbuhan ekonomi hanya mampu tumbuh sebesar 3,79%.
Deputi Bidang Neraca dan Analisis Statistik BPS Moh. Edy Mahmud menjelaskan, perekonomian indonesia berdasarkan Produk Domestik Bruto atas harga berlaku mencapai Rp5.536 triliun, sementara atas dasar harga konstan mencapai Rp3.231 triliun. Dengan demikian, maka secara kuartalan pertumbuhan ekonomi hanya mampu tumbuh sebesar 3,79%.
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00:00Indonesia's Economic Growth in the Second Quarter of 2021
00:05Indonesia's Economic Growth in the Second Quarter of 2021
00:13Yes, ladies and gentlemen, the Statistics Center announced that Indonesia's economic growth in the second quarter of this year reached 5.05% annually.
00:22This number is slow compared to the first quarter of 2024, which reached 5.11%.
00:34The Statistics Center announced that Indonesia's economic growth in the second quarter of 2024 reached 5.05% annually.
00:45This number is slow compared to the previous quarter, which reached 5.11%.
00:52Deputy Minister of Finance and Statistics BPS Muhammad Edy Mahmud explained,
00:57Indonesia's economic growth based on gross domestic product at a current price of Rp 5,536 trillion,
01:03while at a constant base price of Rp 3,231 trillion.
01:08Thus, the economic growth in the second quarter of this year can only grow by 3.79%.
01:14Then, year-on-year, Indonesia's economic growth in the second quarter of 2024 grew by 5.05% compared to the previous year.
01:27This growth is lower compared to the second quarter of 2023, which reached 5.17%.
01:38Therefore, Indonesia's economic growth in the second quarter of this year is supported by strong domestic economic activity.
01:45Thus, Indonesia's economic growth in the first semester reached 5.08% or remained stable at 5%.
01:53From Jakarta, Harjopat, IDX News.
01:59Meanwhile, BPS also stated that the economic growth in the second quarter of this year decreased due to the weakening of the consumer sector in the community.
02:07The consumption of the transportation sector and the slow wear and tear of clothing until the preparation of the fasting month this year also affected the economic growth in the second quarter of 2024.
02:22Statistics BPS indicated that there was a year-on-year consumption weakness that affected the economic growth in the second quarter.
02:29Although household consumption still grew positively in the second quarter,
02:33however, the growth was not as high as the historical data, still affecting the economic growth in the second quarter of 2024.
02:41The Deputy Minister of the Kingdom and Statistics Analysis, BPS Mohd. Edy Mahmud, explained that household consumption reached 4.93%,
02:50but some communities experienced a growth that was not as high as last year.
02:55The commodity is the consumption of transportation and hand wear.
02:59Meanwhile, the sales of motorbikes are also recorded to be slow and the index of trade is not too high.
03:06In addition, the shift in some preparations for the fasting month this year made the growth in the second quarter not too high.
03:25Most of it is in March, but it is still in April.
03:29This Ramadan shift also affects the pattern,
03:35so that consumption for the preparation of Eid al-Fitr has been done in the first quarter,
03:40especially for food and drink.
03:43Perhaps some of the clothes have also been done in the first quarter,
03:46so there is a shift in the momentum of Eid, perhaps there is also a slight impact.
03:52Annually, the growth in the second quarter of 2024 is lower than the same year in 2023.
03:59In the second quarter of 2024, there was a growth of 5.05%,
04:04while in the second quarter of 2023, the economic growth reached 5.17%.
04:10From Jakarta, Harjo Padmong, IDX Jenu.
04:13Pemirsa, to discuss our theme this time, consumption weakness, economic slowdown in the second quarter of 2024,
04:25we have connected via Zoom with Mr. Rian Kiryanto.
04:30He is a senior economist and also a senior faculty from the LPPI Banking Development Institute.
04:35Good morning, Mr. Rian.
04:37Good morning, Mr. Pras.
04:39Greetings, sir.
04:40Greetings.
04:41Thank you for your time.
04:43We are also waiting for Mr. Roy Nicholas Mande,
04:46the Chairman of the Association of Indonesian Retail Entrepreneurs, or APRINDO,
04:50who will soon join via Zoom.
04:52Mr. Rian, before we discuss this, the BPS data has been released.
04:56Indonesia's economic growth in the second quarter of this year,
05:00what can we review?
05:02Is it in line with the consensus of the economy?
05:06If you say it's in line with the consensus, yes.
05:10But the consensus is in line with the bottom line.
05:15Because we have a kind of understanding that the outlook of GDP growth in the second quarter,
05:23which we forecast a few months ago,
05:25the range is between 4.9 to 5.2.
05:29If the realization is only 5.05% year-on-year,
05:34that means it is within our target range, our expectations,
05:39but it is in line with the bottom line.
05:41And that is concrete if we compare it with the realization of our GDP growth in the first quarter,
05:48which is relatively higher, which is 5.11%.
05:51Also what we need to review, actually, Mr. Pras,
05:54earlier in the data that was displayed, I also reviewed
05:58a kind of stagnation, stagnation of our economic growth,
06:03whether we look at the year-on-year growth,
06:07or quarterly, or quarter-to-quarter.
06:10If we look at the year-on-year, from the middle of 2021,
06:15we were up by 5 points.
06:17But the 5 points is a small 5 points, which is 5.1 in average.
06:22Then if we look at the quarter-to-quarter growth,
06:26it moves between 3.7% to 3.8%, quarter-to-quarter.
06:31Does this mean that we can conclude that our engine of growth capacity is only 5.1%
06:39in terms of year-on-year, then 3.7% to 3.8% of our GDP growth quarter-to-quarter?
06:47That is the highlight image that was conveyed by the BBS at the release yesterday, Mr. Pras.
06:54Okay, but what about the growth of household consumption, which reached 4.93%?
06:59And this is by year, it's slow, but compared to the same period last year, it's 5.22%, Mr. Rian.
07:06Well, I've been observing for the past two quarters.
07:10When the growth of household consumption is at 5%,
07:17it's almost certain that our growth will be more or less at 5%.
07:22That's why we actually have to keep, year-on-year,
07:27household consumption growth must be kept at least 5%.
07:31Because with household consumption growth of at least 5%,
07:35the share or contribution to our GDP total is less than 55%,
07:40it's almost certain that we can grow far above 5%.
07:44It can be 5.2%, it can be 5.3%.
07:47With a note that household consumption should not be below 5% year-on-year growth.
07:53That's as a kind of threshold.
07:55Secondly, from the point of view of the growth of fixed capital, PMTB or investment,
08:01in my opinion, there is no issue.
08:03In the first quarter and the second quarter yesterday, and if we accumulate in terms of semesters,
08:08the target of fixed capital or direct investment,
08:13both PMA and PMDN, is already on the right track.
08:16It has exceeded approximately 101% in proportion to our target.
08:22But from the point of view of domestic consumption, it is indeed weak,
08:26both from the point of view of household consumption and from the point of view of the government consumption.
08:30Because there may be a special note,
08:32the limitation of the democratic party for the Presidential and Legislative Elections has been completed.
08:36We just have to wait for the fourth quarter,
08:39which is the next democratic party, which is the General Election.
08:43That's my opinion, Mr. Pres.
08:45Okay, but if we discuss further from the BPS data,
08:48the slow household consumption is caused by clothing community,
08:52then transportation that did not grow as high as it did last year.
08:57How do you see it?
08:58There is also a slow trade and real estate index, as well as motorcycle sales, Mr. Rian.
09:04Well, we really have to monitor it,
09:08we even have to be vigilant, especially in the automotive sector.
09:12I remember a while ago,
09:14friends from Gai Gindo, for example, or a motorcycle producer,
09:19said that perhaps for the rest of this year,
09:22the sales target for both four-wheeled cars and two-wheeled motorcycles will not reach the target.
09:30I still remember maybe the sales of motorcycles,
09:33yes, perhaps throughout this year, only five to five and a half million.
09:36Then the growth in the volume of car sales or four-wheeled vehicles,
09:43maybe no more than one million units.
09:45It means that this is below the historical average,
09:48which is an average of 1.2 million car sales,
09:52then the sales of motorcycles is 6 to 6.5 million annually.
09:57Well, this is actually the specification.
09:59One more thing, Mr. Pres, from the construction side, I see,
10:02especially if we look at the property side,
10:05I also think it's relatively low,
10:08even though the multiplier effect or potential power from the construction sector, including property,
10:13is an extraordinary economic growth.
10:16These are some critical notes that I think should be studied more deeply
10:21for the arrangement of design policies in the second semester.
10:25Okay, this variant is interesting, a fairly comprehensive explanation,
10:28related to the condition that there is real,
10:30when on the field it really happens,
10:32it means that there is a consumption delay in the community.
10:35And now we have Mr. Roy Mande joining us.
10:38Hello, good morning, Mr. Roy.
10:41Good morning, Mr. Pres.
10:44How are you, sir?
10:45Good morning, good spirit.
10:46Good morning, this is Mr. Rian Kirianto too.
10:49Hello, Mr. Roy.
10:51We've been talking for quite a long time about the economic condition of Indonesia in the second quarter,
10:55which is still above 5%,
10:57but tends to slow down in recent times.
11:00The BPS said there was a weakening of consumption in the community.
11:04There was a transport sector, clothing,
11:07then there was also a slowdown in trade and real exchange rates.
11:12How about the real?
11:14We want to know from Mr. Roy Mande. Please.
11:18Yes, thank you.
11:19Of course, we are experiencing another anomaly,
11:23a condition where what we hope for
11:27and what we plan for, of course, has not been fully fulfilled.
11:33It can be seen from the deflation.
11:36This is what's interesting.
11:37In the second quarter,
11:41in the second quarter,
11:43the condition in the first semester,
11:46we can see that the deflation has been three times.
11:49Yes.
11:50The deflation has been three times.
11:52And this means that deflation and inflation are of course back-and-forth.
11:57Inflation is more prone to price increases,
12:00so of course the prices are higher than before
12:05because the currency is falling.
12:07Okay.
12:08If it's inflation.
12:09But if it's deflation,
12:10these are the characteristics,
12:12if it continues,
12:13we do not expect this month or next month,
12:16until the end of the year,
12:17the deflation will be an alert for the government.
12:20Because this indicates that the inability,
12:23or at the lower level,
12:25is called restraint.
12:27Okay.
12:28Restraint to spend because of inability.
12:31Now this is not because the price is rising.
12:34The price that rises is inflation.
12:36But if it's deflation,
12:37it's their inability to spend money
12:39because of the limitation of income,
12:42or also, we know,
12:44the PHK is almost one semester,
12:47which is almost above 20,000 people.
12:49Yes.
12:50Then our PMI also fell,
12:52our Purchase Management Index fell,
12:54it's already 49.
12:55Yes.
12:56This is the first time after COVID,
12:59usually we are between 51 and 52,
13:02now it's 49.
13:03And it indicates that productivity in the old sector has fallen.
13:07Okay.
13:08And automatically,
13:09if it falls in the old sector,
13:10it will automatically fall in the new sector.
13:12Because the number of goods has fallen,
13:14smaller, lower than before,
13:16due to the inability of the people to spend money.
13:20Wow.
13:21So how long has this been going on?
13:23Then how big is the decline, Pak Roy?
13:25But hold on to the answer first.
13:26We will discuss it later in the next segment, Pak Roy.
13:28And also, we will break the variant.
13:30And viewers, make sure you are still with us.
13:41Yes, thank you for still joining us in Market Review.
13:44And viewers, we will see
13:45how the movement of Indonesia's economic growth
13:47in quarters, then in years.
13:50Yes, you can watch the full data on your television screen.
13:53Okay.
13:54In the second quarter of 2024,
13:57how was it?
13:58The fluctuation did touch a fairly high level
14:01in the second quarter of 2023,
14:03which reached 3.86% in quarters.
14:07Then it tends to fall
14:08to the first quarter of 2024,
14:10minus 0.83%.
14:11Then it jumps again in the second quarter,
14:14this year, 3.79%.
14:16Although earlier it was still in the normal range,
14:21as mentioned earlier,
14:23the fluctuation was in the range of 3% in quarters.
14:27Meanwhile, in terms of annual growth,
14:29we can see the following.
14:31From the first quarter of 2023
14:33to the second quarter of 2024,
14:36it touched the highest level at 5.17%
14:39in the second quarter of 2023,
14:41but it dropped again to the third quarter of 2023.
14:44And it tends to rise to the first quarter of 2024,
14:48which reached 5.11%.
14:50However, in the second quarter of 2024,
14:52it dropped again to 5.05%.
14:55And this is still in the normal range,
14:59as mentioned earlier by Mr. Rian,
15:01from the LPPI,
15:02related to the movement range of only 5%
15:05or stagnation of Indonesia's economic growth.
15:07Okay.
15:08We will continue the discussion
15:09with Mr. Roy Mande, APRINDO,
15:11and Mr. Rian Kirianto from the LPPI.
15:14Okay. It was interesting.
15:15From you, Mr. Roy,
15:17you mentioned about deflation.
15:19Actually, since when
15:21has this been monitored by APRINDO?
15:24And then, how far is it?
15:26Finally, is there a weakness
15:28if you say this is the purchasing power,
15:31the inability of the people to consume?
15:34Please, Mr. Roy.
15:37Yes.
15:38So, if we know that this deflation
15:40creates a kind of signal
15:43that the problem of the economy
15:47needs to be closely monitored.
15:50Because there are only two things that cause deflation.
15:53The decline of consumer demand
15:55due to the inability,
15:57the decline of consumer demand
15:59or the excess production capacity.
16:02These two things cause deflation
16:04in general globally and also in Indonesia.
16:06Of course, there must be some policies
16:09that break or become a solution.
16:11This is what we hope for.
16:13So that it happens again,
16:16inflation is normal, 3% plus or minus 1%.
16:20Now, of course, there are policies
16:23that we call our two policy populists,
16:25monetary and fiscal.
16:27Monetary, of course, it's time
16:29for Bank Indonesia
16:31to pay attention to the flower tribe.
16:33Because the flower tribe now in the banking sector
16:36has started to rise,
16:38even though the entire bank is not stable.
16:40But there have been increases
16:42due to our BI rate
16:44which is still lagging at 6.25.
16:47Now, of course, it's time to pay attention
16:49to how the flower size reduction
16:52from this deflation
16:53can lower the flower tribe in Indonesia.
16:55Of course, this is the job of the central bank.
16:57Then, how about the fiscal policy?
17:00How to arrange government spending?
17:02This is important.
17:03Because government spending from year to year
17:05has never reached 100%
17:07of the budget of state spending
17:09that has been planned by the government.
17:11Okay.
17:12Now, how does the government
17:14pay for infrastructure,
17:16then also other programs
17:18that create jobs,
17:20especially for our brothers and sisters
17:22who are affected by the central bank,
17:24this is the main thing, of course.
17:26And giving tax incentives.
17:28Now, this is related to how
17:31companies or corporations
17:33can survive in this demon-weakening situation.
17:37This weakening of consumer demand.
17:39And, of course, lastly,
17:41encouraging investment.
17:43Encouraging investment
17:45so that the stimulus program
17:48for the ease of business
17:51or export promotion
17:53becomes a very significant thing.
17:56Okay, Mr. Roy.
17:57This is interesting.
17:58If from the economic perspective,
17:59how about the deflationary signals
18:01that occurred in the last three months?
18:03Then, reflected by our PMI manufacturers
18:05that have left the level of expansion, Mr. Arian.
18:09I agree with what Mr. Roy said earlier,
18:13about weakening of purchasing power.
18:16It could be part of delaying the purchase
18:19because of being cautious.
18:21Attacking the uncertainty of the future.
18:23Especially related to the replacement process
18:26or the transition of this government.
18:28I read this from the perspective of businessmen.
18:32Okay.
18:33Another situation is that
18:35purchasing power is also discounted.
18:37From what we read,
18:39there are two indicators that are hard for us to avoid.
18:42Every day, we are informed about
18:44the decision on employment.
18:46Right?
18:47That's one thing.
18:48Second,
18:49if we read about
18:51job fair events,
18:53there are tens of thousands of young people,
18:56fresh graduates,
18:58who are competing to get a job.
19:01From that, we can read
19:03how big the job fair supply is.
19:07But the supply of new employees is very limited.
19:12Why?
19:14Because,
19:15we remember, Mr. Roy,
19:17a few months ago,
19:19not a few months,
19:20about two years ago,
19:21after we got out of the pandemic,
19:23we entered the endemic era,
19:25our PMI reached a high number,
19:2853, something.
19:31At that time,
19:32our engine of growth was amazing.
19:34We grew to 5, almost 5.2,
19:36as far as I remember.
19:37But going forward,
19:38gradually,
19:40without us realizing it,
19:41our PMI continued to plummet.
19:44Indeed, the decline was not sharp.
19:46Because the decline was not sharp,
19:47maybe people were a bit confused.
19:49Ah, it's still above the 50 threshold.
19:52But when the latest Standard & Poor's figure
19:55stated that our PMI was 49.3,
19:58everyone woke up.
20:00Wow, this is already in the contraction phase.
20:03Of course, with the implications,
20:06that is,
20:07some people lost their jobs,
20:09some lost their purchasing power, etc.
20:11That's what made the
20:13Consumer Employment Index,
20:15Producer Employment Index,
20:16it also fell.
20:17So, this is a parallel.
20:18Each data confirms each other,
20:21confirms or strengthens each other.
20:23Therefore,
20:25from the government side,
20:27there must be a kind of breakthrough.
20:30A breakthrough,
20:31such as in the second semester,
20:33what is it called,
20:34threshold for example,
20:36household consumption growth,
20:37it is maintained,
20:38don't let it keep going down,
20:39for example,
20:40up to 4.3 or 4.4.
20:42Maintained at least 5%.
20:44Because that's the key for us to maintain
20:46our GDP growth
20:485% or so.
20:49Well, the rest later from investment,
20:52also added from
20:53export, reduce import.
20:55Well, especially what Mr. Roy said earlier,
20:57indeed in investment,
20:59it's on track,
21:01on track, no issue.
21:02Well, I will run to the tax.
21:04Yes, because the tax must take a role.
21:06Although from the tax side,
21:07for APBN,
21:09its nature is to provide stimulus,
21:11or stimulus,
21:12but if the threshold for consumption
21:14is also not optimal,
21:15Mr. Roy was offended earlier.
21:16Yes, this also gives
21:18a bad feeling
21:20to businessmen,
21:22let's say contractor entrepreneurs.
21:24Because if the government spending
21:26is really optimal,
21:27whether it's every month,
21:29every quarter, every semester,
21:30of course it will give
21:32momentum,
21:33or multiplier effect,
21:35to the real sector
21:36and its descendants.
21:37Well, everybody is happy.
21:39The job market is open a lot,
21:41the supply is good,
21:43the purchasing power of the community is also increasing.
21:45As a result,
21:46the first is healthy,
21:47the intermediate is healthy,
21:48then of course the dealer is also healthy.
21:50Well, this is the roadmap,
21:52or the journey
21:53that the government must work on,
21:55at least until this year,
21:57while we also follow the transition process.
22:00If from the monetary side,
22:02I see almost all sectors
22:04have been moved by the Bank of Indonesia.
22:06From the monetary policy side,
22:08that is, holding BIR does not rise again,
22:10even though the pressure is still great.
22:12Then from the macro-prudential policy side,
22:15BI does not keep doing
22:17some kind of stimulus,
22:19such as giving liquidity releases
22:21to banks,
22:22so as not to be afraid
22:24of the ice bath, and so on.
22:26Well, we just have to wait,
22:27Mr. Roy and all of you,
22:28from the fiscal policy side,
22:30what will it be like?
22:31There are 5 months left,
22:33because we still have time,
22:35while earlier,
22:36following the transition process
22:37later in October,
22:39then continued in November,
22:41there will be a interim election.
22:49For more UN videos visit www.un.org
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