MLB Best Bets: Dodgers vs Phillies | Full Monday Slate
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00:00The marquee matchup this week in Major League Baseball starts tonight in Los
00:07Angeles. It's the two top teams in the National League, the two best prices to
00:12win a pennant in the NL, and the two top World Series contenders facing off over
00:18the next three nights at Chavez Ravine in LA. The Dodgers play host to the
00:23Philadelphia Phillies. Neither team playing its best baseball as of right
00:28now. Los Angeles is 9-6 since the all-star break, but they started out
00:33winning five in a row, six of its first seven. They have dropped five of their
00:37last eight, but a series victory against the A's this past weekend. The
00:43Philadelphia Phillies snapped a six-game skid yesterday in Seattle to avoid a
00:47sweep against the Mariners, but the Philadelphia Phillies just 4-11
00:52since the all-star break. These two teams, Donnie, of course, faced off at the bank
00:57in Philly in the final week before the all-star break in the middle of July, and
01:02it was a resounding statement made by the Phillies, a three-game sweep over
01:08the Dodgers. What will we see this time as we change venues to Los Angeles?
01:14Take a look at that total. That's probably what I'm most interested in
01:16typically, but hey, let's get to the over at this point. I'm not going that way. I
01:19think, I don't think we get to nine runs, which means you're probably gonna get a
01:22push and or a win. The reason being, if we take a look at the pictures on the
01:25mound today, last 60 days, minimum of 20 innings pitched. There's 16 of those. The
01:30top two, excuse me, two of the top three pitchers on this card are going to be
01:34from this game. Number one is Glass now. Now, he might have a slightly higher ERA
01:38over the past 60 days, Ben, at a 4.61, but we don't really look at that number
01:42necessarily as an end-all-be-all. It's more that X-fit-minus number, where he's the
01:46best by far on this card at a 69. Aaron Knoll is third on the card at an 81. Both
01:50of these guys with manageable Sierra numbers and X-fit numbers, I think they
01:54might get the best of it, because you look at the Phillies roster. Loved what
01:57they did yesterday. We'll see if that continues, but also, they didn't do all
02:01that much against a really good pitcher, Logan Gilbert, yesterday. Sort of when he
02:04got out of the game is when they took advantage. You might be getting the same
02:07thing today out of a Tyler Glass now start, but also from a Phillies
02:10perspective, Knoll has been very good over the past 60 days and also that
02:14lineup isn't all cracked up what it's meant to be. Look, Knoll does struggle a
02:17little bit with left-handed batters, so you're gonna focus on Shoya Otani. You're gonna
02:20focus on Gavin Lux. There's no difference in that. Kevin Vigio's even
02:24had a very good run over the past 30 days against right-handed pitching, but
02:27outside of that, it doesn't look like a fantastic lineup, so for me, I see the
02:31minus 136 price. It does make some sense. The Dodgers at home theoretically playing
02:35better baseball than the Phillies, but I do think this tracks more of an under
02:38gear on the West Coast in a playoff atmosphere. Yeah, seven and a half is
02:42that total dropping down from eight. The Dodgers remain that slight home
02:46favorite at minus 132. If there is a time the Dodgers are an underdog this
02:52week at home, LA has been atrocious as an underdog. They got swept by Philly as a
02:59dog a couple of weeks back. Four and nine for the Dodgers. The Phil's nine to nine
03:04straight up and even 500 booked as an underdog, and again, here is where these
03:10two teams stack up. The Phil's a six-game lead in the NL East. The Dodgers a four
03:14and a half game lead in the NL West. The Dodgers plus 160 to win the
03:20NL pennant. Philadelphia plus 230 to win the NL pennant. The two best
03:26prices. As we look, though, Donnie, for who will be that number one NL
03:31seed, the Phil's a favorite at minus 145. The Dodgers' second best price at plus
03:38135. A much larger lead for the Phil's before the All-Star break than where it
03:43is right now. Philly enters this midweek matchup in LA with a game and a
03:48half advantage over the Dodgers. Yeah, it'll play out the way it does, and the
03:53reason I say that is, the Phil's have a tough West Coast stretch when they're not
03:56playing their best baseball, and these numbers will change just like we talked
03:59about the Cy Young Award race here on a day-to-day basis. You're gonna see these
04:02numbers shrink. Hey, if the Dodgers sweep the Philadelphia Phillies, full-blown
04:05panic in the city of brotherly love, but you're also taking a look at down the
04:08stretch. We are now talking about that NL West getting ultra competitive with
04:13some really good teams chasing you, whereas the NL East, the Phillies just
04:16have that six-game lead, where you're looking at Atlanta saying, oh, they're
04:19injured, what more can they do, and then the Mets to see if maybe that, you know,
04:22fun run eventually runs its course here, but I do think getting to the playoffs
04:26and being overall the top overall seed has a lot to do with what your division
04:30is going to do, and I think you're gonna get a lot more pressure, Ben, from that
04:33Dodgers side than you are from the Phillies side when it's all said and
04:36done. Yeah, San Diego and Arizona playing lights out as of this moment.
04:41Philadelphia will head to the desert to take on the Diamondbacks for an extended
04:45four-game weekend series following this one in Los Angeles. After the Phillies
04:50completed the sweep over LA back in the final week before the All-Star break,
04:55they were 61-32. They were six and a half games in front of the
04:59Dodgers for that top spot. LA at the time just 59-39. The Fightin's have lost
05:05their last six series since that series sweep over the Dodgers before the
05:12All-Star break. Eight more games to break down for you around MLB. We'll do that up
05:16next for the Prop Perspective with Tom Vecchio and beyond. Some baseball
05:21breakdowns from Dottie Moore on the early line to come next. Live right here
05:25on the early line on this Monday, all-around Major League Baseball. A nine-
05:29game slate including a very peculiar matchup today in St. Louis. It's a
05:35makeup game. It's just one game for the Mets as they visit the Cardinals today
05:39in the loo. It is a virtual pick'em as well. Sean Mania gets the start for the
05:46Amazings. Minus 1-12. The Mets an ever so slight favorite in St. Louis. Nine is the
05:52total. The Mets lost their weekend set dropping their last two games against
05:58the Angels. St. Louis lost three of four losing its weekend outing against
06:03Chicago. Two teams in National League wild-card contention that are just
06:07trying to keep pace with the Diamondbacks and the Padres at this
06:10moment. Who gets a much-needed victory today under the arch? Should be a pretty
06:15even game here, but it might be leaning a little bit towards the underdog. Now
06:18typically that's never a good thing. We have Sunday night baseball where a team
06:21was playing on the road, then they got to come back home. And it's not
06:24necessarily, you know, playing that 7 o'clock or 8 o'clock at night. 5-15
06:28Eastern start here. So a little bit of a travel delay for St. Louis. But one of
06:32those pitchers, Andre Palante, that's on the mound today. Take a look at his last
06:3560 days, Ben. An 81 XFIP minus, which is good enough for fourth on the card
06:39today. ERA 3.12, XFIP 3.29. So very manageable numbers. Now I do like that
06:44offense here for the Mets, the way it presents against right-handed pitching.
06:47But if we are looking at some other numbers on Palante, Iso power number
06:51132, weighted on base percentage, 285 through his last 72 batters. He's really
06:55been doing well. So I think I have a slight pitching advantage tonight with
06:58Palante taking a look at over Sean Mania. But if we are saying, okay, have
07:03the St. Louis Cardinals present against Mania. Mania's a left-handed pitcher. He's
07:06actually done decent against right-handed batters, which again, the
07:09majority of the batters in this lineup will be from the right side. The only
07:11lefties, Burleson, Donovan, and Newpar, who actually have really bad numbers
07:15against left-handed pitching. It's one of those where you say to yourself, single
07:19game. It's not a series. It's a drop-in. St. Louis played last night. Maybe looking
07:23more towards the under. But if I had to go with a side, I probably would take St.
07:26Louis at home as the slight dog price, because I do think they have the better
07:29pitcher on the mound today. Nine that total as of this moment in St. Louis. We
07:35have one of the hottest teams in baseball since the all-star break, the
07:39Diamondbacks, 11-4. They have won nine of their last 11, and the best team
07:44currently in the American League record-wise, that's the Cleveland
07:48Guardians. Today they meet up in the land. Zach Gallin gets the start for Arizona.
07:52He's won three consecutive outings for the Diamondbacks and the D-backs. They
07:57rode favorite in Cleveland. What do you like in this matchup? They probably
08:01should be at this point. Now also, it's still hard to win on the road in the
08:04Guardians. You're a very good ball club. And if I tell you this, how about this?
08:06Only 21 batters that Logan Downs faced over the past 30 days. It's not a lot, but
08:11he does have some really good numbers. An 0-59 ISO against and a weighted on-base
08:15percentage of 277. But when you take a look at that season in totality, that
08:18bumps up to an ISO power number against at 244, and a weighted on-base
08:22percentage of 386 through 387 batters. And even if we're looking at the list
08:27itself today, 16 total pitches that qualify for my card, 15th out of 16,
08:31that's Logan Allen with a 122 XFIP minus over the past 60 days, an ERA above 5,
08:36an XFIP above 5, and a Sierra rate at 5. That's usually devastating there. Zach
08:41Gallin, we know, is a pedigree pitcher. There are some rain in the forecast
08:44night, thunderstorms, so always buyer beware. You say, I have the better
08:48pitching matchup, and by the third inning, you're knocked into a bullpen
08:51start. But obviously, you can't handicap that way in the morning. The better
08:53pitcher is Zach Gallin. I believe those numbers are correct. I'll ride with the
08:56road team here, the Arizona Diamondbacks. The Chicago Cubs took three of four
09:02against the St. Louis Cardinals. The Minnesota Twins beat up on the other
09:05Chicago team this weekend, as you would expect, sweeping the White Sox. They
09:10faced off tonight inside the friendly confines. The Twins, a slight road
09:14favorite at minus 116, over under is 8. You can see that's a pick-em price, a
09:20little bit of line movement in favor of Minnesota. What's the breakdown tonight
09:25at Wrigley? Now, typically, most people will say, like, well, you know why
09:29there's an 8 at Wrigley, right? That means the wind is blowing in, which it is.
09:32Some rain in the forecast, but I don't think it's going to affect the game
09:35overall tonight. 78 degrees at first pitch, which is nice, but that wind is
09:38blowing in, but it's under 10 miles an hour. They're not hurricane-force winds,
09:4125 miles. Like, boy, you get the ball in the air, it's going to blow from center
09:45field back into the infield. That's not the case here. So, I actually like the
09:47total. You take a look at Hendricks on the mound. He's a right-handed pitcher.
09:51He's actually done very well against right-handed batters, but a lot to be
09:53desired against lefties. And you come into that lineup just against
09:57right-handed pitching over the past month. We're talking about the Minnesota
10:00Twins. Warner, Miranda, Kepler, Lewis, Buxton, Larnach, and Castro, all well
10:05above their weighted-on-base percentage averages against right-handed pitching.
10:08That should help. Flip it over to the other side. Chicago going up against
10:11Festa, who hasn't had a lot of success through his 85 batters that he's
10:15face-bent. How about this? An ISO power number combined? 325. Disastrous.
10:19Weighted-on-base percentage, 402. Disastrous. You got some decent hitters
10:23in the lineup, particularly in the middle of that order. If we're looking from ISO
10:26power numbers that should be elevated, Pete Crowe-Armstrong, Cody Bellinger,
10:29Seyo Suzuki, Michael Bush. So, I look at that eight number. Forget about the side.
10:33I think we get nine runs or more, despite the wind blowing in at Wrigley, which,
10:36again, is under 10 miles an hour. It's not devastating windy conditions. I like the
10:40over here. Yeah. The highest total of the night in Kansas City. It is 10 in an
10:46important midweek matchup between the Royals and the Red Sox. Three games this
10:51week at Kauffman in KC. Kansas City, two and a half games in front of Boston for
10:57that third and final American League wild-card spot at this moment. The Royals
11:01playing better baseball as of late. They have won six of their last seven. They
11:06took the weekend series against Detroit. The Red Sox winning this weekend as well.
11:11Big matchup. Postseason implications. What's the look tonight in Kansas City?
11:16It probably would lean towards Kansas City because they do have the better
11:20pitcher on the mound, even if Singer isn't putting up unbelievable numbers.
11:23He's still at a 92 X-fit minus. He's been over the past 60 days, which is
11:26certainly above average. You take a look at Paxton. Every time he lines up, what are
11:30you worried about? Fly balls, not a lot of strikeouts, and when you're talking
11:33about that, at 92 degrees at first pitch in Kansas City and six-mile-an-hour winds
11:37blowing out, you might be in for some trouble. Paxton's a left-handed pitcher.
11:41He does well against lefties. Here's the issue. We've only got one lefty in this
11:44lineup tonight for the Kansas City Royals, and if we're just looking from a
11:47right-handed perspective, last 66 batters, a .214 iso, and a weighted-on-base
11:51percentage of .378. You know who you're looking at right in the middle of that
11:54lineup? Witt, Perez, and Renfro. .353, .333, and .400 iso power numbers
12:00respectively here. I can never bet on James Paxton, and I can never bet on him
12:04on the road. I do think Kansas City is the better team tonight, even though, you
12:07know me, I love me a lineup for those Boston Red Sox. I just don't think they
12:11match up as well, just because I don't think their pitcher is all that good.
12:13Should have a good night for hitting tonight, no doubt about it.
12:16Double-digit total, it is at 10. Donnie, before we let you go, to get to the
12:21money line to start off this new week, will it be 21 consecutive losses for the
12:26Chicago White Sox tonight in Oakland? Yes, they're gonna pop the
12:31champagne bottles in their own locker room tonight by taking down another L
12:34for themselves. We're doing it in reverse here, so we're gonna celebrate that.
12:39Interesting, I do kind of like the perspective. Talk to you tomorrow, more on the
12:43early line comes your way next.