Ditopang Sektor Teknologi IHSG Bertahan di 7.300-an

IDXchannel

IHSG terkoreksi tipis 0,02% ke 7.320,47 di sesi I Selasa (23/7). Indeks sektor teknologi +4,64% dengan GOTO +11,76% jelang rilis kinerja kuartal II 2024. BUKA +1,57% dan EMTK +2,83%. Sektor kesehatan +0,37% dengan MIKA +2,03%. Sementara sektor energi terdampak profit taking -0,50% dengan HRUM -1,61% dan MDKA -1,26%.

Transcript

00:00Thank you for joining us and in this segment, we will review how the trade is going on today.

00:06And we remind you again that you can still participate on WhatsApp Interactive on 08.12.8788.723

00:14as shown on your television screen later.

00:17And now we are connected via Zoom with Mr. Mahmoud Wafie, who is a Research Analyst at the Indonesian Security Agency.

00:23We will go straight to Mr. Wafie. Good afternoon, how are you, sir?

00:27Good afternoon, Mr. David. How are you? Thank you.

00:29Thank you, Mr. Wafie, for your time today on IDX Channel.

00:34Starting from the opening of the first session until a few minutes into the closing of the second session,

00:38the fluctuation of the share price that was quite high happened again, Mr. Wafie,

00:43especially in the 30 minutes of the closing of the second session.

00:47The weakening was deeper, I mean, it was up to 7,293 a few minutes ago,

00:53but the current position of the share price is back moving above the level of 7,300.

00:59How crucial is the support level of 7,300 when the share price is able or not to close at that level

01:08at the closing of the second session?

01:10Yes, actually, in my opinion, the level of 7,300 is more to the psychological level.

01:16And actually, another more crucial level is the resistance, which is at 7,400,

01:23where the number of resistance at 7,400 can be the highest level of the IHSG for this year.

01:30And indeed, although the level of 7,300 earlier was indeed a psychological level,

01:36I still see that there is still a potential for correction for the IHSG,

01:40considering that the movement of the IHSG has rallied quite high in the last month,

01:46so it is normal for the IHSG to swing or make a technical correction.

01:53What is the next support and resistance level, sir?

01:57For the support level, it is currently closest to the level of 7,300 with a resistance of 7,400.

02:03However, if the level of 7,300 is passed, then the next support level is at the level of 7,200.

02:10Okay, how do you see the position of investors today?

02:14Are they still waiting for the next U.S. economic indicators

02:19to look at the direction of the Bunga The Fed policy?

02:23After all, there will be inflation data later,

02:25later at night there will also be some important agendas that will be released.

02:29Mr. Wafi, what is your analysis?

02:31Yes, indeed, I see that investors currently tend to act more actively,

02:35it can be seen from the value of transactions,

02:37if we look at my notes today, it is around 7.5 trillion,

02:42the value of our IHSG transactions today,

02:44relatively lower than the average daily from the beginning of the year,

02:48in the range of 8-9 trillion per day.

02:51So it does indicate that investors seem to be more active,

02:57maybe waiting for further catalysts,

02:59whether it is a macro catalyst, as mentioned by Mr. David,

03:02data from the United States,

03:04other than that, maybe also waiting for data from other financial institutions.

03:08That's right, some financial institutions have released,

03:11but the Sambicap is still not available, it seems.

03:15Mr. Wafi, in the midst of a fluctuating movement in the housing market,

03:18the technology sector leads in terms of power, 4% in the first session,

03:24quite significant.

03:25The housing market is more under pressure

03:27because Goto's power is also more limited.

03:30Your analysis, the strength of the technology sector

03:33throughout the recent days,

03:35are we quite left out, sir,

03:37compared to the global technology sector,

03:39which has several times set a record,

03:43especially in the United States?

03:45Okay, there are actually several factors.

03:47First, if we look at the performance from the beginning of the year compared to yesterday,

03:51the technology sector is perhaps the sector with the worst performance

03:55compared to other sectors in the IHSG.

03:57Then, the second reason is that the technology sector,

04:01in terms of valuation, is actually relatively cheaper at the moment.

04:04So, Mr. David mentioned, with the flexibility of Goto,

04:07maybe now it's around 1.3 times.

04:09So, in terms of valuation, it's really not too expensive

04:13with the current valuation.

04:15And it's just a matter of waiting for a positive catalyst.

04:17And the third reason, if we look at the last few times,

04:21we started to see a slight change in assumptions

04:25from the plan to change the fat rate.

04:28Where, if we look at the US economy,

04:31now it's more calculating or estimating

04:35the fat rate can start to decline in September.

04:38That then becomes a positive catalyst

04:40also for sectors that are sensitive to flower prices.

04:43One of them is the technology sector.

04:47Okay, let's go straight to Goto.

04:49Mr. Wafi, your analysis with the significant strengthening

04:51that happened today.

04:53Although, at the end of the second session,

04:55the strength is more limited at 7.84%.

04:58Just now, it was above 11%.

05:00The action was bought by foreign investors.

05:02Then, is this also an investor's assumption

05:07that the Goto industry will tend to recover again?

05:10Because if I'm not mistaken, on July 30,

05:12the second quarter will be released, right, Mr. Wafi?

05:14Yes, there is indeed an assumption towards the future.

05:17Although, if we look towards the profit,

05:19it looks like the journey is still quite long.

05:22Up until now, it still has a clean loss.

05:25That's why, if we look at it,

05:27Mr. David mentioned that the price-to-earning ratio

05:29is still negative.

05:30That's because it still has a clean loss.

05:33However, with the change in macro-assumption,

05:38it is also expected to give a positive catalyst

05:41for the outlook performance in the future.

05:44So that later, at least a little,

05:46a lot can start to go towards positive

05:49in terms of performance.

05:50That's what the investors assume,

05:53in terms of technology, especially Goto.

05:55And for Goto itself,

05:56if I see there is a potential rebound,

06:00it must continue.

06:01At least to reach the resistance level,

06:03around level 61,

06:04that is the closest resistance level to Goto.

06:07Okay, what kind of recommendation, Mr. Wafi,

06:09with the significant increase that happened today?

06:13Yes, for the current level, it is still well recommended.

06:16Anticipating that there may be a swing,

06:19because today's intention is to increase it to 7.8%.

06:22Maybe the swing can go to support around 52.

06:26So if it hasn't entered yet,

06:28it can be considered if it wants to enter around level 52.

06:32Later, with the closest resistance target at 61.

06:36Okay, is there a chance for Goto, sir,

06:39to break through to level 60 again?

06:42With the highest level, I mean today,

06:45to Rp. 57 per share.

06:48Yes, of course there is a potential like that.

06:51However, is it sustainable?

06:53It may have to be supported by fundamental or macro data.

06:59Okay, but from the child's point of view,

07:02what is it like for Goto?

07:04Is it true that in the second semester,

07:06the prospect will be better, sir?

07:08Also considering the prospect of a decrease

07:10from the Bunga Devait tribe,

07:12then followed by the Indonesian Bank tribe later?

07:16Actually, if we look at the operational data,

07:18there has been a trend towards recovery.

07:20There has been an improvement there.

07:22And I think the trend,

07:24it looks like this positive trend can still continue.

07:27Because at the data level, if we look at it,

07:30it actually shows a fairly positive signal

07:33in terms of Goto's performance.

07:35And it looks like it will continue in the second quarter,

07:38and it may be an additional catalyst for investors.

07:41Okay, sir.

07:42Okay, analysis of Goto Pemirsa,

07:44which today experienced a significant increase

07:47and also became a supporter of Indekarga Samkabungan,

07:50so that the correction that happened was not too deep.

07:53Although Goto's position is more towards the limit,

07:56there was already a review earlier,

07:58and again, the investment decision

08:00is still in the hands of Pemirsa ITX Channel.

08:02Mr. Wafi, let's move on to the BKEP Bank, sir.

08:04Today, it seems to slow down the growth of Indekarga Samkabungan.

08:08Although some BKEP banks

08:10are still moving in the green zone,

08:12BBRI seems to experience the deepest correction today

08:16compared to other BKEP banks.

08:18Coincidentally, there have been several questions

08:20on our interactive WhatsApp asking about this BKEP bank.

08:23Let's go straight to BBRI, Mr. Wafi.

08:26BBRI was asked, I will try to check first.

08:31BBRI has taken a position at 4,840.

08:35The prospect is by this week.

08:37Mr. Victor who is in Malang,

08:39can it still be held? No.

08:40Then BBRI was also asked,

08:42I will try to check first.

08:44Mr. Andri from Surabaya asked BBRI,

08:47in the medium term, what is the support and resistance?

08:50Please, Mr. Wafi.

08:51Okay.

08:52For the short and medium term,

08:54I still see there is a potential for further correction for BBRI.

08:58The level of support that I see is around 4,600.

09:02So it can be considered.

09:04Can it be held or averaged?

09:07For the short and medium term,

09:09it actually depends on each investor's strategy.

09:12But usually for short-term investors,

09:14it is generally recommended to take a profit first,

09:17then buyback around 4,600.

09:19But if you want to hold and average it,

09:22it can be done.

09:24Because if we look at the fundamental and outlook,

09:26BBRI is actually still quite solid

09:28if we hold the balance until the end of the year.

09:31Because the level of 4,600,

09:33I see there is a strong support level

09:35for the short and medium term.

09:37After testing the level of 4,600,

09:39I see there is still a potential to reach the level of resistance at 5,300.

09:42Okay.

09:43Mr. Victor, you had it at 4,840,

09:45but today's closing is at 4,790.

09:48Averaging at what level? 4,600?

09:50Yes, around the level of 4,600.

09:52Okay.

09:53Analysis for BBRI,

09:55and at the same time,

09:56Mr. Victor from Malang and Mr. Andri from Surabaya.

09:59Let's move on to the other big cap banks

10:01which today also become a burden

10:03for the joint stock market.

10:05There is BMRI, Mr. Wafi,

10:07where in the closing of the second session today,

10:09it is 1.12%.

10:11There is a question for BMRI.

10:15Mr. Andri does not mention where the location is.

10:19Has it entered the Jenubulli or formed an uptrend for tomorrow?

10:23Which direction for BMRI?

10:25Okay, the trend is actually bullish,

10:27but it has entered the area of the Jenubulli.

10:29The correction that happened today is actually quite normal.

10:32Because if we look at yesterday,

10:34this BMRI stock just broke out.

10:36So it's normal to make a correction.

10:39The correction I see can reach the level of 6,500.

10:43That is the support level for BMRI.

10:46It can be considered if you want to buy back

10:48or averaging down around the level of 6,500.

10:51If you want to be at the level of 6,500,

10:53the upside potential still points to the level of 7,000.

10:57Okay. Analysis for BMRI,

10:59and at the same time answering questions on our interactive WhatsApp,

11:02and again, the decision to invest

11:04is still in the hands of the viewers of IDEA Channel.

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