Adam Kaplan: NFL Expert Insight on AFC West Predictions

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00:00Adam Kaplan is our NFL insider.

00:02Everybody knows that by now everywhere.

00:04And he's all over SportsGrid.

00:05And he's all over coast to coast every week.

00:08Thank God for that.

00:09You can follow him on X at Kaplan NFL.

00:11He's been covering the NFL for close to 30 years,

00:15unequaled by his peers.

00:16None of them like him because he's so much better

00:19at his job than them.

00:20Secretly, they talk all kinds of shack behind his back

00:23that how does this guy Kaplan have everything?

00:26TV shows, popularity, fame, fortune,

00:29and tons of fans that follow him on social media.

00:33And he's on coast to coast.

00:35And they call me a bunch of names, too.

00:36He's out there saying they're on with that asshat Pharrell,

00:39this guy Kaplan.

00:40It's unbelievable.

00:42What we're going to do is we're going to talk to Adam

00:45before he starts his travels.

00:47He's going to every single training camp that

00:49matters in the NFL like he does every summer.

00:52And his wife isn't having any of it.

00:54Last year, he forgot his sunblock and he had a hell itch.

00:59That's when you have sunburn so bad that you have hell itch

01:02and you're freezing cold with the sunburn.

01:05Today, we're going to start doing one division per segment

01:09leading up to training camps, opening up next month.

01:11We start with the AFC West,

01:14and he's going to start with the scary Denver Broncos.

01:18Scary in that we don't know what we're going to see

01:20other than Sean Payton's big predictions.

01:23Well, Scott, they were in Payton's first year.

01:26They were 8-9 last year, a game under 500.

01:29He had not had a 500 record since 2016.

01:32But look, when you look at it, the odds makers,

01:34they clearly don't think much of him.

01:36They've got a 5.5 win total, and I totally get that.

01:39They're going to have a rookie quarterback,

01:40Bo Nix, starting at some point, whether it's week one,

01:42three, or five.

01:44He's going to start early in the season, if not week one.

01:47So he's going to be the guy.

01:48That's why they drafted Bo Nix.

01:50This was Sean Payton's handpicked quarterback.

01:52Noah was at McCarthy.

01:53He wanted Bo Nix.

01:55I tell you, if I'm talking to people,

01:56know about the situation.

01:58This is Sean Payton's guy, but around him,

02:00there's a decent young receiver core

02:01mixing with some veterans.

02:02You know, the problem with defense is lack of playmakers,

02:05lack of a pass rush.

02:06My personal win total would be six, so I would agree.

02:09It's either going to be five or six.

02:10I would agree with that with Denver.

02:12So how do you think Bo Nix will do

02:15with that kind of pressure in that football town,

02:18which I know people think that the Nuggets,

02:21because they want a title that it's a basketball town.

02:24They're sadly mistaken.

02:25It's always been a Bronco town and always will be,

02:28including the Avalanche.

02:29They don't matter either compared to the Bronx.

02:32Yeah, it's all about the Broncos.

02:33If they can get it right at quarterback,

02:34they're going to move up very, very quickly.

02:36But Bo Nix was a guy that a lot of teams

02:37had a second-round grade on,

02:39but the Broncos like him specifically, Sean Payton.

02:42But overall, Javante Williams,

02:43their fourth-year running back,

02:45final year was rookie deal.

02:47He needs to take his game to the next level.

02:48Denver, again, around five and up for six.

02:51I would agree with that too.

02:54Don't they just lack star players?

02:57They just don't have, the talent isn't there.

03:01It isn't there.

03:02And when you look at Denver,

03:03Courtland Sutton's a guy that I like.

03:04He's got tears left on his deal.

03:06They haven't extended him yet.

03:08Troy Franklin, who was Nix's teammate at Oregon,

03:10he's there, who's a rookie as well.

03:14When you really look at this team,

03:15you've got Patrick Sartain Jr.,

03:17who's an absolute stud corner like his dad,

03:20but that's really it on defense.

03:22Just a lack of studs.

03:23And that's how you win in the National Football League.

03:25It's star power and star players.

03:27They just don't have enough of them,

03:28I would agree with you.

03:29So let's move to the Chargers and Jim Harbaugh,

03:33and they are just giving him lofty expectations.

03:36And you and I both know he basically cleaned house

03:39and is starting from scratch.

03:42I don't know how they win nine games.

03:45The number's eight and a half.

03:47Are you buying Jim Harbaugh's first season?

03:50I don't think it's gonna be that successful.

03:52It never has been before.

03:54I'm not.

03:55Yeah, I'm not.

03:55He's a great coach.

03:56First of all, whether it's University of San Diego,

03:59Stanford, Michigan, the 49ers he went to Super Bowl with.

04:03You're right, he's completely changed everything.

04:05Jesse Minner, who was his defensive coordinator

04:07at Michigan, is his D coordinator here.

04:09Greg Roman comes out of not being with a football team.

04:13He used to be with the Ravens,

04:15who was in that Super Bowl in 2012 with Colin Kaepernick.

04:18He's back with Harbaugh.

04:19He's back with him now.

04:20It's gonna be a run-based offensive scheme.

04:23Roman's a phenomenal play caller

04:24when it comes to the run game.

04:26Not much at the receiver position.

04:29Defensively, their front seven will be okay.

04:32The problem is on the back end.

04:33As I understand it, it's really the cornerback position

04:36that clubs have evaluated that football team tell me.

04:39You struggle looking at that cornerback group.

04:41It's not gonna be good enough.

04:42Eight and a half win total.

04:43By the way, the over is minus 150.

04:47That's where the money is.

04:48I don't agree with that.

04:49I look at this differently.

04:50I look at them under eight and a half.

04:51Absolutely.

04:53I'm with you.

04:53And let me ask you this.

04:55That's the funniest thing I've ever heard.

04:56They have no receivers, yet they have a great quarterback.

04:59And they're gonna be a run team.

05:01Now, if I were Herbert, I'd grab my surfboard

05:03and say, I'm going surfing.

05:05If you're not gonna let me throw the ball with my arm,

05:07something's wrong with you.

05:09Yeah, and they did draft Ladd McConkie,

05:11who I'm a big fan of.

05:12But Quentin Johnson, you and I have talked about them

05:15from TCU last year.

05:16He was overdrafted.

05:17He barely played.

05:19The hope is that he'll start this season.

05:20But this is mostly a 12 personnel team,

05:24two receivers, two tight ends, and one running back.

05:26And you're gonna see Gus Edwards

05:28come over from the Ravens, of course,

05:29with Greg Roman and J.K. Dobbins.

05:31But again, this is a very average team to me.

05:33They're not gonna be over eight and a half.

05:36I'm gonna give Johnston one more crack with his talent.

05:40I'm gonna give him one more season crack

05:42at believing in him.

05:43I think that, you know, sometimes, you know,

05:47it's very overwhelming playing in the NFL.

05:50It's not playing at TCU.

05:52It's not playing college.

05:53It's not playing high school.

05:55This is the NFL where guys are paying for, you know,

05:58big paychecks and feeding their families.

06:00It's a different scene altogether.

06:03I think it takes time sometimes with talent to come around.

06:07I think he might be one of those guys

06:09that will get better as another year

06:12and more experience and different coaches

06:15that can bring something out of him.

06:17That guy has talent.

06:18I don't care what anybody says.

06:19There's no way I believe he's gonna suck

06:21as bad as he did last year.

06:22All right, the Chiefs, they win the Super Bowl every year.

06:26Go for a three-peat, by the way.

06:28I love their overtotal.

06:30Their over is minus 120, 11 and a half.

06:33Their schedule, yeah, they have a first-place schedule.

06:36Obviously, they won the Super Bowl.

06:37But it's not that daunting.

06:39And by the way, 17 of the 22 starters

06:42from last year are back.

06:43This is a, and by the way,

06:45the one issue they badly needed,

06:47we've talked about now for four years,

06:48where's the speed of receiver?

06:50Now they've got it.

06:50Hollywood Brown and Xavier Worthy,

06:53they made that trade with the Bills to go get them.

06:55Defensively, there is one issue,

06:57and it's a big one at cornerback.

06:59Remember, they traded LeJarrius Sneed, their best corner.

07:01That is my one issue with that football team.

07:03But other than that, they're phenomenal.

07:04They're gonna be right there with the Niners again.

07:06So bottom line is, when you have 17 of 22

07:10that have won two straight Super Bowls on offense,

07:13the key to this season is obvious.

07:16It's their health.

07:17If they're healthy, they're almost impossible to beat.

07:23Yeah, I mean, it's 17 of the 22 starters

07:24we're talking about on both sides of the football, yes.

07:27And look, Andy Reid's back, Mahomes back.

07:30They've had a tumultuous offseason

07:31with off-the-field issues.

07:32They'll get Raishi Rice.

07:34He's gonna play this season.

07:35The question is, how long is the suspension's gonna be?

07:37But they're loaded receiver now.

07:39It's not all on Rice.

07:41It's on a lot of guys collectively.

07:43And of course, Kelsey's back once again,

07:45who's 35 years old.

07:46But they're gonna be phenomenal.

07:48And again, they're gonna be so explosive at offense.

07:50Finally gonna have a downfield passing year.

07:53I think they will rue the day they let Sneed

07:57leave to go to Tennessee.

07:59I think it's a huge loss.

08:01I don't think they'll live that down.

08:02They will have problems on the back end.

08:04He was a shutdown guy.

08:05Finally, the Raiders.

08:08Yeah, the Raiders at second half projected win total.

08:10The over is minus 125.

08:12The under is plus 105.

08:15Look, they're starting over at quarterback.

08:17Gardner Minshew and Aiden O'Connor could be for it.

08:19My money's on Minshew.

08:21He's making 12 and a half million.

08:22They're gonna be a run-based offensive scheme.

08:24Defensively, Patrick Graham is back.

08:26He's a phenomenal D coordinator.

08:27They've got problems at corner.

08:30They've got a good pass rush.

08:32It's gonna be right around six or seven wins.

08:34They're gonna be right around that total.

08:35By the way, very, very veteran coaching staff.

08:39Yeah.

08:39Put together a staff with a lot of veterans,

08:41two former head coaches, Bill Philbin and Marvin Lewis.

08:44But again, they're gonna be right at half.

08:45They're gonna be right around six and a half or seven.

08:48I agree with that.

08:48I like their pass rush in particular.

08:51And I hear O'Connor has the edge right now on Minshew.

08:55You think that'll hold water at the end?

08:59Minshew all the way.

09:00It's early.

09:01I'd relax on that.

09:01It's early.

09:02We haven't got to training camp yet.

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