Perbankan Big Caps Siuman, IHSG Bangkit dari Level Terendah Ytd

IDXchannel

IHSG anjlok 1,32% ke 7.046,21 sesi I Kamis (30/5) setelah sempat tertekan ke 6.984.979. Sektor kesehatan +1,22% dengan KLBF +1,65% ditengah rencana buy back saham Rp1 triliun. Saham perbankan Big Cap bangkit BBRI +0,45% dan BMRI +0,43%. Pemberat datang dari sektor infrastruktur -1,96% dengan BREN – 9,88% . Barang baku -1,13% dengan AMMN -6,63%.  Dari global, Bursa ekuitas Wall Street melemah, Rabu, di tengah kenaikan lebih lanjut imbal hasil US Treasury serta kekhawatiran mengenai waktu dan skala kemungkinan penurunan suku bunga Federal Reserve.Dow merosot lebih dari 1% dan mencapai level terendah dalam hampir sebulan.

Transcript

00:00Thank you for joining us.

00:02In this segment, we will review how the business is going today.

00:06We remind you again that you can still participate on WhatsApp Interactive at 0812 8788 3723,

00:18as shown on your television screen.

00:20And today we have announced through Zoom with Mr. Nicholas Dermawan

00:24as Research Analyst for Semesta Indovest Securitas.

00:27We will go straight to him.

00:29Good evening, Mr. Nicholas. How are you?

00:31Good evening, Mr. David. How are you? Thank you.

00:34Thank you, Mr. Nicholas, for your time on IDX Channel.

00:38Today, it seems that the situation is not good.

00:41Indekargasam Kabungan has undergone a deep correction.

00:45Not only Indekargasam Kabungan, but also Rupiah,

00:48today it has fallen back to above IDR 16,200.

00:52We will go to Indekargasam Kabungan later.

00:54Mr. Nicholas, technically, how is your analysis?

00:57Intraday, it touched IDR 6,984.

01:01And it seems that the lowest level is year-to-date.

01:05Okay, technically, we see that there is still a chance for the ISD to continue down.

01:12Actually, earlier in the afternoon, we also saw that the price had fallen below IDR 7,000.

01:17But at the end of the session, we saw that it was quite high, still above IDR 7,000.

01:25So, for tomorrow, we assume that the ISD is still tending to move sideways,

01:31because in terms of catalyst, we see that there are still no supporters.

01:35So, for the index itself, it is possible that tomorrow it will still weaken.

01:41In terms of price, maybe around IDR 7,100 to IDR 7,000, if we look at it like that.

01:47Okay, in the last three days, Indekargasam Kabungan has weakened by almost 3%, Mr. Nicholas.

01:53Because today, intraday, the weakness is 42%.

01:56Yesterday's traders also weakened above 1%.

01:59How do you see the impact on the movement pattern of Indekargasam Kabungan so far?

02:05Yes, if we look at it, the main reason is because

02:10first, the banks' shares are quite affected by the rise in the Bunga tribe.

02:18So, if we look at it, the index movement, especially the banks' shares,

02:25we see that it is very burdensome to the index.

02:29But if we look at it today, there are BRI and BMRI that have rebounded,

02:34so we see that the decline is a bit sustained.

02:37But we also see from other index burdens,

02:41such as AMAN and BREN, which we see that this BREN is in a special monitoring,

02:46then it also dropped today.

02:49So, we see that the index burden has also dropped.

02:51For the index movement, we see that

02:54the big cap is still leading the index to fall lower.

02:59So, for the structural technical analysis of the index itself,

03:04we see that the price is still unable to form a higher high,

03:09which is actually just low at level 7,000.

03:13So, the anticipation for Friday tomorrow,

03:17until maybe Tuesday, we can see the possibility of a decline.

03:22If the index fails to maintain above level 7,000.

03:27Does this also include a scenario when the inflation of the US PCE

03:32will be above expectations, Mr. Nicholas?

03:34Or is this just purely technical, sir?

03:37What I just explained is purely technical,

03:40if we do include a catalyst from the PCE,

03:43which will be waiting at night,

03:45which is a benchmark from the Fed to make a decision on the Bunga tribe.

03:51If we look at it, the PCE is also playing an important role tonight.

03:56Later, if it is above the consensus, there is a possibility

04:01of speech from the previous parties,

04:04rather than the members of the Fed,

04:06which is usually more towards the hawkish side.

04:08If we look at it from the CME FedWatch tool,

04:13the decline in the Bunga tribe this year continues to decline from June,

04:17and finally, it is estimated that the consensus of the CME FedWatch tool

04:21will decline to November or December,

04:23which will be a negative catalyst for the equity market, especially the IHSD.

04:28Okay, we will try to review Mr. Nicholas Samsaham,

04:31who is today's heavyweight.

04:32It seems that Samsaham dominates,

04:34which has the largest capitalization,

04:37including five major capitalizations in the Indonesian stock exchange.

04:41I want to go to the brand position first, sir.

04:44This is the second autorejection today,

04:47when entering the special monitoring board.

04:50By experiencing the same conditions,

04:53anticipating the continuation of the autorejection

04:56will still continue for the next few days.

04:58Where is the direction of the movement of the brand,

05:00and what are the recommendations?

05:03Okay, for the brand itself,

05:05because this full call auction will still continue,

05:08we see that the brand will continue to decline,

05:12which was reflected yesterday.

05:14Two consecutive days, today also ARB 10%.

05:17And if we compare it historically,

05:20the brand did decline a lot in January,

05:23until mid-January.

05:25So if we look at the cycle, it's like that.

05:28But in this case,

05:30maybe the investor will be more cautious

05:34because the regulation is tighter for the full call auction itself,

05:37unlike in January, when the business is more free.

05:40So maybe for the brand itself,

05:42we estimate that it can still go down to the level of 8,000 to 7,000,

05:46which is still possible,

05:48considering the previous decline in January was quite extreme.

05:52Okay, the brand has just announced that it will share dividends,

05:56will it also affect the yield later,

05:59or the stages of dividends that will run in the future?

06:04Yes, if we look at this, it will definitely affect later,

06:07but if the full call auction period is over,

06:10there is a possibility that it will be a positive catalyst for the price.

06:15So maybe for the brand itself,

06:17we recommend waiting for the full call auction period to be over first,

06:21then we can see again,

06:23how is the technical future,

06:25whether it still wants to be maintained at this low price.

06:28If we look at it, it will probably be a bargain hunting.

06:33Because we can see that the demand for this brand from the IPO is very strong,

06:38and the prospects are really good.

06:40Okay, from the brand, we move to Aman Mineral.

06:43Mr. Nikolas is also a heavyweight today,

06:46experiencing quite a deep correction,

06:48and it seems that Aman has also reached the highest level in the past few days.

06:54Any analysis for Aman?

06:56Okay, for Aman itself,

06:58if we look at it fundamentally, it's just fine.

07:02It's just that it was hit by a negative catalyst from a brand that is in a special monitoring.

07:07If we look at it, the characteristics of the movement are similar,

07:12the brand and Aman.

07:13So we are confused why the brand is in, the Aman is not in.

07:16So if we look at it, this is a profit-taking fester

07:19because it is anticipated,

07:21afraid that there is a possibility that Aman will be included in the special monitoring board as well.

07:26And it is feared like that,

07:27because in terms of characteristics,

07:29its price movement is quite similar to that of the brand.

07:33Okay, what is the recommendation for Aman, sir?

07:37For Aman, because the trend is still bullish,

07:39but the price is still burdened by negative catalysts,

07:42it is still technically down.

07:44Here, it has just formed very mechanistically,

07:46just gave a support level at 12,450.

07:48We suggest maybe waiting at the support level of 11,600,

07:53it may become a dynamic support level.

07:57In the future, the price will follow the price.

08:00If the price is able to survive above the support level at 11,600-700,

08:06it can be considered for buyer weakness.

08:09If the price is able to maintain above the support level,

08:12like the previous movement, like that.

08:15Okay, before we update the closing position of the second session,

08:18I want to go to the BICAP bank first, Mr. Nicholas.

08:22The volatility is quite high, sir.

08:25Becoming a burden, then also trying to be a supporter,

08:28then going back to being pressured.

08:30How do you see the attitude of the market players,

08:33especially during today's approach to these BICAP banks,

08:38which indeed, the behavior of investors is quite rare,

08:41more towards trading, it's really just a short term, it seems.

08:47Okay, if we look at it now,

08:49the banking cycle is trading at the ADEX level,

08:53as Mr. David mentioned earlier.

08:55Because it is a catalyst,

08:57since the increase in the ratio announced by Bank Indonesia,

09:00this will be a negative catalyst for banks,

09:04because there is a risk of an increase in the MPL.

09:06So for now, it is also possible,

09:09like earlier, rebounds, especially BERI and BME,

09:13we also see a short term rebound.

09:15So maybe the rebound is caused by the bargain hunting,

09:18and mostly the participation is from retail.

09:21So if we look at it, the rebound will be limited,

09:24and the possibility in the range, like BERI,

09:27there is a 4,700 resistance, there is a possibility for profit taking.

09:30Because it is indeed, the increase is also mostly retail, like that.

09:35Okay, analysis from the banks, investors,

09:38and hopefully it can be one of the references for you,

09:41and earlier there was also Brian and Alma Mineral,

09:43who today also became a burden for the Sabkabungan family.

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